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Hi all,
Away on my travels during the excitement, now playing catch-up.
Thoughts :
-Initially disappointed at missing deadlines (self-imposed), a rod for their own back. I wonder whether they had a Strategic Investor lined up and there was a set-back ? From the timing, my WAG would be Saudi ...with GLEN jibbing at Manara's offtake demand (?).
No worries, Elphick speaks at the end of 'interest from strategic investorS_...'
- as the original FS timeline suggested and others have pointed out, the SI (s) would want to see the latest numbers before committing. I take 'peer' review to be ZIOC's own 'tame consultants' to appraise the Chinese work...
- as to whether ZIOC are short-staffed or not, surely the recently-incentivised management team should be burning the midnight oil, if needed ?!
If things are as advanced as we believe, most of the work will be sub-contracted or awaiting input/enquiries from the counterparts, no?
- appointment of Shard Capital as joint broker I see as a 'necessary evil' - term used advisedly ;-<
The first 2 x Tranches raised funds at avge 6.9p - not exciting. The Third Tranche is at ZIOC's discretion, it'll be interesting to see when/if they take it up . The GLEN loan extension runs for 4 months to July, ie a month beyond the 'snapshot'/test-date interims, hopefully long enough to cater for all eventualities.
- as to 'informing the market'/reassuring PI's , it seems unlikely ZIOC'll oblige. Why should they ? (a) if there's still jockeying around, they won't want to tip their hand/indicate a preference/alienate someone (anyone) unnecessarily or inadvertently.....apart from anything else, think of the potential media circus.....and (b) I don't think PI's figure largely if at all- in their calculations: we're an irrelevance at best and a nuisance/inconvenience at worst...
All AFAICS,
GLA and ATB
Hmm.. how much time would it take AT to do a ZOOM interview for 20 mins? Field some agreed question in a 'soft' interview? With prep time an hour? There is enough to talk about now without going into specifics.
A big chunk of the placing money in Q1 went on part repaying the Glencore loan - in Q1 alone $700k repaid or roughly £560k. I find this a bit odd as I thought the point was to basically keep rolling it over till the deal, when it could be easily repaid with v minimal dilution. However, 12m shares is only around 2% dilution, which by AIM standards is of course minute. And I absolutely agree with others pointing out that it is most definitely in the company's financial interest to maintain a positive investor relations climate when you are continually placing.
Given how few full time staff we have; really AT & Marty + maybe some consultants; I imagine they are mega busy possibly continually flying between UK, Saudi, maybe UAE, & China. So realistically I guess we have to cut AT some slack vis IR at such a time.
ATG- Marty cannot buy as he has access to the updated costing report.
a) The review and re-costing phase of the 2014 FS has been completed and a near-final report has been received from the Company's Chinese EPC Partner, and this has progressed to peer and ZIOC board review.
b) The final results of the 2014 FS update are expected to be announced during April 2024.
Although I agree an investor relations/media update would be nice, let’s be honest with ourselves the deal is 99% done.
I’m sure it frustrates Ephlick & board as much as us to have to place shares @ 8p, but it has been kept to a absolute minimum(seems the 3rd tranche is not currently being proposed to be placed!), and has been highly necessary to provide working capital to progress project.
On a more positive note…”it’s nearly isa time”, just hoping the share price doesn’t explode before the 8th!!
This quarter will be EPIC here, mark my words!!
Gla.
Could also ask, why are they happy to drip placing shares at 7p, when they could do investor interviews etc to support share price. We have kind of become used to being totally ignored as market participants..
Now the market has been updated, maybe our CEO would like to buy some shares in company to demonstrate his confidence in its future...rather than waiting for a free share handout.? Just a thought, maybe we could message the company?
Perhaps time for the company to look at a new IR function.. someone who can dedicate full time to it..
Actually Shaun I clicked recommend on your comment on the other board from 27 March in response to a post by Veteran10, it reflected my thoughts exactly:
"V10, considering they hit targets early for re-costings and hydro-power, why do you think they’ve missed the strategic partner and port targets? And if they were going to miss these targets, why didn’t they update the minute they knew they were going to miss those targets?"
We are surely all angling for the same thing as of today: 2024 FS, Strategic Investor MOU & finally a higher share price.
Impossible to bring in a strategic investor without the updated FS, as it likely holds an updated NPV. That’s down to PSEI. And whether we can bring in a strategic prior to port MOU.. who knows. Over the next 3 months I expect we’ll be trading much higher.
Hi ATG, lot of activity over Easter & some interesting perspectives. I agree with most of your points btw. My concern remains that according to their timeline we were going to get the key Strategic Investor MOU by end Q1 & we did't get it or indeed a revised date we could expect it. Aside from that it will be interesting to see what April brings after the FS update - hopefully a presentation by our new CEO with some guidance as to the remaining MOU completions. We all hope April will be positive for ZIOC shareholders.
Very nicely put Eggs, I am sure a few who have lightened up or can see the life changing upside will be looking to get in early next week!
