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I agree but also think the window opened up around H2 / Q4 2020 when the key market factors started lining up. More likely now than at any time within the last 10 yrs, but I don't think that means a deal cannot or wont happen if it is not done and dusted in 2021.
Thats OK, as long as you are mildly amused Mr Dude !
your comment is absolutely the nail on the head, Aberdeenman..
"This really is THE most opportune time to invest in ZIOC, because it is before anything happens at the time when there is most likely to be something happen in the short to medium term."
This really is THE WINDOW when something significant could happen. I think the next 60 days might be pivotal..
From the various comments...
I agree the current price is irrelevant, however, the long-term price is, and the current price has a bearing on the longer-term price.
China doubling its economy by 2035 is massive, and exponential, as the demand for steel will not just double, but maybe much much more than that as the effects ripple out to other countries, and it will require a lot of infrastructure to bring up parts of the country that are rural backwaters. They will also have to invest in other countries to make the plan happen, belt and road, and strategic resources like Zanaga. Other advanced economies may also start looking at basic commodities from a strategic/National Security point of view, given America is becoming ever more protectionist.
Add in the post covid stimulus from other advanced economies and I have zero doubt we are at the start of a commodities supercycle.
This really is THE most opportune time to invest in ZIOC, because it is before anything happens at the time when there is most likely to be something happen in the short to medium term.
Never any guarantees, but the reward multiples stack up to make it worthwhile dropping a reasonable amount of cash in here IMO.
No doubt preaching to the converted, buy what the hell.
Aberdeenman
Hi ShrewdDude67,
Totally agree that the current high price is 'interesting but irrelevant', because ZIOC/ZANAGA is not in a position to take advantage of it....but it does provide an indication of the sort of gross margins available, which provide a 'commercial/business case' underpinning to new investment.
Meanwhile, the second of 99icecream's links suggests that the fear that we are currently at/near a cyclical 'high' is exaggerated : rather supportive, in fact of the recent JP Morgan claim that commodities may be at the start of a 20 year 'super-cycle', with strong long-term demand underpinnings.
And the 'Brucie bonus' is that the demand mentioned in the article isn't coming from any random commercial quarter, answerable [maybe] to its shareholders if it makes a wrong call , but from 'a blueprint jointly released on Wednesday by the Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party and the State Council, the country’s cabinet..."
So there'll now be a lot of extra political interest in 'delivering' on the Party's vision.
And we end up singing from the same hymn-sheet : "Just ask yourself, if not now, when ?"
;->
ATB
It mildly amuses me when people talk about the sky high price of iron ore. It doesn't affect Zioc sp one iota because we do not produce anything (apart from can-kicking RNS's and numerous studies). If we were bringing the ore out of the ground then it would be very material, but we ain't any time soon.
My fear is that if we don't cut a deal now at these sky high prices, then once the cycle changes and ore price drops we are mothballed again for another 5 or 10 years. Surely, SURELY this isn't what the BoD want. Any reasonable deal makes all of them multimillionaires.
I've said it a few times now - it's 2021 or bust for Zioc.
China sets 15-year transport expansion plan as it seeks to double size of economy by 2035 (N.B. Requires Lots of Steel !!)
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3123151/china-sets-15-year-transport-expansion-plan-it-seeks-double