Theracryf PLC Share Chat (TCF)

Sneaked a million in before the mm's noticed, others are noticing the news now

I disagree on the lifestyle bit - yes the shareprice performance has been dire, and yes, the BOD are paid well considering their performance, BUT a lifestyle company is defined by the motivations of the directors - it's one where the directors are there purely to enrich themselves and don't give a two hoots about developing the company towards shareholder value. RRR is probably the most obvious lifestyle company I am familiar with.

However one only has to watch the webinars here, particular the recent 'R&D day' one to realise the directors here are actually trying to progress the company, despite external appearances. So far they are failing quite miserably to do that, but they are trying. And one day could even succeed.

So yes while it shares some characteristics with a typical AIM lifestyle outfit, IMO it is not correct to call it one.

That was probably the most dramatic AIM pump of all time. And at least it was based on some degree of rationale at the time.

SNG was a pretty good example of right place right time hopium too. Look at it now.

In fact, this is one of the only ones of that sector that has never had a real AIM classic move. Which tells its own story, perhaps.

Meanwhile, radar pretty much sums it up for this name.

No new deals since the Stal deal (that now looks like not even being a deal). Similar to Juv. An absolute lifestyle outfit, of which evidence to the contrary is far outweighed by supporting evidence.

None of which means that we might not get a pump at some point, but that is blind gambling, not investing, and quite frankly, even longer odds for this name than similar micro-scruffs, if we are being honest about it. Hey ho.

You had a lot of opinions about this company 7 years ago...

I was in Argo when it went from 3p to £3 in 1 year, an extreme example but a fairly recent example of how dramatically things can turn around for a company.

I've been of the opinion that there is no point in having an opinion about this share because there is nothing to have an opinion about.

Well, unsurprisingly no RNS saying Stalicla have returned the rights to SXF-01, and STP-2 remains on the Stalicla website. Interesting theory DS, there may be some merit to it. I would imagine the $5m for IND approval is the sticking point as it is a fair chunk of capital, particularly in the current environment that is unfavourable for biotech's raising funds.

Stalicla would probably prefer to use the more limited amount of capital to advance their in-house and more developed programmes. Additionally Phenotype 1 is expected to include a larger percentage of the ASD population (20% v 15% for Phenotype 2), so from a business perspective it is logical for Stalicla to name this as their core ASD programme.

Receiving the full $5.5m would be ideal, but Theracryf don't really need the capital at this moment. If the deal terms are adjusted, I would still like to see the full payment from the Phase 1 trial, which I would estimate would provided cash into FY27 (just) with the reduced cash burn post tablet reformulation. I would also like to see the total deal value increase to account for the increased risk.

Stalicla have published their Phase 1b data for STP-1, in my opinion this is worth a read. I would imagine they are waiting for a similar publication from Theracryf before they pay the $500k due for completing the Phase 1 trials.

CJ - I had expected that we would have receive some payments from Stalicla though, as the dispute could not have been reasonably predicted. I didn't outright object to the possibility that a raise was coming though, and set out a few scenarios in which it may (I.e. Stalicla deal taking longer than anticipated). I mainly objected to the nonsense and scaremongering on $10m being raised by the issuance of 600m new shares. I said the BOD had the authority to issue up to circa 90m shares. Between the raise and director buys and subscription, 90.2m share were issued.

As Lynn Durham said “There is no ‘autism’ but ‘autisms’.” STP-2 is still the lead candidate to treat Phenotype 2 ASD, a billion dollar market, and Phase 1 trials appeared to have reach the desired outcome, therefore I still do not see Stalicla abandoning it. It is looking likely though, that Phase 2 for STP-2 will be delayed beyond this year, which is both frustrating and disappointing but delays are a part of biotech and the pharma industry and is something investors in the bio space should be aware of up front. Drug development is a long game.

I'm sure we'll find out what is happening with the Stalicla deal in due course, but I would be very surprised if Stalicla have relinquished the rights to SFX-01. If there was an issue with the science, or Stalicla were clear they no longer wanted STP-2, the deal would have already been terminated.

