Yu Energy Share Chat (YU.)

Amazing how everyone who posts like this, always sells at the top and buys back at the very bottom. Strange that...

Hope the multiple ID man who hasn't learned to spell without capital letters isn't reading this. Myself and rest of family sold part holdings at £19. Son & daughter paid off bulk of their mortgage. Then we went & filled our ISA allowances at £14.50. You is like supporting Oldham Athletic. Always keep the faith. !!!

Who knows with 6 trading days to H1 maybe we could be back to push £20

This is YU group anything can happen

Https://www.lse.co.uk/news/yu-group-aims-for-significant-scale-following-strong-first-half-cvk4j4kx1u4qa0w.html

Under 2 weeks till full H1 report and H1 dividend news. Will be good to hear how Q3 has been going, especially with increased energy prices - should mean higher values associated with new contracts signed... The unknown is will they be performing in line with prior years where H2 is significantly stronger than H1.

Lots of buying today, stupid auction for 6 shares so will open up 2.53% tomorrow. They keep messing around with £16 hopefully in the rear view mirror tomorrow

Very chunky. Someone is not prepared to wait.

Or possibly a fat finger trade?

And way over spread. They've had weeks to get in £2 quid cheaper. So, why now and why prepared to pay way over the ask? Rhetorical question.

Lots of dirty games played on YU, the question is why ?

Hmm doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work it out. Long and strong

Wouldn’t surprise me if this was related to Ricky46, who also owned a good few but constantly put the boot in.

Excellent, enjoy filtronic and trustpilot.

Maybe if you did some research you might understand the business a lot better than basing things on trustpilot. Maybe you should look at google reviews only 1.5 score there but then again only octopus score higher in the sector at 1.8. lol

Good.

Praise the lord we have you to save us lazy and short sighted investors.

I own Yu Group - I just asked peoples opinions on the trust pilot. I apologise for asking a stupid question in the presence of such a high calibre investor.

I feel a bit stupid entertaining a conversation with the next Warren Buffet… therefore, this will be the last from me.

Yu 's water business may not have any significance now but there's no reason they can't become significant in the future.

It’s a current vacancy they have in their website.

I thought you said they were one of the few with a water licence?

Yu are a water retailer as well as energy they provide water retail services in a deregulated water market they are a tiny company in the water retail market of zero significance right now

Hello

daveboy19 where did you get this information frm?

'Based in Nottingham, we are looking to expand our Team due to continued success & growth and have created an exciting opportunity for an experienced Water Business Analyst, ensuring an excellent standard of service is provided and maintained to our Yü Energy customers. '

Surely special and/or share buyback, as they put both in the 2023 annual report...

It is going to be interesting to see what happens in 3 weeks. A 17p divi is only about £3m. What will they be doing with the rest of the cash stockpile.

BK and the board need to start some communication on this and I for one am very hopeful that the interims will be where they start doing it.

Also huge growth in clients and turnover during spring with year low commodity prices which have since nearly doubled. Fastest growing in the sector and only on to report growth in turnover in H1

Forecast is 17p interim div

500% increase not bad for a boring utility apparently.

All depends on their forecast for the next year and the dividend payment. Last year they only paid 3p at this stage, if it's increased dramatically the sentiment should change.

So YU is 50% undervalued v peers on a PE metric. Yet the only one who has increased revenue so far in 2024.

The mind boggles

Yu only started paying dividend last year. They're going to increase it considerably this year and it's likwly to be progressive and stable in my view.

Is their dividend sustainable?

Unstable dividend track record

Fail

Is their share price liquid and stable?

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Pass

Do they have meaningful levels of revenue?

Revenue is meaningful (£460M)

Pass

Do they have sufficient financial data available?

At least 3 years of financial data is available

Pass

Have shareholders been diluted over the past year?

Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year or recently listed

Pass

Do they have a meaningful market capitalization?

Market cap is meaningful (£242M)

Pass

Are there any concerning recent events?

No concerning events detected

Pass

Do they have negative shareholders equity?

YU. does not have negative shareholders equity.

