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Hi all,
So far, it's
extrader 200p Alzheimer's Research
technician 384p Epilepsy Research UK
Dr Remington 250p ? chosen charity
Popples 1250p Forget Me Not
Rej23 450p Anthony Nolan
ShrewdDude67 - 460p - Macmillan cancer support
Roll up, roll up !
ATB
Hi Jay12 et al,
If you listen to AT's interview , he adds some 'colour' to the bald details of the RNS [ added here] , in particular this para :
"COIDIC is a company specialized in the early stage development [ IE THE PROJECT SPONSOR OR CO_ORDINATOR] of energy and infrastructure projects in Africa, including Congo-Brazzaville, and in regions of China's Belt and Road Initiative. COIDIC's Founding shareholders include some of China's leading institutions such as China-Africa Development Fund (CADFund), a subsidiary of China Development Bank, [ IE THE MONEY ] as well as China Gezhouba Group International Engineering Co. Ltd., [IE SOUNDA DAM] China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) [IE THE SEZ} , China ENFI Engineering Corporation (China ENFI) specialized in mineral and mining [ IE THE SLURRY PIPELINE ] , China Telecom International [IE THE WIRETAPS - joke !], Hebei Construction & Investment Group Co Ltd. (HCIG), and Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research. …"
I didn't catch the precise cross-reference, but AT also stated that one member of the Group had responsible for a copper mine in RoC [IE MINING EXPERTISE] and another had been responsible for 80% of Chiana BRI African railway network [ IE RAILWAY ]
We're all agreed that one of the things holding things up is the complexity of interlocking interests that all need to be put into lockstep and where the success of the whole is dependent on the successful execution of each part.
In Western terms, the above grouping of interests is what you would see if someone was bidding for a LUMP-SUM TURNKEY project.
Except here the Chinese are doing for a country, not just an industry. To show their notional client (Nguesso) and their actual client (President Xi)
That's my take, anyway.
ATB
Jay,
"This unlocks the door for us (and ROC with power/road/rail options). This in turn unlocks the potential of the mine as infrastructure plans will be in place....."
So the obvious question is, why should COIDIC be involved if this opens the door to others that may be interested ?
Answer, the door requires a secret password, Xi holds that and it will not be long imo before the doors are blown off and the riches are revealed.
No way will this be a drawn out affair, we are being courted atm, soon to be engaged, then married and divorce settlement to follow ££££.
aimo
Now its
So its
Thanks for the input ! So now we've got
extrader 200p Alzheimer's Research
technician 384p Epilepsy Research UK
Dr Remington 250p ? chosen charity
Popples 1250p Forget Me Not
Rej23 450p Anthony Nolan
You really are dim Eric, go away
450p for me.
Anthony Nolan
So its
Thanks for the input ! So now we've got
extrader 200p Alzheimer's Research
technician 384p Epilepsy Research UK
Dr Remington 250p ? chosen charity
Popples 1250p Forget Me Not
Any more willing to see their name in lights ?
£12.50 for me. Forget Me Not charity. Thanks
Hi Dr Remington,
Thanks for the input ! So now we've got
extrader 200p Alzheimer's Research
technician 384p Epilepsy Research UK
Dr Remington 250p ? chosen charity
Any more willing to see their name in lights ?
ATB
I wouldn't really know how to work out a sale cost, but judging on factors such as: Resource size, Resource quality, Simandou reported sale price, Global Ore demand, Capex cost, experience of the BOD, IPO Price, Time taken to get to this stage, Amount of shares, Glencore owning 50%:
I'd certainly like to think several £s. I'll throw a guess at £2.50, if i must.
I'm not convinced exactly what the Simandou offer is. All I have seen are the figures that have been given in the press. There is no indication of whether these figures constitute a cash offer or something else. That's why I am not paying too much attention to them until I know exactly how the offers are structured.
Anyway, back to the matter in hand:
extrader 200p Alzheimer's Research
technician 384p Epilepsy Research UK
Hi technician,
I see you've posted on target prices before ! So :
Name share price nominated charity
extrader 200p Alzheimer's Research
technician 384 ?
If willing to play, just plug in your chosen charity and cut and paste, for others to add.
£ 100 to the charity chosen by whoever guesses nearest the eventual sale price.
ATB
Interesting.
So using your calculations how did these compute for Simandou?
Sold for £10 a share apparently excluding infrastructure costs.
Working it backwards if Chinese took out capex and other costs, except infrastructure; what would the net have been to start with?
Beats me but I can’t see much difference between that mine and ours.
So I don’t think £2 will be acceptable.
And I don’t believe it will take 2 years for due diligence.
The Chinese will already have costed the infrastructure. I bet they know already how much each foot of railway will cost and how much the port will cost. They would have done this before showing their hand. IMO.
In the case of a buy out I believe the share value could be in the range of £1.50 to £4.50.
If I had to put a figure on it I would give a hugely optimistic £3.84 per share.
Hi scottology,
I beg to differ.
Even if there is £ 100 of 'value' (whatever you mean by that), over the life of the mine, that's over 40 years. The most adventurous rate at which that cashflow would be discounted would likely leave you with around £ 25-30 of current money 'value'.
You have to pay the capex at/near the start of the 40 years ie near 'current money' and knock that off (£2-3bn) over how many shares (no dilution ? Congo's free 10% ? tax/royalty regime ? sweeteners to third party contractors ? charge for any free carry ? etc etc).
The Chinese have a strategic/political interest in PN deepwater port and good rail access to Central African Republic etc, but what' they'd pay up for the purely commercial side of things ie Zanaga is another matter - in fact, they'd probably want to squeeze the costs of that down to cross-subsidize the other stuff and make the overall numbers work...
The reality is, until we see detailed terms, we're both 'spit-balling' . We like CEO's who 'under-promise and over-deliver' and don't set themselves - or their shareholders - up for a fall, why should we as PI's on a bulletin board act differently ?
ATB
PS I'll be happy to be 'surprised and delighted' if we get - net - anything more than £2.00. If your defence is 'It's just a bit of fun' why not start a book.... we each nominate our target price and chosen charity, whoever is nearest to the outcome, his/her charity benefits. Suggest £100 donation (peanuts, if the boat comes in).
I'll start the ball rolling with target price £ 2.00 and nominated charity Alzheimers Research...
Don't be fooled by those predicting a £2 per share takeover. It will be considerably more.
£12 (one of my old targets) would be considered low ball based on the latest figures for Simandou
Given the much smaller funding requirements here, a $20billion bid for the full Zanaga mine wouldn't be hard to achieve.
That means $10billion to ZIOC holders or £25 per share.
Remember there is over £100 of value in this over the life of the mine with plenty of scope to increase the reserves, meaning significant upside still with the buyers.
Buy and hold.