Pets at home Share Chat (PETS)

My #PETS call is a winner and continues to move up https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1831649848283504743

Hey guys I just dropped a podcast and included #PETS , please like and share https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1826573413546180946 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NF_SClCBkXM

Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/1-cheap-4-6-yielding-ftse-250-stock-i-d-buy-for-my-isa-in-september/ar-AA1pVG0t

Swazers, Recent results by Zoetis in the US had the share price up 5.1% in a day. Unfortunately for the Pet Industry Zoetis is 23% below the Pandemic high. However, Pets.L is 41% BELOW THE PANDEMIC HIGH. Hopefully when intrest rates com,e down further and the economy picks up... Zoetis make an offer...

Dyor

Please see the link to our #TriFusionAI and #swazcharts generated report for #PETS which includes technicals, fundamentals and financials https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1822923299006894563 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y081obMa8e44atc-34NKrehkSh_upWyv/view?usp=sharing

My unique A.I. robot #TriFusionAI told me to draw a chart for #PETS so I did and here it is with my X tweet. I think the T.A. is bullish https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1822568118276788433 Charts here. According to my own ideas, this firm is in a 10-year-old super macro trend and finding support, the top of the super trend is over 655 per share, assuming the SP has indeed found support from back in March of this year. https://www.tradingview.com/x/DM5fHhhy/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/MykClxZp/

Bought my first tranche here today at 297p - down over 7pct in the last week, looks overdone to me - plenty of money out there atm and personally I don't buy into the view that people are cutting back - I go to Pets at Home on a regular basis and there is no sign of a slow down - the vets and grooming business has plenty of scope imo - lets see

gla dyor etc

?

PETS

An impressive performance by Lyssa McGowan at the investors presentation following the results. No need to repeat the results here except to say that eps were down (pet accessories had a difficult year). The tone, however, was distinctly upbeat. They are happy with current analyst consensus for underlying PBT, currently c£144m (compared with £132m this year and also ahead of last year). The Joint Venture veterinary practices are proving particularly successful and they believe their vets growth strategy is not threatened by the CMA's review into the vet sector. There is, they acknowledge, the possibility that Government might regard the regulatory framework of the veterinary business outdated and no longer be fit for purpose, a change in the framework may well affect them.

The divided was held (it is actually outside their guided percentage of profits) but they will be returning £25m to shareholders by way of a buy-back. They believe that they have designed and integrated business (much of it digital) that can deliver long term profitable growth, my impressions was that most of the analysts agreed. If the profit expectations are met this year and there is even a partial recovery in pet accessories then the shares are likely to march on.

Should see better share price with results, dividends and more buy-backs.

Thank you that I had Nvidia for the last year so I have a better pension....but not here!!

UK shares need to show us how we have a good share system or all my money will be in the US,,,,

Well done BHP, Hotel Chocolat, Darktrace and many others to be bought out, merger or move out to reflect value!

Feel sorry for the car mechanic who puts his money in UK based pension and at the end of his/her career said "How much?" ... it is less than I put in!!!

Next weds and divi week after

When are the next results and Ex Div Declaration please

Buyers coming on now

300p on 21st May down to 266p on 23rd May is not normal, the news on CMA was leaked yesterday in my humble opinion. On the positive side PET'S have previously made it clear they do not act in an uncompetitive manner, so nothing to fear really. Increasing costs in vets bills in no different to high inflation pressure across all sectors of business. JMO ADYOR!

Disagree... just look at the chart for the past three years ahead of every earning call, it has always sold off leading up to earnings and this time is no different. It has always bounced post earnings as shorts adjust. Plain to see if you look

It appears that the story was leaked to insiders few days ago hence the rapid fall prior to today's official release. It was always risky holding with the CMA investigation pending a decision. Glad I swerved it as PET'S was looking good around the 290p mark with the increasing dividend...Can see this going sideways or drifting until the final reports are published end of next year it seems. JMO Adyor

Just doubled my holdings

Ultimately nothing new has developed with this release? Just Reiterating?

