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Bakky, agreed, safe as houses with huge potential.
I think we can all agree that the trend for Ygen is very much up, up and away! It's also worth noting it's a pretty good defensive stock too in these pandemic, and projected 'market crash' days. Imo it's as 'safe as houses' you can get right now.
pacman yes absolutely! It's fair to say Ygen is a brilliant prospect in the coming weeks, months and years. It is still very much under the radar, so now is the time to buy imo.
Cooper; the 500k capacity is for the manufacture of the test only, so it would work out at circa 160/170k a month from when he first said it in Sept.
Testing capacity in Oct is still only about 10k as projected. Going forward is now what counts. We will have the capacity for many more of both, but we will have to outsource some of it too.
Bakky,
I see what your saying, re prices of the test. What I would say to counter that is we have capacity of 500k test between now and xmas say. Then going forward should the right contracts be agreed/awarded and capacity can grow even further.
We have many more strings to our bow than covid to rely on when compared with ncyt or anyone else. We also have ability to scale the operations up from here should the demand increase. I'm very optimistic going in to the winter months that we will be going full steam ahead. I know Lyn rees was coy about impacting BAU but he knows that there is massive potential and he's got to say that for the sake of the markets. I believe he will be looking to scale up in a big way if the opportunity arises.
Those predictions could however be blown out of the water with a nasdaq listing where they price companies such as Ygen at much greater multiples.
pacman, yes totally agree with that!
For me Bakky I'm only seeing as far as a doubling in the SP from here.
Revenue of £35 million (imminently achievable) should see us achieve 40p and a corresponding increase in EBITDA. Not too bothered about turning a profit yet, would put growth before profit. Didnt hurt amazon.
sorry to pi ss on everyone's chips, but imo we won't be at £1 a share anytime soon. Revenue will need to be into many hundreds of millions with tens of millions of profit first. It's anyone's guess when/if that ever happens but it won't be for a while. You only have to look at what NCYT have/are doing and their mcap is still 'only' £843m
As I said I hope I'm wrong, but we need to be realistic too so some don't get too disappointed!!
Cooper. but we won't be getting £150 though. Align gives a figure of £42 for Ygen per test. Can't remember if that's from Caxton's prices? Not too sure if/how many we do directly to customers but it's probably mainly through a third party like Recova or Mediskills.
pacman, I think he's correct not to jeopardise the core business. He's explained Covid is 'adjacency' revenue but that's not to say they are standing still. It's not quite as easy as people think to ramp up production, especially in such a short timescale, Recruitment will be the most problematic for them. The calibre of people they want are not two a penny are they?
They say they are doing slightly more than 10k but I don't think it will be many more atm. However going forward could well be a different animal when they have fully recruited and govt work comes onboard.
I won't be disappointed if they are at or just above 10k for Oct, anything else is a big bonus.
I hope that I'm wrong and they will be ' blowing the doors off' very soon!
Bakky,
£150 x 30k 4.5 mill x 12 = 54 mill that's based on a projection over 12 months and does not include the core business which is growing all the time. I assume we will also ge to the stage where we are doing a lot more than 30k per month.
I appreciate we won't be getting £150 for all tests but I based on they figures mention in the metro.
Yes would definately need a rabbit out of the hat moment to get 720million mcap. Here's hoping.
Cooper, not sure how you get Ygen to £720m+ mcap with 30k+ tests. I would imagine that the majority will be govt testing, which will be much lower prices. They are only planning for 6 months too by the looks of it. I know it could well be longer but that's it atm. If the test numbers are much bigger then we have to outsource and our cut becomes smaller again.
I am looking for those higher figures Cooper. 10k was mentioned a month ago and since then cases have skyrocketed and NHS testing has had problems. If we are still at the level that was mentioned a month ago then that will be a disappointment.
We have two cqc certified testing labs in manchester now and millions raised from a placing that should be being ploughed into capacity upgrades.
I hope he's not holding back but going for it.
I don't buy this, 'we are not going to jeopardise our core offering'.
For me it's just being used as a plausible excuse for not taking the throttle off.
A bit less hesitation a few months ago and we could be in the stratosphere now, and reaching for the stars. As it is we are just on the runway about to take off hopefully.
Quietly confident on the update, think it's a rabbit out of the hat moment. But, there's also the opportunity lurking that will leave us underwhelmed.
Sailplane, Align research have done some figures and have a number of circa £42 a test for Ygen in the private sector. Maybe the prices have come down a bit since then, but still good numbers. The govt work will obviously be much less but we don't know what that figure is. The govt say they hope to get a 15 minute saliva test by xmas. That is the way testing is going ( Bhavika mentioned in the webinar) even though atm it's less accurate. Let's hope the 'team' at Ygen can get something sorted in that direction too!
With 10k a month the revenue it generates is great at those kind of prices. It should and will add value to the share price once we get our update.
With 20k using the above numbers we more than double last years figures for the whole year with our covid offering alone and that's without any of the core business which is why we had a great year last year.
With 30k a month we will be on a completely different level and imo that's what's coming and more imo
Anything over 30k a month and we will be well and truly over the £1 level.
Apparently:
"A number of companies are offering private tests with quick turnaround on results – with prices appearing to start from between £100-£150 and in some cases go as high as £300 or more."
according to:
https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/22/how-much-is-a-private-covid-test-13307057/
And from YGEN 22sept20 AGM Statement, re COVID-19 service lab in Manchester :
"The expansion and custom refit of our Manchester laboratories will see us routinely processing c10,000 tests per month from early October"
Just do the maths.