Most holders held coming up to RNS. RNS still gives hope so I would expect even fewer sellers left now. So to me, a great buy at this or slightly higher levels due to a lack of sellers buyers will have to pay up. This share price is only going one way in the coming weeks IMO. Wish I had more money to invest here. Loaded already, 10p average but would be nice to have that average even lower. This will be life-changing financially when the big news comes but one's health is much more important than that so will keep it in perspective then. Best of luck to all the patient LTH's here.
Spot on, Driving.
With KP2 also seemingly close to announcing financing, its going to be an exciting year for the country too. Once the port is developed and Zanaga and Kore Potash are in production, it will be a huge boost for their economy - even though all are realistically 3-5 years away from being fully active. Denis' legacy possibly?
Some excellent posts all, and agree with what’s been outlined. I reiterate that the update was not only positive, but most importantly on time. This fact is very important, as it continues the trend of updating the PI’s of progress and sticking to timelines since the reforming of the company structure in late 2022.
The biggest short term question is, whether the market begins “believing” the development process is beginning. Realistically our market cap could(should) jump 10 fold+ on securing a path to funding for stage 1 development(our market cap will be in the billions on being fully funded IMO), and anyone with half a brain should be able to see that we are getting ever closer to exactly that..exciting times!
Bring on next week..and hopefully a “awaking moment “ for our share price!
Gla.
There is nothing to stop any bidder forcing Glencore to release its steely grip on this and its marketing strings. It simply needs a killer bid of great size to do that.. otherwise, develop the mine ZIOC will..
Anything could still happen, imo..
Totally agree that the project should be developed by a bigger company with substantial funds behind them -either outright sale by ZIOc or entitlement to share of future profits.
Glencore have only got to look at the disaster that has unfolded at HZM (where they have a shareholding and offtake agreement) to see what can go wrong when a small company tries to develop a large mine
I was travelling yesterday so saw that RNS in the queue for boarding! First reaction, of course frustrated as like many I want to realise my investment here after several years. Knauth still didn't comment in the RNS. 5 months and we have never heard from him. Not overly keen on the joint broker aspect, that sometimes means placing but then we know already that they favour the tranches approach to raising funds. I do understand that any serious strategic investors will want to see the new costings etc before offering. Are they the 'peers' referred to in the RNS? I don't think ZIOC should go down the route of trying to develop/raise millions for the mine. Sell to a bigger fish with deeper pockets. April should be better for us going by the RNS, patience required as you say.
The RNS seemed fairly bullish on the port, not Q1 MOU as targeted, but still heading in the right direction. Again a huge undertaking the port and tied to the FS update, so more patience alas 😌. It seems the April FS release will hopefully unlock the MOUs..
"Port MoU: Significant progress has been made in securing interest from large scale port development companies interested in participating in the development of port infrastructure for the Zanaga Project. In parallel with the 2014 FS update process, these discussions are progressing.'
Hi Jiving, I understand your frustration and the shift in language regarding investors. However, I think the company gave the Q1 target in good faith. It is hard to know what is going on behind the scenes..
The recosting may have thrown up new engineering variations and possibilities. The new CEO with his vast practical experience may have a thrown in possible adjustments. All these things could have extended the recosting and financial modelling completion. Understandly, any investor (s) would say show us the final thing before we commit to an MOU.
Further, there may be competition between investors (as we only want one?) leading to more horse trading. I suspect the situation may still be fairly fluid?
You may say this making up excuses, but there reality is anybody committing to a multi billion Pound project will want it right, it takes time. Forget the past time elapsed, we are where we are. Nobody cares if the PIs are impatient 😌
To me it still all looks highly promising and we are oh so close. My positive hat remains firmly on.
Yes, themention of preparation for FEED phase is highly encouraging. From the November investor presentation the capex costs of the FEED stage 1 and 2 are $22 and $11m respectively (page 14). Zanga cannot afford this without an investor coming aboard. So the FEED prep is a sign of confidence, imo.
Typing errors
Sorry for typisk but currently on yacht holiday in Caribien so only writing from my phone as relaxing and in no stress mode😎
My tale om this is that the price tag is only known once we know the update on FS study. They need this as the current one is 10 years old. Any investor or buyer need to get the updated FS result to be able to agree on a price for investing. This we will get in April. So for me things are moving ahead and once we get the updated FS we will be close to a final deal on this project and we can hopefully move on and be rewarded for the long waiting. My own opinion is the waiting will be worth it. Lets see
Despite the majority showing huge disappointment, it was the RNS i exoected and we are getting closer and closer to development.
I cannot see anything to be annoyed about. The board have had no interest is selling Zanaga, and have always wanted to develope. And that is exactly what they are doing.
First time company has mentioned being in the FEED stage. We seem to be deep into the 2nd phase now.
Activity
Preparation for Front End Engineering (FEED) - 6 months
FEED (including finalisation of necessary licences & approvals, infrastructure access & user agreements, and financing) - 12 months
Construction Phase - 3 years