It's the uncertainty (prolonged) that gets me.

It seems as if they are an easier target than others.

I just read the company RNS from march in response to the CMA consultation and I am reassured enough to stick with it; adding along the way,

Next thing they'll want to nationalise the pet industry. These people need to justify their jobs

No its a press release from today on the CMA site but just confirms that it is going to a formal review...

It's a formal investigation now over 18 months.

What a joke this market has become, 6% on 100k sells before the UT.

How is that even possible

The sell off starts into results next week... And one look at the chart tells you what usually happens after, I'll be buying the dip for sure as the business is fundamentally solid.

Bob, it has appeared as the same pattern 10-2 days before earnings calls for the past couple of years if you look at a daily chart. Sometimes very heavy selling which I suspect may have something to do with short sellers and people hedging. That said it also presents as a real opportunity if you have faith in the company...At these levels I am waiting to start to add more and more should the price fall to circa 270 and yes I'll be sitting on a paper loss for a while. DYOR

Morning all, just wondered if anyone had any insight as to the retrace other than just general trading? Thank you as always

Can someone explain why there are so many nominal cells. I don't understand how every day that can be so many small buys and sells. Thank you

Well the SP broke the downtrend last week and going well so far this week. defo change in sentiment and looking good.

So it seems today is the day the "consultation" period closes. I mistakenly thought there were meant to be some results / conclusions today. Oh, so wrong again. No telling when those results will come out, I presume. Probably not for weeks, maybe months.

Unfortunately the investigation is a cloud of uncertainty hanging over this sector until the investigation publishes its results. Imho.

Thanks for posting the Proactive Investors report, DJ.

Sounds sound. Fingers crossed.

Proactive Investors - A competition probe into Britain’s veterinary market is unlikely to hit CVS Group (LON:CVSG) and Pets at Home Group PLC (LON:PETSP) as hard as feared, analysts have reassured.

The Competition and Markets Authority would likely look to enforce more transparency, rather than taking drastic measures such as forcing disposals and capping product prices, Liberum analysts said in a note.

“​​The main remedies are likely to be around information disclosure and there is nothing to stop the industry adopting those changes ahead of time,” the bank reassured, having interviewed the regulator’s ex-legal head, Tom Smith.

“The read across for CVS is perhaps less significant than one might have thought and contrary to some commentators, we don’t think that CVS is dead money.

“For Pets at Home, the impact is likely to be negligible with its differentiated model insulating it to a large degree.”

Britain’s CMA launched an investigation into the pet medicines and treatment market last month, warning owners were often uninformed on pricing and could be overpaying as a result.

AIM-listed vet service provider CVS Group took a hit on the news, having responded saying it had already proposed a “package of possible remedies” to the CMA.

Pets at Home assured the investigation was unlikely to find it at fault meanwhile, since the retailer’s sites run as joint ventures and are independently responsible for pricing.

Liberum, quoting Smith, argued that competition concerns were likely more a result of consumers not shopping around, given the often stressful nature of seeking pet care.

“If your dog is sick, you just want to get it sorted out,” as per Smith, “you don't want to go and shop around at four different vets to get different prices”.

Remedies are likely to tackle the lack of information on rival services and products, therefore, as per Liberum.

CVS climbed 2.4% to 967p on the news, while Pets at Home gained 1.1% to reach 268.59p.

Looks like the CMA Investigation review finishes on the 11th April. I assume this will hold the price down until results are published, it seems nervous times for holders of Vet related businesses, I wonder if it will revisit the recent lows of 250p? Might be an opportunity to get in it dips below 250p on any negative outcomes one assumes? JMO ADYOR!

Good point Dulwichman. CVS are struggling because they can only recruit Vets. by paying very high salaries. Maybe because some "self employed" vets can charge excessive amounts to pet owners !

