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Despite one or two of my comments on here being perceived as negative, basically just pointing out that there is still work to be done, the lowest I will sell is 18p based on Iceberg's low-ball calculation from some time ago, so kind of all or nothing for me. But if we start seeing sustained strong data coming out of Ascot that 18p will be revised up accordingly. This is a very exciting share. I think if we can get the SP up to 10p with news getting us nearer to the 2mt I think the momentum could take on a life of its own.
That MacDonalds instead of Salt- bae line from CB made me laugh.
As indeeed did the ''I hope we don’t end up selling the Ford Fiesta for fair market value, but throwing in a Lexus as the sweetener'' from Andrew4444 !
But then I looked up the Ford range for sale in UK and saw a cheapest to dearest list along the lines of : Fiesta, Ecosport, Puma, Focus, Kuga, Mondeo, Galaxy, Mustang and GT.
So I propose Mr Colin Bird goes with Ivy Brasserie and Andrew goes with Mondeo in quips around Racecourse sale value the next time please! :-)
OK I will bite. I suspect that a fair few of us who have been here a very long time - drilling in the North Sea and finding nothing - may well sell a good percentage at 10p (and maybe even a smaller percentage at 6p!) I would like to think I would hold on for north of 50p - but I wasn't a pensioner when I brought my first batch - and I fear I may be beyond spending it if I wait for north of 20p.
And I think it's the future price all our minds are turning to - when I bought into this (just before the first spike to 9p) there was talk of us reaching 80p+, with the placings / dilutions sentiment seems to now think 60p+ is beyond the realms of possible. Who wants to (in a non-rampy way!) take a guess what we'll be looking at when we sell / mine.
The Sunday Roast Chaps were suggesting CB take them to Salt-Bae on buy-out. CB suggested Macci's
Once negotiations commence, every hole that goes into Ascot will only strengthen Colin's hand. AA will know this.
Delaying the announcement that we have 2mT is confirming in my mind we have more. I have no idea what price Colin will get for us, but I am increasingly confident that it will be well north of 20p. It wouldn't surprise me anymore if it were double that. Copper price is only going one way... the size of our copper resource is only going one way.... African revenue is only going one way. The only problem we will have is delaying returning AA's calls.... and deciding which restaurant it should be :-)
It's not mixed messages the way I see it, Assay's for the open pit and the open pit model will be complete by April. This starts the ball roiling with AA why they continue to drill at Ascot. As he's stated the 'science' in terms of geo-phys has no doubt helped the geo's drill locations and will be part of the evidence to show there is good potential asset in Ascot.
The disparity between How XTR and AA will value this will be thrashed out in the board room.
Slightly mixed messages from CB about Ascot and timescales, I think. On the one hand the latest assays have led him to plan more drilling at Ascot and some more geophys. over the filler region between Ascot and RC; on the other hand he insists you don't need to do loads of drilling, nor do the majors need a measured resource. And he stated that April/May is his target timescale. Yes he did say that exciting results might cause them to rethink, but as it stands Colin isn't planning to do too much. I'm just struggling to see how they can get a sense of the size of Ascot with just a few holes, not to mention what will happen if the magnetic/chargeability surveys are as bright as the ones done at RC and Ascot (and why they weren't done before with the others I don't know).
I think it could go either way. Colin has indicated two different scenarios over two days. Maybe it's to keep AA and other buyers on their toes.
"When I read the RNS yesterday I was very happy, but also think this may put a spoke in the plans for a quick sell"
Yes it will.
But that circa 6 months delay and more ascot drilling, should see, at least, an additional 15p on the buy-out offer. So worth the wait (imo anyway)
On balance, I may be more inclined to go for Plan A, the quick sale, if it wasnt for the substantial increase in African income coming very soon.
The Ascot hole 35 is a really great result. It definitely does warrant putting more holes into that area to demonstrate to a purchaser the scale and quality of the discovery.
The good news is that we have strong revenue from Africa incoming which gives us a s trong cash and thereby negotiating position with a large miner.
We have to mind the Gap and have agood look at the bit between RC and Ascot - drilling 20 or so more holes in this region and Ascot might take 2 or 3 months plus assays, which would coincide nicely with a potential negotiation starting with "put up or shut up" to AA by June 2022.
If the results in Ascot etc are truly stonking I'm sure no one will mind that timescale slipping a little, more will be paid, and if Africa revenue is anything like expected no raise will be needed.
all looking very very good
When I read the RNS yesterday I was very happy, but also think this may put a spoke in the plans for a quick sell.
If Ascot has higher grades, and is nearer surface, a mining co would always want to get the higher grade resource into production first - as this gives much quicker payback of the Capex.
So any big miner looking to buy this will want to know more about Acsot, in terms of size of resource and grades.
I think we'll see much more holes going into Ascot.
There was no bad news - these holes are not too deep and the appear to be drilling quickly and under budget.
