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Hi Iceberg,
Any thoughts on Savannah resources news today? I bought in years ago at about 10p / share, I've waited and waited and losing patience but with wait even longer now.
Thanks Iceberg.
Nobody can be 100% certain. But I have always been would say 95% certain that there are other porphyry’s
I think if you took a very large compass , stuck it into the gap between ascot and racecourse and drew a circle with say a 3km radius. We would get a minimum of 4-5 porphyry’s.
It will take a bit of time to explore. The question is whether we will get that time? Will AA or somebody else wait for us to explore it?
Iceberg - I’m convinced that RC will be big enough to attract a reasonable (or good) offer - either from AA or another source, and it’s just a matter of time. We just don’t know the size of RC nor whether there are other porphyries, besides Ascot ( probably). I’d be interested to know if you have a similar view - and that it’s just a matter of both time and quantification of ‘what it is worth’ to a mining Co. So a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’! Your view would be much appreciated.
You have to say XTR were lucky and played a blinder.... considering how cheaply they picked up ProspectOre.... both in terms of money and shares issued.
Final point sorry for three posts in quick succession.
For xtr in the next 6-12 months it’s not about copper, but more about gold. Gold is giving us 95% of our profit and paying for everything.
We are a gold producer but a copper explorer. Gold now, copper in the future.
Which again is another stroke of luck :)
A read a few posts about when a deal might be done. In truth, my opinion is nobody has a scooby. Not even Colin.
Anglo could announce next week that they had started negotiations.
They might throw a low ball offer to Colin next month. Colin might get approached in August by the Chinese.
Equally nothing might happen until next year.
Trying to time and entry and exit on this kind of thing is impossible. It’s one of the reasons why bigger, more sophisticated investors tend to just buy in and wait, sometimes it might be quick, sometimes not, but with this strategy you don’t lose out. You don’t get caught on the hop by news and end up paying 50% more.
Just to add, understanding of porphyry’s, particularly alternation zones; has really developed even in the last 5-10 years since AA last had a look.
They also did mainly RC drilling which is cheaper, but you miss out on a lot of info such as intrusion directions and layering.
They also drilled to a shallower depth.
Finally Anglo obviously quite liked what they had found there. They had a decent team and (for them) did a lot of drilling.
My guess is that they weighed it up, but didn’t quite find enough at the then time to do further exploration. At the time copper was very unwanted.
Again just imo.
But the directors refused to sign off on the 10-30m that more exploration would have taken, the majors were going through a down size at the time, limiting debt, reducing leverage. They would have been cutting everything that wasn’t a ‘core’ project.
For xtr they were lucky. But to come along, pick it up, do more drillling than Anglo ever did, find the deeper mineralisation, increase the extents, delineate ascot, perform deeper geophysics- it was more skill based.
Whatever xtr finds - Anglo will reassess, and decide whether a copper resource like this will fit into there portfolio.
>>>One question I have about AA and BR. Why is it that XTR may have found something that AA 'missed'? <<
Matt..
Don’t think they necessarily missed anything, they improved on the historical drilling by concentrating on establishing a resource. They did not step out to delineate the body and drilled quite shallow too. We were told they missed the mineralisation at Footrot when they drilled that, wrongly targeting the strongest indicator from their IP survey.
IP is hit and miss it doesn’t show mineralisation, the success xtract are having, in simple terms is understanding the IP relative to the mineralisation from the existing main resource to compare and guide new targeting using a drone mounted EM survey to overlay xtract new tighter IP that has been done to look for subtle differences in the signatures that give better results. I believe is a relatively new technique.
As has been suggested too by CB, majors do not have exploration arms anymore, they buy success and so let a junior take all the early risk in proving up the resource potential, de risking the project before in this case, buying back into it hopefully!!! They would have had a good idea that further porphyry were there I’m sure. The historical IP that I posted on the spot the drill was completed by Anglo back when they had the tenement. Generally if one porphyry in a cluster is mineralised they usually all are.
As AA previously owned BR, I would hope their due diligence won't take too long and possibly be happening off record already. But copper and metals are on a downward trend. I expect at least a short term bounce but going forward this article shows the risks https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1634224/china-economy-news-crash-deflation-recession-world-threat-vn
Maintaining a strong cash balance will be critical in such an environment. This will only be achieved by gold revenues, principally Fair Bride next year and beyond. Scratch marginal mining operations and new "game changer" exploration projects in the current economic environment ?????. Even the big boys like Glencore were dumping assets in 2009, markets can be cruel.