Well something is wrong within the Vet industry. Here in my neck of the woods vets charge between £250 to £550 for the same procedure (Spading of a medium size dog) the other issue is the price of drugs ie the % mark up by vets vary a lot. As to if vets are making excessive profits I think that is full of too many variables rents etc. I think this is a bit of a market over reaction but what do I know

CVS not doing very well yet their shares crashed. CMA clowns will waste everyones time . Pathetic but what we can expect from our shoddy government. If Pets really are ripping of their customers this would be a good buying chance. They are not but just being hastled by inept political intervention. Medium term it will damage the sp.

Bottom at 250p , me thinks 🤔

Seems like a good timing...I just rushed it a bit , though 272 was the bottom..but definetelly over beaten..Hopeful for a recovery by mid/end April..final YE results will be by end of May..

Topped up on these this morning. Still looks overdone to me. Those dogs everyone bought over lockdown aren't going to die overnight!

Like most things, the things that aren’t stated are more important than those that are - and I’m certainly not savvy enough at reading accounts to read between the lines so I leave that to others. I’m assuming however that the accounts reporting for the veterinary side of things cannot be used to identify profit attributable to prescriptions - so was just wondering if anyone had some general market knowledge on that.

HD

Dont be lazy look in the H1 reports or Annual Reports

Anyone know what proportion of PETS turnover and profit comes from the veterinary side of things?

Of that, any ideas how much profit comes from prescriptions?

Looks well over done to me here. Plenty of viable reasons for mark-ups on prescription charges against on line retailers.

Ge0rge123

H1 - RNS November 28th 2023 ... Q3 in Jan 2024

H1 very detailed on margins, costs,expenditure etc .... quarterly mostly just revenue

H1 reveals all the important issues which the market is following up on .... Q3 mostly lots of comment on revenue ..the important line is the statement on FY24 Profit before Tax excl exceptionals ... and it is important to know all the reasons behind the PBT ..because that is what the market is watching ...

2022/3 - Underlying PBT - £136.4m

2023/4 - Underlying PBT - c.£132m (guidance)

last year Full Dividend 8.3p.. so... need to see from the Underlying PBT will actually bring earnings of that on the bottom line after exceptionals, and tax

I think they are working through the headwinds ..not being negative on that ..but the market is working on what they see as the bottom line earnings

But this is why yesterday happened! What is to come? Hmmm?

Today 09:21

UK's CMA steps up probe into UK veterinary sector

(Alliance News) - The UK's competition watchdog on Tuesday launched a formal investigation into the veterinary sector warning pet owners may be overpaying for medicines and prescriptions.

A reminder: The latest H1 I can find:

Pets at Home announced its FY24 Interim Results for the 28-week period to 12 October 2023.

H1 was the period of highest execution risk in building our Petcare Platform as we relaunched our brand, transitioned our stores to the new Stafford Distribution Centre (DC) and continued to build a new digital platform.

H1 consumer revenue# grew 8.6%, ahead of our 7% ambition, to £1.0bn, with all channels in growth and further progress in retaining and acquiring new customers. Underlying consumer demand was resilient with structural trends underpinning sustained market growth.

Hi Poker

Hope your good

Where are you viewing those H1 Results as I can only see Q4 on 30th Jan 2024 where everything is UP?

Cheers George

Look at H1 Results ...says it all

operating cash income down, margins down, cash levels considerably down, earnings down ...

..various reasons for this though ...H1 tells you that though

Buyback tranche must be about done now, 8m shares since end of Nov with pps range 270-320p broadly so assuming a 300p avg maybe £1m ish left to go.

As they are confident on flat PBT and with the weak FCF in H1 it would suggest H2 would have decent cash generation, whilst dividend will eat a chunk, I hope they keep any dividend increase modest in favour of further buybacks at this level.

Mr Picky,

My current share price estimate is 360p in the next 12 months vs your 350p forecast.

Having bought PETS during Covid - I will make sure I get a return on my capital... before moving away from UK shares... and let Jeremy Hunt watch his money go down!!

Currently, the CMA investigation is holding PETS down as well as the shorters.

The CMA said they will provide an update about the next steps in early 2024?!?

