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Yes ‘imminently maybe?’ Oasis album isn’t it.
SL I’m really stumped as to how this will be played out. If they are keeping cards close to their chest as said so by the boss to go into negotiations. At what point are we likely to see the news released. The share price may not have any relevance whatsoever in a valuation of BR. CB has mentioned about maybe having to apologising for a low share price going into negotiations a while back, so that certainly suggests that the big news that will immediately impact the market cap will be held back. That’s what I can see for now, I know others are more hopeful of news.
Ha Ha Howezap, I appreciate your efforts but I think you may be underestimating the depth of our misery! We probably need some serious good news from CB to pull us out of it, not just the possible location of a drill site! Ho hum, perhaps some significant good news is (to coin one of Colin's words) 'imminent'.
Ok ok I’ll put you all out of your misery ;-) plenty of clues, it would have been earlier in phase 2 when the crews were likely to be more in sync and where holes would have been adjacent. Weather is a bit of a giveaway too, oz winter being June-august.
Confirmed by the tall spindly tree in particular and others next to in the background clearly visible from its shadowing on Google earth, that was a reference point in the ‘spot the drill last year. The view is looking west and the holes being drilled are from the pads that serviced holes 7&9 and 8&10.
Was actually quite an easy one.
Drills
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7617L_1-2022-5-17.pdf
While we wait…
On the next page in the year report (7) is a panoramic wintry shot showing both rigs. Bit more challenging, but I’m certain I have the location nailed. Won’t share just yet, but if there is anyone else with too much time on their hands or have the urge to work it out, good luck.
>>>Thankfully the prospective buyer will realise that todays POC is not critical .... but the POC in 2030s :)<<
Hi Andrew :-) I have been looking into future copper demand. As we know, It is reckoned that roughly 20% more will be needed by the end of the decade. Some aggregate figures that I have seen show year on year increase of projected demand to be even more than that. The shift in social acceptance is a serious driver toward a greener planet that will see a tipping point and will drive up demand dramatically in the same way that a social world that was defined by horses could not fully anticipate a world defined by automobiles, the increase in the near future of the world’s copper requirements may even exceed current optimistic forecasts. Agree, 2030 prices will be much inflated over all time highs for sure. There is a lot I don’t fully understand but this pull back in commodity prices fuelled by slow economic growth and the fallout from covid will be short to mid term, that is pretty much a given too.
Butler
It may take until September / October with results, before the market realises we are a Gold producer at Manica with FB, as CB seems to want to keep that quiet at the moment :)
Andrew - maybe the market realises that we are now a gold producer. Manica revenue, if it is what we lead to believe, would surely put a floor on the share price?
Bloodbath today in commodities. Surprised we are only 1% down with the big sells.
I guess some dont realise we will not be a producer until 10 years time and the POC then is what counts
Thankfully the prospective buyer will realise that todays POC is not critical .... but the POC in 2030s :)
Copper down 4% AA down 7% today. Maybe we can buy them?
I think it is perfectly reasonable and logical to believe that informal discussions with AA and others are in progress.
Knowing when to stop is the hallmark of a great artist... so when to stop?
The concern with stopping too soon is that we don't get fair value for Ascot, Footrot and other prospects yet to be even named! But here is where the 80/20 buy back clause could work to our advantage. AA, and any independent expert valuer, are likely to base their 80% value almost exclusively on the deposits with a JORC compliant resource estimate i.e. Racecourse. But that doesn't mean XTR has to do the same when it comes to valuing their remaining 20% stake. XTR can put its' own price tag on that and that can include a premium for deposits that are not measured but strongly indicate the buyer would be getting a Cadiaesque multi-porphyry system. Of course, we need to whet their appetite we some evidence of the potential, but that won't require a 'death by a thousand cuts' exploration programme.
I think we are close to stopping and I am even hopeful that XTR may have already begun informal discussions with AA.
AIMHO.
That location they are drilling in the photo could well be hole 52 for all we know.
Sometimes it’s not what CB actually says in interview, most of which is pre determined and specific, whatever his agenda maybe perceived as being. It’s the odd remarks here and there that give real insight into what they are trying to achieve. Such as the, “if we had found ascot first” comment which to me is a very significant comment in that it strongly indicates (to me anyway) that they will not be proving up Ascot and associated gold systems anymore that what was planned in building some kind of resource there etc. The same can be said of any further porphyry identified.
Or buy more !. I am loathe to do so but there are decent assets (we hope) underpinning current valuations and potentially a big cherry on top with Ascot etc.