Pass

Are they forecast to achieve profitability?

The company is currently profitable

Pass

Are revenue and earnings forecast to grow?

Earnings are forecast to grow by an average of 8.3% per year for the next 3 years

Pass

Have profit margins improved over the past year?

Profit margins improved or YU. became profitable

Pass

Are they in a good financial position?

Debt level is low and not considered a risk

Https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/utilities/aim-yu./yu-group-shares?blueprint=3276860&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=cta&utm_source=yahoo

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investigate-y-group-plc-lon-105748874.html

FD EPS for FY is forecast @ 186p now since the spring low energy prices have nearly doubled and H2 always stronger than H1

So guessing here H1 maybe 80-85p and H2 significantly stronger anyway never mind the spike in energy prices since spring low so H1 way over 100p and maybe 120-130

FY dividend is anticipated to be 49p with 17p H1

There's likely to be a big jump in dividend and we may also get a special on top of that too IMO.

Can anybody work out the likely EPS for the first half?

...... in less than six weeks .

" results on Tuesday 24th September 2024"

"Strong organic growth continues underpinning outturn for the current year, with H1 24 revenue of approximately £310m, up c.60% (H1 23: £195m)"

This has been one of my best investments over past 3 years and have taken some profits, however continue to hold the rest as this will continue the epic journey 😊

Hi guys where’s discodave

I should be ready for a good top up this week

@SNN @Sparky Thanks for the post re Liberum, as I have said over the years, YU is a great investment and for me it is long term, I strongly believe that H1 report in September will vindicate the long term strategy - not only have they done well in difficult/dropping energy prices - but with the increasing energy prices over the summer they will deliver fantastic Q3 results. At some point the wider market will wake up to YU, and either through an offer from a bigger player or through amazing results and dividends we will see the share price 2-3 times where it is today.

Got this from YUs comms team will let you know the outcome

I would also like to thank you for pointing out the issue with Research Tree. Having confirmed that the issue does not lie with Panmure Liberum, I can update you that we are in engagement with Research Tree and will let you know as soon as the problem has been solved.

Sparks - re broker notes. I am looking on Research Tree, and cannot see Liberum's reports at all, not even listed as 'locked' for institutions. Seems like they've pulled the lot. Really odd, sorry have no explanation. Maybe changing broker?

UK natural gas futures have surged past 100 pence per therm, reaching their highest level in eight months due to significant outages in the UK Continental Shelf. Production in this area has been disrupted by multiple factors: the Bacton Seal terminal's outage has been extended until August 13, Bacton Perenco has cut its supply by 10 million cubic meters per day, and the Cygnus field is reducing output by 6 million cubic meters daily. Additionally, the St Fergus Mobil terminal will be closed from August 18 to September 24. Meanwhile, Dutch TTF gas prices have also risen due to concerns over gas supplies through Ukraine. The risk of military operations in the Sudzha region is exacerbating this issue, especially following Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, which threatens a vital gas transit point. Despite Europe’s efforts to diversify its energy sources, countries like Austria and Slovakia still rely on Russian gas transported via Ukraine.

I agree the significance of the results has been the normal sell the news, now we have gas over 83% higher than the spring low which will have a significance impact in a positive sense to Q2 numbers

Therefore in line will now be beaten if gas maintains this level or goes a lot higher again as autumn and winter hikes not even started yet

Https://www.mitonukmicrocaptrust.com/

July video update on Micro Investment Trust. GW points to the TU drop, as 'volatility'. But plenty of opportunity to keep growing its customer base. From just after 3.00mins. Makes me wonder if there has been some reassurances / discussions between them and the company.

Delayed trades from over a week ago now showing.

Gas now at a year high 93p a therm up from spring low off 55p a therm

70% increase and autumn and winter increases not started yet

That's the thing i thought utility companies do well during recessions unlike tech stocks etc?

Fill your boots time!!!

Funny thing is non of what is happening affects YUs business the only threat is that there is a recession bad debts may increase. This isn’t some debt ridden pile of dung with no cash. I find it funny to watch as have the patience of a saint and hold all my shares

To watch. Bobby needs to deliver come sept

No one has noticed energy prices are now at a year high and not even started the autumn and winter rise.

