We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Even with your figures P3T3R, we would have to generate 14.1 mill in H2 excluding covid to reach the original 22.3 mill forecast. That's 75% more in h2 than h1.
So it's clear our core business has taken a massive hit to the growth targets from the covid pandemic. We have not been given even the smallest hint that this was the case.
Partly the companies fault Bakky. We have had a giant void of any meaningfull covid related news for 7 months starting with the Ncyt tie up. Speculation will run rife in the absence of accurate and regular thorough updates of which we have had none.
However I am pretty sure even those investors with the lowest of expectations have been left underwhelmed by today's TU.
Bakky,
'limited' capacity for testing stretches to 'tens of thousands per month', which isn't too shabby as an add on rev stream to be fair!“
Your expectations, just seven days ago.
We thought we had a core business largely unaffected by covid and all pointers for a positive rns perhaps even beating forecasts. The TU poured some cold water on that and LR, but a new realism is a good position to be in. Bring on more news and let's over deliver!
N+1 Singer are sticking with their £24.8m FY estimate, the TU remains in line with their expectations...
.. "and would like to point out the following as, inter alia, being supportive to the FY estimates, i) the acqusition of Coastal Genomics and x5 Genomics towards the end of the period; ii) growth in DYPD; iii) recovery in momentum in NIPT post the launch of IONA Nx in September opening up new customers and markets, and iv) the launch and expansion of the group's Covid-19 services and products."
"Net cash at end of period was £11.9m"
if peoples expectations were not so ridiculous then there wouldn't be a problem!
The core business it is then. Can’t help but conclude that expectations re Covid have been poorly managed by the Co.
Six months ago the Co. was happy to announce a link with Ncyt, was talking to the nhs, etc, but then investors began to speculate re numbers in the absence of any meaningful Covid news, It even feels LR was pushed at the end of July into providing a quarterly Covid update, which I assume is the one sparsely provided here today.
May be time for LR to look closely at the cost-base of this Co, starting with the disproportionate size of the BOD, not far from the size of the government Cabinet.
I do believe some of the gloss has come off LR today, but hope springs eternal.
"Consensus forecast was for 25 mill. That consensus figure didn't even include any covid bonus, so which ever way you look at it from purely a figures perspective it is a terrible performance."
Not true.
I think you will find that consensus 2021 forecast (Walbrook) was originally £22.3m (Aug) and then increased by £3m in Sept to £25.3m (6 mths covid).
Align Research forecast £21.3m for 2021 (Aug) without covid contribution.
andymiller; you said, 'Let's be honest not what we were looking for'...just what were you/we looking for??? For me I am happy to hear they are doubling and more Covid testing/sales. Not sure if this includes govt work or not?
Figures wise, there is no denying it is very disappointing. At no point in the last 6/7 months has LR even intimated that core sales might have taken a hit and they claarly have. We even carried over 400k from last year and the figures are poor.
Numbers wise, let's take a closer look.
8.2mill revenue from operations in H1. In H2 we will get 1.5mill covid revenue from 10k tests a month, Oct, Nov, Dec. 3mill covid revenue for 20k tests a month jan, Feb, March. I'll be generous and give core operation revenue of 10 Mill for h2. That gives us 22.7 mill for fy 20/21.
Consensus forecast was for 25 mill.
That consensus figure didn't even include any covid bonus, so which ever way you look at it from purely a figures perspective it is a terrible performance.
Overheads will have increased, head count certainly has so I expect ebitda to also take a hit.
There isn't a single person who writes on this board that didn't expect better figures especially from our core markets. And that's because LR has consistently sounded bullish.
Hopefully, there are some rabbits and hats knocking about because what ever way you look at it, Ygen has taken a hit because of covid, and not the other way around.
The covid work isn't even mnaking up for the lost growth in our core offerings.
I'm just happy to continue topping up again. Focus on the core business which has great future potential and stop comparing to NCYT. I'm glad another tree shake has caused these covid dreamers to disappear. The quarterly update in December will provide further evidence in how the company is performing. Looking forward to it.
Don't agree that this is bad news but do agree that it does offer a buying opportunity.
People shouldn't be selling but it does no harm as it just gets weak holders out.
Ygen progressing very well, maybe small steps but a stronger company emerging.
don't know about 'rose coloured specs' but some need to get their head out of the clouds!! Ygen are upto capacity atm and are doubling/tripling this capacity as we speak. So why did anyone expect anything more?? Also, why do people compare to NCYT et al, completely bonkers some folk!! Anyway hopefully said 'dreamers' have/will departed, that's one very good thing to come out of this update!!
So, yet another buying opp that I did NOT want!
So, another buying opp that I did NOT want to see!
You make incorrect assumptions galore DCooper.
I see the price is down on our TU. Guess I was right!
Twix,
you need to be rationale to have a rational conversation. You have been talking this up and down to suit your agenda for too long. No need to reply unless you really are full of BS and need to get it out.
Sorry hemo not hemp lol
Indeed hemp
Due to DCoopers previous behaviour I will not engage further. A reprehensible character in line with Natdan. Otherwise I would be fine to have a rationale discussion with any rationale poster.
The entire gang is out wanting them cheaper.
Nipt sales are back on trend. Read the rns
the company ios on the right track but not for rainbow chasers!
Not happy? Sell.
With Boots offering a 12 minute test for £120 Quid (97% accuracy) then we may not make 1 Mill anyway - just as well our core business is growing and appears to be accelerating after the pandemic slow down.
Totally agree with you Twix.
Let’s take off the rose-tinted glasses and be objective.
For me that was a shocker of a TU and well below expectations.
I even feel misled by LR who assured us that core trading was strong.
Falling international and NIPT revenues clearly demonstrate that was not the case.
5% growth is not good enough. Declining NIPT revenues is not good enough when reassured otherwise. 20,000 Covid tests per month from January is not good enough. There was no reason to delay these results other than fear of the disappointment they would cause.
An absolute shocker for me against expectations.
Funny fact, since the CE approval of Yourgene ClariGene IVD, the NCYT share has gone up with 416 %
Yourgene has gone up with..... never mind :-))
Twix,
it's only the start for ygen in the covid space. We are selling the test internationally which is not account for in the £1 mill per month of testing revenue. There is plenty of scope for additional growth and this as detailed has only really started since the beginning of October. £1 mill a month can be scaled up to £2 mill a month and so on without a doubt.
Yourgene's UK COVID-19 testing service is expanding rapidly and from the beginning of October 2020 is now operating at its full capacity of 10,000 tests per month. Capacity is being further expanded to 20,000 tests per month which is due to come on stream in the third quarter. This will increase COVID-19 testing revenue potential to approximately £1m per month and there is potential for further expansion in line with anticipated demand. This in-house testing uses Yourgene's own Clarigene® Sars-CoV-2 product, which is also being sold internationally through our distribution network in our channel markets and through our growing direct sales force. Regulatory submissions for Clarigene® are underway to access additional key regions and enable further geographical penetration.
Does anyone want to address my question in post 7.34am? Is there two different time frames mentioned on the 20,000 tests?