If it was over Stalicla presumably would have removed any reference to SFX-01 ...

https://stalicla.com/pipeline

I've been of the opinion that the initial deal would be renegotiated with smaller stage payments.

I'm still of that opinion.

We seem to think polar opposites of each other proinvestor. Yesterday you said my train of thought is highly nonsensical but I think the same of your beliefs and positivity in this share.

The fact is Stalicla have not made any further milestone payments since the initial $500k. TCF initially expected $5.5m last year and then changed that guidance to expected this year. TCF issued a dispute notice over 20 weeks ago to the non payment of $500k when they completed phase 1b but we’ve had no resolution or even updates. TCF have removed their guidance that they expect up to $5.5m in milestone payments from Stalicla completely. Stalicla removed on their website that phase 2 will go live in 2024 and now they have removed STP2 (SFX-01) from their arrow chart. And yet you think my thoughts are nonsensical?

You have always been incredibly positive about this share and highly critical of anyone who had concerns on this share. It still feels like you believe you’ve made a really good investment decision buying in here despite sitting on a significant paper loss.

For what it’s worth I think you’ve been unlucky. I bought in here twice believing the Stalicla deal will come good but the penny has to drop at some point that things have gone horribly wrong.

You said I was talking nonsense last year when I said there would be a share placing in the Spring. There was a share placing in the Spring. Now you say I’m talking nonsense for saying that with no sources of income at present we’ll see another share placing early in 2025. You will say that’s nonsense too but time will tell.

Of course, if a RNS comes out and TCF announce Stalicla have paid $500k and this will go into phase 2 imminently and another $5m payment will be received then this will rise sharply but on all the evidence it looks highly unlikely such an RNS is going to come.

They seem to be showing their most advanced programmes on the pipeline graphic and have changed the title of each to include "core" infront of the specific indication class I.e STP-1 for Neurodevelopmental disorders and STP-7 for Substance abuse disorders (Cocaine and alcohol). Note that they have removed STP-7 for NS indication as well (This was a Phase 1 drug candidate), which I would pressume they are still developing, albeit not their "core" indication.

The fact that STP-2 is still mentioned on their website, both on the pipeline further down and on the technology page would suggest they have not axed SFX-01. If they had, I would have thought they would have updated these areas as well. STP-1 is, after all, Stalilca's lead programme and their lead candidate for ASD.

Just had a look at the Stalicla website. On their pipeline it used to show STP2 (SFX-01) with an arrow showing stage 1 completed. Tonight they have removed STP2 on this arrow chart, now only showing STP1 and STP7.

STP2 does still have a sentence further below which remains as it was.

What do people make of this removal of STP2 from the arrow chart? Is this a sign that it’s over?

CJ,

While I agree it is highly frustrating that no resolution to the Stalicla deal has been achieved thus far, I fail to understand how you can be so confident the deal is going to collapse/has already done so. This train of thought is highly nonsensical when all the evidence is considered.

1. STP-2 is vital for Stalicla's programme to treat autism spectrum disorder, Phase 1 seems to have produce extremely promising data. Biotech is notoriously slow moving, Stalicla thought their own candidate, STP-1, would be entering Phase 2 last year, just like with SFX-01, however, booth were delayed to this year.

2.The latest news from Stalicla, dated 8th May says the following "STP1 and STP2, both planned to enter Phase 2 trials in 2024.". Why, as recently as May, would Stalicla make such statements on their own website if they knew they would not be progressing STP-2? They simply wouldn't.

3. The deal has not formally ended, and no communication to date has suggested it will so why would Stalicla waste their time/the time of Theracryf if they are certain to end the deal anyway? They would have ended the deal as soon as practicably possible if their intention was to exit from the deal.

4. You seemly fail to understand how the biotech industry functions, particularity small pharma. No, at present, Stalicla do not have the funds to pay Theracryf $160m, however, this is disingenuous to suggest that they need to. The deal terms are payments as and when STP-2 reaches certain milestones, as is the norm in the pharma industry.