H2 new contracts will be significantly ahead of H1 almost double the March 23 low.

More big reported late trades

We have a big players eating up stock

100% buy from 1043 this morning look at the trade stamp and date.

With gas up 10% and Middle East about to explode what a results SP we are

£2m- Looks like a buy to me: bid was 1480

Judging by other trades at the time it looks like a buy? Anyone any other thoughts?

Massive delayed trade from this morning just popped up, £2m 99k shares

Thanks SNN no surprise there as expected, normal scaremongering. Covenants between businesses are BAU. Yet others would have investors believe the Shell deal is some what special which it isn’t

Having promised not to comment on the Shell deal further, new evidence has come to light. Smartest also had legal charges over the main subsidiary trading companies and covenants in place, very similar to Shell. This type of security is normal business practice in the utilities sector, given the sums involved in the monthly credit line.

"The Group entered an arrangement with a commodity trading counterparty, SmartestEnergy Ltd, in December 2019. As part of the arrangement, there is a requirement to meet certain covenants and a fixed and floating charge over the main trading subsidiaries of the Group, Yü Energy Holding Limited and Yü Energy Retail Limited.

Yü Group PLC provides parent company guarantees on behalf of its wholly owned subsidiaries to a small number of industry counterparties as is commonplace for the utilities sector." Note 23 of 2022 AR

Note 25 - Security

The Group has entered into Trading Agreements with the Shell Group in February 2024 to provide access to commodity markets. As part of this arrangement there is a requirement to meet certain covenants, a fixed and floating charge (including mandate over certain banking arrangements in the event of default) over the main trading subsidiaries of the Group, being YU Energy Holding Limited and YU Energy Retail Limited, and a parent company guarantee from the Company.

So YU breach the covenants (whatever they are specifically - the WC?) and Shell get the business.

Fully disclosed at note 25 in the AR. I have no more to say on this matter.

SNN / NG

Can I ask - if the business defaults on the working capital requirement (whatever that actually is!), then Shell get the business?, is that correct? or have I completely misunderstood.

Surely if that’s the case it’s important to know and understand the risks as holders!. I know I would want to know.

I agree

Anyway SP wise another big volume day, lots of stock moving around the last few trading days

Does anyone care if they are filtered?

can someone please explain why being "filtered" is considered to be a threat? bearded dragon got ****y with me today when i asked this question and the forum nutter keeps on threatening people with being filtered (look at his comments on the advfn yu chat where he filters nearly everyone ).

so what if disco, bd or anyone else doesn't want to read my comments. it is no skin off my nose. anyone who filters someone solely because thry don't like their comments must be fairly unsure of their own opinions. they cannot tolerate a different point of view. filtering someone (or at least threatening to filter) indicates a childish insecurity and the filterers imo deserve contempt.

Wood

Another one filtered, a poster that seems to actually be the “keyboard warrior” here.

Will see you all later next month and in time for the interims. Could be another decent trade.

Managed to grab 83 earlier.

Bearded dragon. In several people's opinion Disco's obsession with Rawson appears to be excessive. He has been asked if there is something personal behind it. I cannot see a reply.

Saint Peter, if you don't understand the term "filtered" then I am going to filter you. As for the unanswered question about the lack of recent BOD buys, there have been umpteen replies on here. Just try reading them.

Filtered?? What does that mean?? Can't you answer a simple question?

SP1

Wow!, PMSL

Have posted on ADVFN. Not clogging this board up.

Filtered

We are interested. Your obsession with Rawson and many years ago is at the best obsessional abd at worst indicates an unhealthy psychological condition .

So come on. Answer the question.

If liquidity is a problem, then surely buybacks will only make it worse.

@SNN, it will be very interesting to see what the board do next, if they have the cash then they may well go down a share buyback route to add to share holder value.

Liberum don't think they will in the latest broker note but then they also don't think a special dividend is on the cards either - which means YU just sitting on a growing pile of cash.

