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Sp-3.95p
4.10p to buy.
Now and hopefully continue to rise :)
Great news thanks Adon. Was always a real concern of mine the refurbishment of that plant. Exactly the right option…
Https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1772204745693753604?s=20 https://www.tradingview.com/x/0NEuR3a5/
Short term chart looking a little toppy with a daily RSI of 82
Just topped up myself.
And a nice start to the week.
JD...well put (excuse the pun). In a recent email to Colin I congratulated their decision to use H&P. I feel this has shows both H&P's confidence with their process as well as Zephyr's ability to remain focussed on safe delivery and ultimately production.
Hi NM @ 12:34, I’m generally not a fan of SP predictions, because along the way there are always too many variables, as Zephyr’s last yr has proven, but re Malcy’s 20p.. whilst this is the most simplistic of number plays, 3000 boepd (36.2R+ non ops) x net $45 to Zephyr (& I prob need to stress.. NET), 360 days (allowing 5 days pa downtime maintenance per drill etc), USD/GBP FX 1.25, 1.7Bn Zephyr shares in issue & av US energy sector p/e 8.5 = 20p ish. The thing that’s not being taken into account for now is the p/e because frankly, as we all know, there ain’t no “e” for shareholders at the mo & whilst that’s a v simplistic take on the Nos, if Zephyr with the help of H&P, start to prove up Paradox as what we all hope it might be, we can use the same Nos whilst picking our own - insert pretty much any - P/E ratio at which point “happy days” for anyone holding Zephyr shares long. All pure speculation for now of course & surely that’s what AIM is all about but the 4p, 5p & 6p stuff ? H&P is the game changer on those Nos. Imo. GLA.
Hopefully next week the sp will reach 4p am hoping for 5-6p when drilling starts on the 36-2. Hopefully 7-8p on good results then some further news from the 16-2 which will all help. Pure guess work but hopefully with positive news it will really start to move up and the field development will then start to move forward. Hope everyone has a great Easter.
Atb,
Northern
Very encouraging to know. Thank you for sharing this Adon30, I must have missed this. Bodes well.
Atb,
Northern
It is classed as a White Sands facility. So not sure if it’ll be a central point for liquids storing before trucking or whether it’ll be directly at the state 36 pad. A central point would make more sense for logistics but depends on what the infrastructure can handle.
All the info has been available online for a month now. I did allude to it some time back ;) It is waiting on a permit, which I guess is waiting on the drill.
Hi Adon, thanks for info but where did you find the info on the Tank Battery please?
Nice spot on the tank battery Adon. Will that be sited at the well pad or the processing plant?
That is my understanding of the gas facility also. They will ship in a modular processing plant. This will be owned and ran by a third party.
Other than pipelines and possibly some condensate storage the old equipment (if there is any there) won’t be used.
And as a freebie for people on this board as no one else has spotted or commented on it. Zephyr have applied for a storage tank (tank battery) for the liquids from state 36 so are certainly expecting it to be big.
My thoughts on how I see things developing.
The value of state 16 and federal 28 will only be realised after successful production from state 36. That is certainly the main catalyst.
Very good few weeks here and lots more to come. It’s been a tough 11 months…
I’ve had some very positive interactions with a senior member of the team and with the Dominion pipelines and 16-2 ready I am told things will move fast after 36-2. The company are expecting only a short production test before it’s brought on line.
When I asked about the necessity for the refurb on the gas processing plant the answer was interesting. Yes they have to wait until the full extent of the 36-2 is known but one of the options they are exploring is a third party being brought in for some sort of modular toll agreement where they process the gas (no expenditure on capex from Zephyr etc).
Sounded like after a tough year they are v excited about what is about to come and as keen as we are to get the Paradox into production, new CPR out, get the development plan out… be bought out (they didn’t say this but that’s always been my assumption). The Paradaox is way too big to handle for Zephyr.
Adon,
Is that just your take or has that come from comms with the company?
Oil price looking very firm and expect it to increase through 2024.
State 36 will be the main earner. All that’ll need is the gas plant sorting.
State 16 I expect to be an on/off well where they try to understand how laterals will work, what flows can be achieved, any problems that may occur. They’ll need to get the gathering line in place for this but that’s not a big job. Then state 16 will be used to check overlying layers using the same approach.
Federal 28 will also be an on/off well with a bit of production. I expect they will then drill a lateral there after a bit of cash flow and understanding of state 16. Whether this is before or after overlying layers at state 16 would depend on there plan.
Then there is the salt wash drill. Hopefully they get a partner in on this. The cash flow at present doesn’t support drilling there near term without the paradox online. Hopefully they can extend the period in which they need to drill and look at it a bit later otherwise I feel that one may slip away.
Oil prices holding quite well so payback on non-ops is looking ok.
Non-op not non-ok in my last post - spell checker eh lol
Atb,
Northern
Exactly where I was coming from RiskyBusiness1 're timescales linked to the sp and yes if we can build on a couple of very positive results then I think the so will be at least a couple of times are where it currently is at. The key, as a number of people have said on here for a while is get production moving, invest in further wells and build out the field development. I also and I know some people don't agree would be happy with further non-ok investments which all helps to move Zephyr forward more quickly - all imho.
Atb,
Northern
Risky - id say 36-2 will come online before 16-2. SP would be a complete guestimate right now considering 36-2R still needs testing but there clearly isn't much value assigned to SP for the paradox basin. I feel that the CPR post testing of 36-2R could see a material shift in the SP. It may also see a partner come in to accelerate the development. Just my thoughts.
That's often in my thoughts northern. Setting an S P. Target price of 20p means nothing, unless it's quantified by a date. Let's be positive for awhile, if 36.2 can be tamed and 16.2 also comes online where would we be then?
Thanks elland,
Good to hear from you - hope all is well. Looks like after a good few days Zephyr will be heading into positive territory - with all the different meanings of that word. Would be good to hear about the 16-2 - obviously they have focus now on 36-2 but presumably they have been looking at ways to resolve the salt issue they talked about some time ago re the 16-2. Have a great weekend.
Atb,
Northern
Molatov - its a double edged sword. Higher pressure usually means higher flowrate but 9800psi is still pretty substantial and i think the company share that sentiment