>> Colin seems to have announced one strategy to the market via RNS and a definitive timescale in a public interview but he now seems to be following a completely different strategy and timescale. <<
Even though Xtract need to consider and model with a view to the potential and the eventual extraction, their exploration is more focussed on maximising resource potential from a marketing perspective than they would be toward the actual extraction and selling process. Do wonder how differently a major would have progressed with exploration and resource building and what project objectives they would be aiming for?
Just considering CB’s comment that, “if we had found Ascot first, things may have been different.”
To follow up on any anomalous targets identified from the latest geophys lines would be sensible practice and would support proof it is a multi porphyry system, I doubt any further porphyry will be investigated more than a borehole or two within the current project objectives.
Good correction Butlerman, suitably impressed I agree as from my guess the angle of the pylon in the photo would point slightly further south.
Does this not feel like the death of a thousand lashes that Colin himself claimed we would avoid? As PIs all we can do is strap in ( on? ) and wait.
>>Colin seems to have announced one strategy to the market via RNS and a definitive timescale in a public interview but he now seems to be following a completely different strategy and timescale.
Standard MO for Bird....
I guess it’s possible that this photograph is a few months old, and all but the fill-in holes and what Colin said about Footrot etc is just what is left to do now? I agree though, we are being kept in the dark - for whatever reason. My hope is that Colin is playing his cards close to his chest for a a very good reason.
But weren't they just (lol) putting a couple of more more holes in RC to fill in gaps in the model, and maybe a couple in Footrot plus maybe more definition of Ascot. Do we now have a hunt for a new porphyry as well or maybe even a complete tenement general porphyry hunt ? A bit like an Australiian 'Easter egg hunt' but for porphyries and not eggs? All without clarity to share holders about anything at all and actually worse Colin seems to have announced one strategy to the market via RNS and a definitive timescale in a public interview but he now seems to be following a completely different strategy and timescale. Time to come clean Colin.
Howezap - I think the location is : 33°51'48"S 149°42'37"E
With a view to the SE.
Several reasons for this. If you look closely at the picture, there is a hint of a structure, mid way across the picture, in front of the trees, above the white trailer. There is a corresponding structure near the little lake ( to the SE of this pin location, behind the power lines). Also note the lone (quite large) tree directly above the pickup truck. Again this can be seen from this pin location. The forests behind the power lines are also in the right relative locations.
So, slightly south of your suggested location, but nevertheless a considerable step out drill location from the published drill locations. I’m hoping this is good news, as a previous drill intersected a separate mineralisation at depth to the east of Ascot, which I’ve always considered to be evidence of another porphyry. ( I can’t recall which hole this was, but I noted at the time that is was strange to find new mineralisation at near the end of the hole, away from the area they were targeting). Them now drilling at a relatively shallow angle around the same location to the east could be an attempt to intersect this higher up and determine if there is indeed another porphyry. Could be excellent news.
On careful examination whilst I was seeing a bloke about a dog, here is my guess taking into account Butlerman suggestion it is further away. I’m fairly sure the pylon in the photo can only be the one to the right of my pin that goes through the two wooded areas. The view is looking east. Still quite a step out.
Dropped pin
https://goo.gl/maps/koEVqorJudp5JaMd6
Howezap if it helps this map from minview shows the power line in a light pink colour running north south to the south of Campbells River Road and then veering North East when it crosses the road
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GWzje8aJFxt-odcj8dUuyxXzy0tDX8XD/view?usp=sharing
That’s a fair shout, I would tend to agree about the perspective shift using a long focal length at distance. The Pylon is a lot further away but the cables as they traverse across toward the right of the picture are certainly a lot closer though.
That shot is a great pic, it was certainly selected for the impact of showing the high voltage supply crossing the tenement.
Howezap, Good sleuthing! I’d put it SW of your pin for two reasons. The camera tends to foreshorten distance, so I suspect the power line is further away than your pin. Also the area around the pad is clear from shrubs for some distance in all directions. There is a clear area SW of the pin that meets these observations.
The photo of the drilling crew on page 6 of the report is really intriguing. It clearly shows them very close to the power line that on Google maps satellite view, shows the lines run NE to SW down to Campbells River Road then turns south. The point being it’s a huge step out from any of the marked drills shown on the drill location map. It clearly not one of them. Maybe it’s testing the very southern extent of ascot or a separate anomoly. So where is it?
Round two of ‘spot the drill location with a dropped pin’
The pin I have dropped is on the road where the power lines cross the road, the terrain south is quite hilly as in the picture, to the north of the road takes it too far away. I’m at a loss to even have a guess.
Report
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Xtract-AR2021.pdf
Old geophys
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/8649O_3-2021-10-12.pdf
Drill map
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7617L_1-2022-5-17.pdf
Dropped pin
https://goo.gl/maps/PA8DVUNGEGxvhHzy5