It would be very interesting to see what would happen if they did start saying buying 5k shares a day for a month or so...

You are correct, had missed those, so between £870-900m of control acted revenue for 2025.

@SNN, exactly.

Install meters, sign contracts, grab market share. This is a lean company, so can turn a profit when others can't.

YU don't control the commodity prices, but they are well in control of everything else. If gas commodity prices ever rise again, then YU will be sitting very pretty indeed.

Even under these conditions, it's producing a bucket load of cash.

Ipc - Yu had forward revenue at Dec 2023 of £306m for 2025 already (2yr + contracts signed in 2023). So you need to add that on to your figures! So, call it forward revenue of £900m at end of 2024. Which ties in with 100,000 meters target.

As I further think through the TU, the business model and medium term outlook for Yu is fully intact. The drop in monthly bookings is down to a drop off in pricing. They are set to almost double the meter count / double market share this year. Still looks like 2025 revenue will be over £1bn. Leverage will bring the net margin back up. This year is a year if investment to scale up. And if other competitors are as bad as Opus, even better for Yu.

Figures from the sale of Opus to Drax. Last accounts for Opus were to March 2016. I think the sale completed early 2017, so need to add a bit on -

Revenue at £573m Gross profit of £107m, which is a 19% gross margin

EBITDA of £34m (6% margin) Meter points 265,000 staff numbers 693

Sold for 10 times EBITDA for £340m.

Source - https://www.drax.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Proposed-acquisition-by-Drax-Group-plc-of-Opus-Energy-Group-Limited-and-Notice-of-General-Meeting.pdf

https://www.drax.com/investors/proposed-acquisition-opus-energy-group-limited/#:~:text=Drax%20Developments%20Limited%2C%20a%20member,cash%20on%20completion(3).

Makes interesting comparison to todays numbers. Only 90,000 meters. Also, look at average revenue per meter. Hopefully, Yu have the sense to avoid going down-market to the really small fry, it's too price competitive and not profitable for the supplier. Also, very high bad debts as the very small SMEs go bust, as not profitable themselves.

Also, note the gross margin of 19%. Yu, having got its margin up to 18%, shouldn't be throwing it away back to 14.5% (liberum) or 16% (SP Angel). They need sustainable and viable margins. Brokers are wildly different. What do we believe?

Blade

May I respectfully request you go forth.

All you post is personal insults and stupid comments.

Just noticed I posted incorrectly - £700m Rev someone posted up was FY25, my apologies. That said it’s below current consensus anyway at £746m. IMO forecasts for FY25 will more than likely change.

Nice for holders to see it recover at close today.

RSI isn’t oversold, gap filled at 1358 this morning, support at close from lower trend line on descending channel. No chartist mind so DYOR.

Surprised NG hasn’t commented since the TU.

Dodger - spot on with your earlier posting. Egg on face for some, say no more.

Rev Growth - Just another observation - In their finals the forecast for Rev growth was +50% this FY. H1 is +60% so unless I’m missing something that means H2 will be +40% now they’ve said they are in line (which IMO is questionable). FY23 H2 Growth was +77%, so FY24 H2 growth has nearly halved.

Shell - They are hedging / purchasing the energy requirements, so the business profitability is dependent on how well Shell perform and the relative margins. However, their covenants with Shell includes profitability, errr am I missing the obvious?, Bobby can’t be that stupid can he?, must be some performance targets in favour of YU to mitigate any breach, but we simply don’t know the details.

Still note someone posted £700m rev this year - consensus is £674m, they’ve said they are in line.

Will the BOD start to buy at this level?, expect at least six figs otherwise is an orchestrated PR job IMO.

PS kicking myself for not hanging on in with my short, oh well.

Well sausage wherever you are, it’s reached my price but still not tempted, not in these markets.

Shearclass the revenue recognised in H1 2024 as you say would have booked in 2022 and 2023 when commodity prices were sky high even double or treble current commodity prices when you look at the historic commodity price charts. So even though meter points are continuing their upward trajectory rapidly they haven’t as yet been able to to make up for the steep decline in commodity prices. That would seem like the logical explanation.