Great result from hole 35 at Ascot, with plenty more drilling and assay news to come. As iceberg mentioned, the evidence of multi-generational magmatic events is in, and with each event a different phase of mineralization occurs. Looking to the upside, we may have several porphyrys on our acreage. A couple more wildcat drills may be required, but the saddle between RC and Ascot is the obvious next target, and could expand our open pit.
Gargle blasters all round.
I do not understand all the poker terms, but what I do get is that this is just getting bigger and bigger. Fair play to CB if he had an inkling of this, and decided to go long and have a walkabout with the drill rig.
Will offers start to come in if the big boys suspect as we do that it is a real biggy, and try to get it on the cheap? Collosus rather than biggy? It is certainly looking that way. Keep on drilling team extract.
Actually, its more like 6-card Omaha with a 20-card straight draw and two flush draws. Only the people who don't really understand the game and are waiting for a made hand are sitting with money left in front of them.
If this is the flop and we have a possible straight and a possible flush, then all the money is going in :)
Not for me. We have a full house on the flop,flat calling the turn and all in on the river.
Colin Bird, XTR Chairman, Vox Market Interview [Zak]:
"ASCOT IS A DISCOVERY, confirm.
Close/er to feeder system.
Closer to source.
Mineralisation different.
Classic gold copper porphyry.
DISTRICT.
Survey 1.5m : Racecourse > Ascot [Not displacement?]
In a DISTRICT TYPE mineralisation.
Money shown.2
SP: 5.18p, Mkt Cap £40m+
Wed, 19 Jan 2022.
i understand much better now why the mv is 40m and not 100m or more, in poker parlance we have a possible flush and now a possible straight both needing another make up card , probably two in the case of Ascot. We do not have three of a kind looking to make a full house. I'm fine with that risk but let's call it how it is.
“It’s a big Un” I think would prefer ascot was proved up more before even considering triggering sale process starting to look like this is bigger than racecourse , even if means that need to do placing to fund
Hole 38 must be long finished. Assuming it was drilled in a similar direction to hole 35 but a couple of hundred metres south, then it could be the first step towards proving the theory that as we go further south the copper mineralisation intersections thicken at Ascot, move closer to surface and grades improve. If that is the case, then releasing drill hole info for hole 38 (perhaps with some nice photos of drill cores) just after we've had those good assays results for hole 35 would make it really significant news.
I note that in CB's interview this afternoon he said there 'is a good chance the mineralisation is moving towards surface' but I bet he's already had the initial report for hole 38 and know full well that it is! Could the reason for the rather strange late release of this afternoon's RNS be that there will be more news in the morning? I've not got an RNS prediction right yet but...
I know that the xtr geos have talked about saddles etc and Colin hinted that the pivot point of the system could be between ascot and RC (at least I think this is what they are saying).
But as he mentioned this is a different porphyry, it supports the idea of a potentially older escape channel from the sub suction zone.
It could be that RC buts up against it from the south, it might be really interesting to see that.
Hopefully we get some visuals from the other holes post 35.. :)
@theiceberg
We appreciate your insight, technical knowledge, and views.
I think folks that wanted a "quick" conclusion here may need to wait a while longer because the potential of a "district" find is compelling to the team at Extract.
I did message some while back that i wondered if this was a connected system and even a very very large open pit....
OMG can you imagine the scale of it !!
ATB Shorn
Iceberg, you’re an absolute legend and have called it right so many times, massive thank you.
‘300-400m at .8 to 1.0 CuEq’
I’ll join the Xtract team down at Mc D’s and buy you a Big Mac after the next AGM if that comes in.
Its a shame that it has been released this late, i hear from the interview he says its because of timezones , however just keep it for an hr and release it tomorrow, it wont effect anything and gets alot more attention.
Comparing the two interviews, the previous one where he talked about a quick sell, i had a lot of issue with tbh.
This company interview, is much better.
My final moan is that i also wish he had released ascot (hole 35) as a separate RNS. They are different, i have said this previously but i also appreciate its upto him.
Anyway: Bushranger we always thought it tapered out where 18-22 are. (when i did a rough model last year i had barely any tonnage up there). Still good lengths and all adding to the open pit as its above cut off, its also adding to the tonnage. It's looking more like 600-700m at .3 Cueq, rather than 500m at .4.
Moving to Ascot. Bang as expected and hoped, which was incredibly high! I think my blog diagram was not too far off from the geo cross section, importantly we've got good copper, some gold (probably a 10 on the dice roll) and it starts near surface. The gold is probably commercial (unlike Racecourse). Also some signs that the grading is better a bit further down.
This is important, as I've been banging on this will , IMO, improve as the system goes south and rises. So that better grading gets bigger and closer to the surface (much like RC). I wouldn't be surprised to get holes of 300-400m at .8 to 1.0 CuEq maybe half a km to one km further south.
We need to explore Ascot, Yes RC is still massively attractive and worth far more than the current MCAP, but we need to show that Ascot is 2km or so in length and more importantly that the core of Ascot is not only profitable and commercial but highly desirable.
By all means sound out AA and enter an Exc Agreement, but please please lets continue to put more holes into Ascot while we do the model and MRE for RC.