Ibstock Share Chat (IBST)

With brick manufacturer's/construction shares, we seem in a worse position now than we were in the recession. What's happening?

LWHL, you're bang on with what you say. Couldn't agree with you more. Good to communicate with you mate . All the best.

Have to agree with you again. You could argue that this has been the case since the first round of QE back around the GFC.

The markets should have been left alone IMO, but we are where we are.

And now, like the proverbial druggie, we are hooked on cheap credit/stimulus and state intervention, and suffering increasing levels of withdrawal.

I simply cannot see how all the expanding global debt (and the increasing cost of simply servicing it) cannot lead to a messy end. But when is the quadrillion question we would all like to know of course!

Anyway, enough of a de-rail from me now I think, although pleasant to communicate with you Gingy. GLA.

LWHL, you just can't call it. I do feel at the moment it's not so much investing as gambling.

Oh, 100% agree with you mate, but time will tell.

Markets just feel like they are in a calm before a storm at the time of print IMO.

Watching the VIX with some interest, to see if it will revisit the recent high in the coming weeks (then will it break higher, or form a double top?) - or a panic over scenario, when it drops below 20 again.

Always a bit of a challenge to try and push back against one's own natural bias on this stuff, I find.

Just getting a feeling this is going to pull back ?

This has held up well and suprised me. A good defensive stock at the moment.

"Uncle_Doug

Posts: 2,924

Price: 192.00

No Opinion

RE: Price rise12 Jul 2024 17:58

Some decent buys late on today. SP approaching 200. Come on!"

Well that went well. Inverse market correlation in action once more.

Such a disconnection from the house market to brick market don't make sense to me?

Some decent buys late on today. SP approaching 200. Come on!

I think it will see a big change in the share price next month when interest rate drop.

This is just the sector rallying on optimism. Everything to do with building is going up, which is a pleasant change.

Yup ... i missed being in this one. If it gets into the high 150's I'm back.

Keeping my powder dry for Wednesday. Got a feeling this will drop, so a good time to top up.

Investors holding back, poised for the pulldown in line with Forterra. I will be adding more.

Does anyone else have that feeling that this is going to pull back in line with Forterra, come interim results?

Half year results published in a week, market conditions unlikely to have changed from trading update. Hopefully they have managed lower demand with cost savings/ reductions in output costs etc. Here's to hoping the dividend doesn't get slashed! Share price has held up nicely since recent rise, also coin toss chance of interest rates being dropped tomorrow. Still long term hold here, will add when funds available GLA

Blackrock now hold a little over 10% in terms of voting rights, having added another 2.5%. Holding is a mixture of shares (7.3%) and some other instrument.

I don’t see (but I may have missed something…) any particular reason that this increase would be driven by index-related changes or inflows. Therefore it is possible that this is true discretionary buying by a Blackrock actively managed fund (or funds). We may get a little more info when fund annual/interim reports are released.

Interesting development if it is buying by an active fund…

Clogs you may be right have you heard anything?

Or is it the other way round ?

Has anyone heard tales of Forterra sniffing around Ibstock, or is it just a rumour?

Took some off table @170 but will buy them back if SP dips again.

I've been hearing the same, and there's talk of someone sniffing around Ibstock. I don't know how true it is.

A lot of takeover talk in the wider market recently. Could Ibstock be on someone's shopping list? Big end of day jump here

Hi Uncle-Doug, l do think we are well under valued. We should be at least £1.70.

With election in 6 weeks and Labour ahead in polls, will their bold promises to boost new homes and create more new towns signal a boost for IBST? Positive sign that Black Rock increased their holding recently. Although the divvies are very nice it would be nicer still to see the SP recovering back to higher levels.

Yes interest rates need to drop but Ibstock are not competitive in the market place at this time. Other manufacturers, in particular Irish manufacturers are exporting significant quantities of product into the UK and still offer competitive pricing compared to UK producers. This is particularly apparent with concrete brick, which is taking market share from clay brick producers like Ibstock.

We desperately need interest rates to drop for a lot of companies to survive. It's killing a lot of business, this included.

The remarks on positive lead indicators probably made the market take the update well. If HY falls short then it could struggle still. Obviously this sector will recover and do well, it just could still get worse before it gets better.