5. ASD is not the only target indication for SFX-01, nor is it the largest target. Yes, it is currently the only indication that has a licencing deal with it. Theracryf are also targeting non-dilutive funding from grands to fund the pipeline, as we have seen in SFX-012 indications for Glioblastoma and rhabdomyosarcoma. I really like this approach, it means that we hold on to a larger share of the SFX-01 and can licence when these indications are at a later stage, leading to better deal terms. So no, SFX-01 is not "done", far from it.

6. The acquisition of Chronos has expanded the portfolio and I'm intrigued to find out where Theracryf can take Ox1. Time will tell if this was a shrewd move.

7. To your point on funding. It is a responsibility of the board of directors to provide an accurate representation on company finances and their expectations on going concerns when writing the end of year report. They MUST highlight if they, to the best of their knowledge, believe the company will be able to continue as a going concern (enough funding for the proceeding 12 months). The Bod themselves have stated that they believe Theracryf have the funds through to Q4 FY 25 (I.e into 2026). Cash burn has reduced due to the completion of reformulation of SFX-01 tablets.

Could Stalicla pull the plug on SFX-01? Sure, this is a possibly, however, it is not probable based on the evidence. But even without Stalicla, Theracry

A bit dramatic ;-)

TCF hasn't shelved SFX-01

Who would have thought 20 weeks after EVG/TCF issued the dispute notice to Stalicla that we would have no news, no resolution and no progress on the situation. The only thing we have had is one line in the annual results that they continue to have constructive talks with Stalicla.

I think it’s pretty safe to say now that the Stalicla deal is going to collapse, there is no way Stalicla are committed to this deal and will make any further payments to TCF. It does not appear that Stalicla have the financial resources to pay TCF anything close to $160m in milestone payments. They seemed to have a big struggle raising just $17m earlier in the year to help fund their work.

Both TCF and Stalicla have removed all narrative that this will go live in 2024 and TCF have removed guidance that up to $5.5m will be received this year.

Anyone invested here hoping that the Stalicla money will bankroll the company, it’s clearly not going to happen. This share is done. Sadly it seems SFX-01 is done. There is no news any more about SFX-01. No pharmas have shown any interest in trialing it and TCF cannot afford to do any trials on it themselves. After all these years TCF has shelved SFX-01 and now concentrating on their new company. There are no sources of income. This is clearly a lifestyle business, it’s never going to achieve anything, it is just providing a salary to a handful of staff but will ultimately collapse.

And finally I read some posters saying this is funded into 2026, I don’t see how. In the final results it said TCF have £2m in the bank at end of March plus they raised £1m in the share placing. It seems to me that they will effectively have had £3m in reserves at end of March. They’ll be lucky to last 12 months on that. Any further share placings will make this impossible for shareholders to ever get any money back but where else will they get funding from?

Drectors here seem very reluctant to hold shares in the company

A purchase of some stock would give us some optimism

It’s 10 years of indifference

Maybe they’ve got lots of options or grants awaiting if things happen?

Same ould story

I was thoroughly impressed with the presentation. Share price movement the past two weeks has been going in the right direction too which is a nice surprise.

Brief mention of ASD and Stalicla, so I am hoping for a news on that front soon. When that news drops, we should see a big re-rate.

Investor Meet Company

8 Views - 3 Hours ago

https://youtu.be/a3bYtaY2URw?si=bQnjknYOVTwr9HN3

Could it have been a sell and a buy (yesterday) into an ISA ?

That 4.7 mil at 0.93p was actually a sale, how on earth did they get such a high price for them, maybe there is a buyer in the opposite direction for similar size

I added a few, that was a Very smart presentation, Just need more eyeballs on it and maybe some of those already larger holders adding or getting back in

Just added 250k more at 1p, think it has legs for 1.3-1.5p with momentum after the presentations.

Presentation so much to be proud of from little Theraclyft

Agree DSFLAT. Open and detailed. Many/most other AIM companies could learn from this style of presentation

Erasmus presentation is Very good

Not my sales, we are getting closer to Stalicla news