Shearclass - what is exactly meant be a fall in monthly bookings, monthly “bookings” of what exactly?

The warning signs was a month back when two directors sold a huge amount of shares @£17...The big sell off seems to reflect that profits increases, will be slower from now on..Not going to see £19 SP for quite a while.

Must say I’m very surprised the market didn’t seem aware that the revenue is related to the price of the very thing they are selling. Though would have expected a 5% drawdown given Yu’s history of beating expectations.

Having said that, if you are not a buyer at £14 then you should have been selling at £19! This is a great chance to buy more, and unless you need the money soon (should have sold at £19) then this volatility is a great thing.

Bobby Kalar better do something to steady the ship as he'll be feeling this drop more than anyone else, being the largest shareholder. At this rate we'll have lost all gains made since the turnaround

Not my research but respected poster

Yes, monthly bookings were lower in H1 2024 but the overall picture says #YU is continuing to deliver substantial growth that is now bedding in.

£46.7m is still £560m per annum + revenues picked up during the year + non-contracted revenues + meters.

As an example, FY23 delivered £29m in non-contracted revenues.

Now here is the average growth of revenues vs. contracted exit from the year before.

This year, it looks like it'll be around 25%-30% due to YU's rapid growth.

Now what happens if commodity prices pick up? Or we get another shock.

However, YU has the ability to push this much harder if they see fit which is demonstrated through the 35% increase in meters in H1 2024. A significant number that has so far been ignored.

But even at 20% we are talking c. £700m in revenues in FY25 on those 3 metrics alone.

What about their smart meter business or the upcoming progressive dividend? Or the £300m of contracted revenue that was already booked for FY25 and beyond.

5/

By YE24 YU could well be close to 100,000 meters with a +70% retention rate.

When gas prices pick up the renewals will transform YU's outlook. But by all means, let's judge the business solely on 6 months of monthly bookings performance driven by a dip in commodity prices.

Brutal

Funds Ready to TOP up but nightmare to time this share ?

Re rated SP or something more sinister!

I'm going with RE rated and buying on charts.

It’s funny now, no profits warning, excellent grow in turnover and customers PBT of 42m forecast and 100m in cash year end SP now heading to 200m so half the company in cash.

PE is now 6.9

Does that justify a 30% haircut ? Not on your nelly

SP in free fall....where will it end??

MagicFormula, I may be able to answer a couple of your questions. With regards to cash, if they make a net profit of £45m & ROC is £35m, then in months without the ROC payment, the cash flow is going up by around £7m per month. Very rough calculations but you can see how the cash balance increases at the year end, assuming no funnies.

Also, the ROC may be included in accounts payable, which is why it goes down when ROC paid. I may be wrong here but a possibility.

Hi everyone, got a couple of questions. Would be grateful if anyone knows and can explain to me.

1) After the £49m collateral moved from receivables to cash, Liberum have corresponding drop in payables - why? With this accounting, Liberum are saying Yu’s net assets actually went up by £49m, but surely there was no change? Obvs this makes a big difference to my valuation given it’s 1/5 the market cap.

2) How do Liberum get to £100m YE cash if Yu have to make the c.£30m RoC payment?

Then as an aside, worth noting that we are nearly trading at a 20% earnings yield (adjusted for net current assets). Even if there were no growth, this would be a fantastic investment. Just put 20% interest into a compound interest calculator to see for yourself!

*sp, not dp.

It seems like MMs are fishing for stops. They just took out all the ones at 1400p.

1400p is ridiculously cheap for the business, so expect a fairly big bounce.

The dp only dropped because of macro effects outside the company's control (global gas prices). But if/when gas prices rise then YU is in an even stronger position.

It's fallen around £5 from last week. Probably it's safe to buy for longer term now. Just my opinion.

Been here for a while but don’t post as I’m no expert at all. Appreciate the TU wasn’t as buoyant as traders would want - but when will this savage effect on price end. Ouch this one is burning longer than I thought it would!