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Cheers for the price updates, hypothetical was because I didn't know, have been quite busy of late and haven't done my research on prices here for the smokes, I just know its going to be huge. You can't under estimate the size of the distribution deal ZOE have landed. It's unreal. This will be a share of the decade.
Obstando,
My understanding is that the profit margin is hoped to be (eventually) approx 50% but is currently more like 30%. However, that will not be based upon the retail price, it will be based upon the wholesale price. My understanding is that a pack retails at approx $10 of which Zoe only receive about 50%, so approx $5. The profit margin (after cost to produce etc) would then eventually be 50% so about $2.50, but currently will be more like 30% so about $1.50 per pack.
So the current profit per $10 pack is currently about $1.50 which will possibly rise, eventually to $2.50 profit per $10 pack.
The Chill packs retail just under $10 so I would work on $2.50 profit per pack at the moment (it will improve in time).
The numbers are easy to calculate and still make good reading
Weathergeek, I know your post said hypothetical sales data, but suggested ZOE make $10 profit on a $22 dollar pack of smoked sold via a distributor is er, how shall I put it - fantasy economics
By all means project away, but try using something more realistic.
You can make the numbers look big, but it doesn't make them look clever
The smokes are $9.99 a pack, I know this cause smoker friendly did an insta story on them. If you know how big the smoker friendly chain is in the US then you can just chill
Here's some hypothetical sales data.
Sell one pack of CBD smokes at $22 per store per day at a profit of $10. Just USA distribution, no rest of world, no other product sales.
365 days x $10 = $3,650
10,000 stores year 1 = $36,500,000 PA Profit
20,000 stores year 2 = $73,000,000 PA Profit
40,000 stores year 3 = $146,000,000 PA Profit
88,000 stores year 4 = $292,000,000 PA Profit
Lets get a bit more hype and say we sell 10 packs a day per store.
365 days x $100 = $36,500
10,000 stores year 1 = $365,000,000 PA Profit
20,000 stores year 2 = $730,000,000 PA Profit
40,000 stores year 3 = $1,460,000,000 PA Profit
88,000 stores year 4 = $2,920,000,000 PA Profit
This will be a cash cow like you have never seen. This will reward all long term holders greatly and will pay great dividends to those who hold from the early days. Loving the fact this has come back and I can load up more!
silly billy - I think you overlooked (probably deliberately) a key part of the deal.
"The Company also retains the right to specify a minimum acceptable price during the pricing period" so any dip in the SP does not automatically mean greater dilution as you insinuate.
LDA Capital will also be party to more information than the general investor so when the first draw down happens it will be a good indicator of how they see progress if we haven't received an update by that point.
Billy boy.
ZOE not worried about the drawdown price. News will come when it comes and I’m betting on it being real darn good. The draw down can then be taken once the funds are needed to speed up the U.K. distribution or the Asia distribution or the European distribution but will definitely be used on the US rollout to 10000 high footfall stores and the 850 smoker friendly stores and we know it’s Smiker Friendly as a few phone calls to their shops in Colorado asking if they stock CHILL is all you need to do to know they are rolling rolling rolling out that stock
Morning billy the troll!
Could you please short a little bit more, still got a little more room in the ISA, thanks.
Yawn zzzz
Keepdreaming,
...........when the news is released and the market sees the potential of this little beauty..........
I would suggest that with a mcap of £156m and revenue of £54k (6 mths to 30th Sept), the potential is already somewhat priced into the sp. What is needed now is for ZOE to prove that their products are actually selling in the stores that they have already been rolled out to. Without this, I suggest the current sp drop from £1+ to £1-, 90p-,80p- will slowly continue to 70p-, 60p-, 50p- etc, etc.
If sales data is good, why are ZOE happy to see the sp slowly decreasing week by week. Surely, the lower the sp, the more dilution will prevail from the initial £15m draw down from LDA Capital ????
Just re-read my last post. I meant, I think your lucky to have had a lovely relationship with your Dad, bit like D&D with his son.
Good night all and take care.
Craigy - Agree with most of your points raised.
Take care my friend and enjoy your time with your Dad, you are very lucky indeed.
Fair points KD.
Craigy - I agree that the USA listing needs promoting more. There’s a reason the American markets are always more buoyant than ours, and I am sure they will be thinking about this as it will really help.
Can you imagine once they get this going how little free float there will be?
Even now this share is pretty tightly held in my estimation (there are a few documents out there indicating the share register that have been posted here before that confirm), but even with full LDA shares exercised over time we are probably only looking at 250 million shares (currently 200 mill of course). That is not very many at all, and is one of the reasons (besides the superb prospects of Zoetic) that the shorters are struggling to take this down and are only just taking the edge off us if anything.
BD - Regarding early takeout, I know a few discussions have been had on this subject here and on Telegram, but I must admit, for me personally I can’t see it for a little while because if our CEO’s, ES and possibly JS know how well the roll out across the USA, and the interest from Uk, Europe and Asia is, they will also know or have some idea of potential value. I believe they will not recommend that we accept anything less than the true potential value, which if that actually is possibly a billion dollar profit potential - according to JS - then who knows.... £50 or more ???
I also don’t believe our CEOs will recommend any takeover by a tabaco company either. I think it is AR who has spoken about his dislike of the industry from family experience, and his wish to break / replace it.
Look forward to it.
Wow Craigy your mate's son is a very lucky lad. ( nice clubs )
Bit of a hacker myself. Just play ( hack ) a few times a year with my son and knackered lungs means I need a buggy to get around.
You sound like a hell of a good bloke. Hopefully, when this takes off, a very rich bloke!
Agree BD - The last results included very little from our current business and all associated with the previous O&G incarnation, and that is why we find ourselves with so many ill-researched, crowd following shorter's. Shorter's who will find themselves at the end of a share price that will increase rather sharply over a short ;-) time frame, when the news is released and the market sees the potential of this little beauty.
D&D - I like the sound of that. If this goes the way i/we think, i will look forward to a round or two with you and, some fishing to.
Best your you and yours.
I agree KD - This can definitely be a life changer of a share.
All we need to see in the next update is that initial sales and reaction to the products are indicated to be strong, and the beginning of a reduction of losses to show where this goliath is headed. It will take some time to fully roll-out and scale, but the market is forward looking and will start doing the maths if these things happen.
I also look forward to engaging with the unsubtle shorters if and when this is shown to be the case.
The bigger concern right now is early takeout before true value is able to be realised.
Like the sound of "life changing" KD.
But don't want to change it too much......( Eat, drink, golf, fishing, sleep......repeat )
Best wishes to all.
No doubt this message will be a duplication to, so apologies all, not sure whats happening this afternoon.
I hope so Bluerill, but in any case, i think this is going to be a life changing share for many over the next 6 - 12 months.
I do hope so Bluerill, but in any case, I think this could be life changing for many over the next 6 - 12 months.
Don't worry, kd. You are likely to see your heart's desire in the next update
Not sure what happened to my last post, anyway.
Bluerill - I do agree with you in that we should get a trading update by the end of April, or into May, but will the trading update have information concerning the stores roll out numbers and sales figures?
The September reference that is just so "ridiculous" was about just that. TT and AR may elect to hold that, or some of it back until September, not to leave a road map for others to follow.
Much better now, thank you.