In the meantime, let's see PETS grow the eps further - and as the Management know the sp is undervalued .... they keep up the Buy Backs..

PETS had a quick +10% rally earlier. I think it is just just a little consolidation. I have put on a limit order at 265p today to buy back the 1/3 I sold earlier. I may not get them because of their 'buy-back' programme but happy to hold the other 2/3 and sell in the mid £3.50's.

Any reason for the gentle decline. Just general trading?

Reiterating a Bloomberg view of the Pet market growth expected over next few years.

The pet industry is poised to swell from $320 billion today to almost $500 billion by 2030, growth is driven by an increase in spending on pet-related healthcare — including veterinary care, diagnostics, and pharmaceuticals — that has created longer pet lifespans that require more expensive elderly care.

Alongside this longer pet lifespan comes a larger investment in increasingly complex drugs like monoclonal antibodies, which could make the pet pharmaceutical market top $25 billion by 2030. The analysis predicts that increased animal longevity and healthcare improvements might accelerate the use of preventive-care diagnostics as well, with the potential to become a $30 billion global market. Europe represents that largest growth opportunity with a total addressable market around $12 billion with just 8% penetration.

“We’re seeing a profound increase in consumer spending on pets and expect to see this continue through 2030. Consumers are willing to pay more for items for their pets, with the pet food market having the potential to grow more than 50% from current levels by the end of the decade.”

Buybacks can't even prop this up now.

Seems sentiment on this has changed.

Sold a third of my holding at 292.25p this morning. It has had a 10% rally this month (albeit from a sharp dip). Simple jobbing strategy here. Happy to let this go in chunks of 1/3 on rising prises or buy back that 1/3rd if the price falls back again.

Decided to sell out here for a 5pct profit, not too shabby - no more company news here until 29th May which is a long time to wait and I think PETS may get caught up in the UK Macro with negative sentiment re interest rates - still think it will do well and if it does dip below what I paid for them I will reload - gla dyor etc

Fecked by the fecking yanks AGAIN.

I like you style - this is a good business - top of its game but getting involved in hiring to many people with fancy job titles - look at the new CEO’s history. The previous CEO HAD IT RIGHT.

This new CEO is not here for long. The new distribution centre! Massive investment but what happens if there’s a major incident - fire/flood/strike - no back up site. Northampton was a waste of space - wrong location, should have been Newbury M4 corridor. But hey what do I know only was in logistics for 50years plus.

There is one, they post everyday at 7am, with details on the buyback from the previous working day. So this morning posted Thursdays. A broad estimate I expect we have another couple of weeks at this increased pace. As with an avg price of say £3 a share we would get down to around 468m shares, right now we are still over 470m buying back about 100-150k a day.

No RNS on but back today. Does that mean this round has finished?

Another one for me to stress about Mary!!

However I've added twice today.

Same here taken maiden position here along with another top up at BT, missed out couple of years ago here , alot of other shares hitting year low ...atb

1st tranche taken here - despite headwinds, seems a good entry for a quality company despite a few headwinds - will add again as it drops, if indeed it does.

GLA

I think it is sentiment driven JG - BOE holding rates - seen as not good for retail - just a matter of time though before rates come down along with inflation - wage rises have already gone through the pipe so surplus income which is good for retail is on its way - MKS been hammered down on the same basis even though they had stellar results -the UK macro is changing and the tide will turn positive for retail imo - patience needed

gl dyor etc

Carrington

The only thing that doesn't sit right with me is the lack of BOD buys.

CFO has only exercised options and then sold in the last 2 years, and the CEO has made 1 sole purchase nearly 2 years ago.

It's times like these when a market can whack 6% off for a broker note whereby the target price is still well north of this.

Ludicrous and just typical of the UK stock market.

Actually the share price went up yesterday marginally.

Why didn't it fall 4% yesterday if it was the update which was not too bad considering all external factors ?

"What is going on here?" I thought it was obvious.

They released a recent trading update which disappointed the market. Therefore the share price has gone down.

What is going on here?