Agree with you Sid. Update is as expected. Dividend payments (due in a few weeks) keeping me holding this . We await the building industry picking up ! Re IPO 's most of these are down, I don't bother with IPO's these days.

Poor performance in share price since IPO yes but still paid out 35% of IPO price in dividends since that's without any compounding/reinvesting. Market conditions are pretty poor, interest rates highest they've been in 15 years. Many small construction companies are ceasing trading all impacts. They seem to be managing current risks, Still great believer this will come good 3-5 years.

Not really much of a surprise IMO. I remain bullish on this name and its ability to weather the storm, but I have been surprised at how well the SP has held up since the last update.

Far too frothy at this level, in the circumstances, IMO.

Hence my being out for a little while now.

Watching to see if I get a chance to return, but am not going to jump in at any price. If it remains too expensive (to my mind) then I will remain on the sidelines. GLA.

Doesn't look good for tomorrow's update.

Hi Sidney41 let's hope so. It seems we've been stuck in this trading range for weeks now. Maybe we'll get some positive news. Good luck .

Trading update on Thursday will hopefully show some positive Indicators Looking to add but holding off until then.

Would have hoped to see some positive movement in the share price with all the talk about house prices on the move, and new developments popping up. Also maybe interest rates dropping. What's the reason......does anyone know?

Hi Sneedway, that news sounds encouraging, thank you for posting that. It's good to see some green shoots. I keep adding a few when funds become available. It's wrong not to at these prices. Thank you, have a good weekend.

Https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/12901bc3ebe74e888a7e6fa91e15ad9c

PMI at 50.2 meaning a very humble expansion. Encouragingly the trend of housebuilding activity is trending to a rise above 50 as well. Early days for sector recovery still.

All the right sounds. Inflation down, next thing is interest rates dropping. Hopefully we will then see a boom in the housing market. Ibstock at this price is a steal. Loading up for a push north. Chart's look strong, don't miss out.

Still only a third of their shorts this time last year. Probably no big deal, just a shifting of some resources.

Hi NalaKapala1. Not a good sign mw have increased their shorts. They probably have a better understanding of where this is going than us mere mortals.

Just noticed MW have increased their short since results.

I reckon the route is pretty clear. We are at the moment no worse off really than we have been for the rest of this year and the second half of last year. (sp wise). Anybody who was expecting anything much above the update that we got was touting at windmills. We all know what a mess the country is in let alone the housing market and nowt much is going to change until interest rates fall and the housing market picks up which is unlikely to be this year. I listened to the pod cast the other day (for which I always wear my bulls*it filters and deflectors) and to be honest there were a lot of positives to look forward to. I honestly think they are pro active and in a great position to take advantage of the upturn - its just how long that will be and whether my money could be better used elsewhere in the meantime. I did sell quite a lot on the confirmation (rather than news) of the fall in dividend as I think this will deter investors as at the moment dividend hunters seem to be the vogue. and Im in that group. Im not sure that it was the right thing as like you Gingy Im not sure how much the fall back will be and perhaps more importantly whether the sp will start to tick up on anticipation. Once cut though the divi is most unlikely to be restored for some years and thats the big negative for me. I could repurchase and have my previous holding at quite some discount which also appeals.

Thats my musings anyway. Always appreciate those of others - its what the boards are for I guess

Sometimes a little bit of issuance - for employee share plans, or old warrants, whatever - changes the denominator and anyone sitting spot on a notification threshold ends up having to issue a TR1 even though their holding hasn’t changed.

I have seen them do this with a few other shares - up and down by similar, small percentage amounts that require TR-1 notifications.

The very first time I noticed it, I thought they were starting to build a proper position in that stock. Then I was puzzled when, a short time later, it reversed back again in another TR-1. So I would pay no heed to it, but watch and see if they do similarly here in the weeks ahead. GLA.

Interesting development.

Looks like Blackrock have deliberately targeted the 5% level which creates a disclosure obligation for them, hence this RNS. They could easily have stopped at 4.99% and stayed under the radar. That they didn’t suggests they are looking to make the wind blow, as someone once put it (in a film)…

Is it just me or does anyone else find these like platting fog?

Large amount of the upward momentum in IBST pins on interest rates reducing, current high rates coupled with high house prices makes it very difficult for first time buyers to get on the ladder. Although it seems everywhere I look they're still building new developments.

