Yu Energy Share Chat (YU.)

Anyone know how much Drax sold its SME business for to EDF

90,000 SMEs which turnover 572m in 2023

Drax paid 367m in 2017 for OPUS

From DRX interims:

“Opus Energy (Opus), the Group's SME business, was loss making at the Adjusted EBITDA level, reflecting an exit from gas supply as part of the Group's decarbonisation strategy and lower customer numbers.”

The deal won’t complete until Q3 2024 so guess no financial numbers will be available until then.

You’re welcome Sparky, no problem.

Guess the words “was loss making” will get your usual spin on other BB’s.

Thanks, Yes loss making so very interested what EDF paid.

Also before calling me names on the other board like you keep doing check the times of posts beforehand

Also while we are talking about stuff , your post where you claimed to have told me about annual usage in the Annual report.

Funny that because the opposite is true if you check back on ADVFN

Remember the agreement how you claimed YU are awful because they do not provide this data and I point you to the correct page in AR, I can bring up the chat if you like.

Also no spin at all just interested what EDF paid was it less than 367m in 2017 or more. Who knows

But does give some indications as to value ascribed to a loss making outfit.

Would take some time to find it in the hundreds of post you and I post but more than prepared to dig it for you.

So let’s agree to keep this board civil please as the conversations are far better here and actually you have been very civil here apart from claiming something you told me about when the truth is the opposite.

Which doesn’t bother me but annoys when you call be a constant loar and today disingenuous when in fact you should look at timings of posts please.

Sparky

Yes you are correct about the Opus info being posted, my apologies for that. As for the energy supplied volume you are not correct. I’ve always held the view that number of meters is irrelevant, so when I was trying to fund the usage data it was only in the last AR where it was mentioned, I posted that and mentioned there’s no way of determining the trend.

I’ve always been civil, think you need to re-read your postings both here and elsewhere.

We will never agree so will filter you here otherwise I will continue to challenge all the misinformation you tend to post up.

@sparky - drax was a long time ago so not sure its relevant - interesting but not really relevant to YUs position today.

@DD - we may see some volume data with the interims but without that we only have contract bookings, avg contract length and meter data. This does provide good visibility of future earnings. Based on H1 info - if they book the same in H2 (£46.8m with an avg 24 mth contract length - this comes from Liberums broker note who clearly got more info than us PIs) - YU would enter 2025 with circa £585-590m of contracted revenue for FY25 up from £520 for FY24. For me good growth on a decreasing energy price market. This is coming from Increased meters. What we will be interesting is historically H2 had higher bookings than H1 so will now wait for September interims for more data.

But as I have said before I am here for the long term and the future value of YU.

@SNN/NG - cash position - have been pondering this but think we need more info to understand it so will have to wait for the interims I think. Liberum dropped FY24 cash target by £12m (buyback, tax and meter capex).

Let's keep this board civil and try to avoid bringing up happenings in other places.

Ipc

So why don’t they provide energy supplied figures and forecast and align with KPI’s?. Personally using avg monthly booking data and new customer meters etc, isn’t sufficiently robust to determine 6 months hence what income will be. Then there’s their margins which is completely dependent upon Shells performance (not to mention commodity futures contracts, the weather, fixed contracts numbers and variable contract numbers, multiple metered customers, etc etc etc). Giving energy supplied, energy per customer, energy per meter, would just give a much clearer picture on what their income profiles were / are and folks could get a better feel for profitability - brokers are simply repeating what Rawson tells them (which doesn’t in itself give me much confidence). If the company have much more information then one could do your own forecasts without paid for broker bias (if this was covered by more analysts then I would check my forecasts against consensus but with just two its how good the CFO is (won’t go there against!).

DD

May I respectfully suggest you put in your C.V. and apply for the CFO's job, or even the CEO. That way you woud be able to have visibillity of all the commercially sensitive information you seek. You really are asking too much to be made public but you already know that.

If you are already employed (doubtful) and don't want to take over the reigns at YU, maybe just be upfront and ask for the Shell contract and the entire portfolio breakdown with consumption, rates, margins and payroll data plus the rates bill for the offices.

Good luck with that but if you are succesful can you share on here as I am sure others woudl find it useful.

Blade

May I respectfully request you go forth.

All you post is personal insults and stupid comments.

Figures from the sale of Opus to Drax. Last accounts for Opus were to March 2016. I think the sale completed early 2017, so need to add a bit on -

Revenue at £573m Gross profit of £107m, which is a 19% gross margin

EBITDA of £34m (6% margin) Meter points 265,000 staff numbers 693

Sold for 10 times EBITDA for £340m.

Source - https://www.drax.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Proposed-acquisition-by-Drax-Group-plc-of-Opus-Energy-Group-Limited-and-Notice-of-General-Meeting.pdf

https://www.drax.com/investors/proposed-acquisition-opus-energy-group-limited/#:~:text=Drax%20Developments%20Limited%2C%20a%20member,cash%20on%20completion(3).

Makes interesting comparison to todays numbers. Only 90,000 meters. Also, look at average revenue per meter. Hopefully, Yu have the sense to avoid going down-market to the really small fry, it's too price competitive and not profitable for the supplier. Also, very high bad debts as the very small SMEs go bust, as not profitable themselves.

Also, note the gross margin of 19%. Yu, having got its margin up to 18%, shouldn't be throwing it away back to 14.5% (liberum) or 16% (SP Angel). They need sustainable and viable margins. Brokers are wildly different. What do we believe?

Ipc - Yu had forward revenue at Dec 2023 of £306m for 2025 already (2yr + contracts signed in 2023). So you need to add that on to your figures! So, call it forward revenue of £900m at end of 2024. Which ties in with 100,000 meters target.

As I further think through the TU, the business model and medium term outlook for Yu is fully intact. The drop in monthly bookings is down to a drop off in pricing. They are set to almost double the meter count / double market share this year. Still looks like 2025 revenue will be over £1bn. Leverage will bring the net margin back up. This year is a year if investment to scale up. And if other competitors are as bad as Opus, even better for Yu.

@SNN, exactly.

Install meters, sign contracts, grab market share. This is a lean company, so can turn a profit when others can't.

YU don't control the commodity prices, but they are well in control of everything else. If gas commodity prices ever rise again, then YU will be sitting very pretty indeed.

Even under these conditions, it's producing a bucket load of cash.

You are correct, had missed those, so between £870-900m of control acted revenue for 2025.