Not looking like there's much appetite for building material stock at the moment, until we see the green shoots with the economy. Can't see that happening this year

Earnings in line with guidance. It's a good enough FY.

But activity continued to be subdued and no pick up in Q4 in activity. House prices have started doing well again but it's all just because of massive migration numbers/lack of supply. They need to signal an activity pick up to really drive upwards. Conversely, there is a chance to head back downwards if things get worse in 2024/inflation stalls or elevates again.

It held up better than I expected it to, although equally, this one often needs a few days to tell you what the market thinks.

Somewhat disappointing not to see some inside buying today; perhaps tomorrow.

Even then, I would be unlikely to change my target return price, but if the BOD are not buying at these prices, why should anyone else, is what I tend to think in these circumstances.

To be clear, I remain a fan of this outfit. I do not see anything that is cause for extreme concern in this update, but equally, I do see further pain ahead, hence my position at the time of print.

GLA. Firmly on my watch list, but no more, for now.

Very disappointed with trading update. Can't see us at this price for long. Looking to add on the drop back down. Ok for a long holding when things turn around, hopefully in the next year or so.

Sure, but ex div is not until 9th May. That is practically a lifetime away, in stock market terms.

Short term, you want to see how it reacts to a test of the 200 DMA. If you do not get a little bounce which holds there, then it could move quite quickly to the mid 130's IMO. Will take a view for a possible technical trade if we get there.

What the institutions do is all that matters here though really. And this is of no relevance to LTH strategy either. GLA.

Expecting a drop when we go ex dividend. I think people will be putting their money elsewhere for more return and less of a risk, until things pick up.

My opinion of the company remains unchanged, but I would want to see the SP back to the 130's to be laddering back in right now, personally.

They were within guidance, but I can see the subdued activity continuing throughout 2024, not just the early part. If this comes to pass, then that would IMO be a better price point.

Anyway, this one does not always react as you would expect it to. Not long to see what the market makes of it. GLA.

So….. Holders will receive a final dividend, albeit one reduced by 20% in line with the company calls “adjusted earnings”. Looks like a reasonable outcome to me, with the worst fears of some commentators not being realised.

Looking at the language used in the trading update, and the decision last summer to marginally increase the interim, I think that management fully understand the importance of the dividend. I don’t see anything to suggest that they have pet capital projects to pursue at its expense for example.

The starting point in terms of dividend cover is quite strong, as is cash availability.

So whilst some of the ratios (particularly dividend cover and FCF/dividend) will take a hit, I think they’ll hold their nerve through 2024 at least.

Hi rhinocol. Seeing more positivity in new development this year already. After all, we will always need building products. Let's hope the dividend continues.

Hopefully they'll keep paying a dividend. This will help untill the industry starts picking up again

Thanks mate. From a selfish perspective, I am hoping for a chance to return quickly :)

Big fan of this company, but not of this economic climate! GLA.

LWHL There's nothing wrong in taking a profit no matter how little. May see a knock back on results day. If so I will be adding more to the pot. Good luck with your investments mate.

The 160's were too tempting, so I took profit. Totally out now. Going to wait for the next update and take a view then.

Of course, I might not get the chance to get back in. If so, GLA.

Keeping my powder dry to top up on the next pull back, so mind the gap.

Wouldn't be surprised to see more downward pressure on the share price next week looking at the charts, unless we have some positive news on internet rates. I think a few are jumping in for the dividend.

I had the same feeling yesterday, I was up 25% and jumped ship and banked some profits, if it drops back i may buy back in, but if it doesn't good luck to holders

I think people might be jumping the gun a bit, thinking recession is done and dusted. I will be topping up if we drop back down to the 140s .

Watch out for the pull back before the next leg up.

Closes around about a one year high. Very good progress since November's lows, up 40%.

I feel a lot of people are piling in for the dividend.

You're right there. It's a funny old game. It seems we're stuck in a trading range at the moment. All looks good on charts for a push north, let's hope.

Funny old game this. Kick one and they all limp and no one can tell which one has a bruise and the excuse for limping.

The interest rate staying where it is didn't help us today.

Ah old news I see-the Enquirer is late! Apologies.

Https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2024/01/30/ibstock-swoops-for-concrete-specialist-coltman-precast/

Charts looking positive for a push north.

Now's the time to buy, not in a few months when we're at £2 odd. It's about to find it's true value. The only way is up from these levels.