London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Steve - I think AA is Sauron, Prospectore is Gollum and XTR is Frodo. CB is definitely Gandalf!
SL - 6p in an insanely low price. The market will realise very soon.
Just read today's posts . All very interesting, but let's not forget just yet that the SP is still under 6p! Although I hope not for much longer.
>> like Frodo and the ring!
So if XTR is Frodo, does that mean that Anglo-American is Gollum? (and Colin is a less hirsute Gandalf)
Dibs - I think it is safe to say that if the geophysics we currently have had been available to either XTR or AA before they began their drilling programmes, neither company would have started within what is currently the conceptual open pit area. If XTR are indeed on the cusp of proving there is 2+mt of contain Cu Eq within the conceptual open pit area - the weaker area according to the geophysics - then we should be very optimistic this is going to be a serious world class discovery.
How lucky did we get when AA missed (what looks like) the high grade stuff and Bushranger fell off their list of priority targets? And how lucky again that the grades they did hit were enough to tweak the interest of a passing junior who picked it up and sold it on to XTR? It is as if destiny has brought it into our hands... like Frodo and the ring! So here we are, staring at what looks certain to be a Ring of Power and wondering... could it actually be the One Ring?!?
Tune in next week to find out folks!
And we must keep in mind that Colin and his teams experience and knowledge of this area is growing on a daily basis. By Colins admission Hole 1 was something of a stab in the dark but, in his words, they ‘got lucky’. Since then they’ve increasingly been making their own luck. I think we’ve had one dud (hole 4) if you can call it that - they collared the hole and changed orientation. Other than that every hole has delivered mineralisation to one degree or another.
I strongly believe we haven’t yet seen the highest grades. I think they’re to come as they have shown great accuracy thus far in their drill location selections.
Exciting times without a doubt and much more to come. No hanging around for months waiting for snippets of news here. If you want positive news flow this is the place to be. And I don’t care if I get accused of ramping.
Stevemocal - well the simple answer is we don’t know for sure until we get the drill results and assays. That said, the evidence is mounting in favour of the 6mt range rather than 2mt which now appears to be the very bare minimum we can expect. I suspect that we will be looking at 2mt in the rear mirror by the new year latest.
6mt would make Racecourse a truly world class deposit in a superb location in a great jurisdiction. I think all the majors are going to be clamouring for it. Newcrest for sure. Why wouldn’t they? Maybe that’s a more pertinent question.
I think Colin is going make sure AA don’t pick this up on the cheap. He’s a wily Old Bird. ;)
From the RNS date 2nd Sept. 2021:
"Hole BRDD-21-014 was sited to the southeast beyond the limit of the current Racecourse Inferred Mineral Resource and the conceptual open pit area to test a new MIMDAS IP target not investigated by previous drilling at Racecourse. The hole was drilled at -55 degrees towards the northeast and reached a final depth of 816.5m. It intersected what appears to be a new segment of the Bushranger porphyry complex, with significant widths of pyrrhotite-pyrite mineralisation and associated copper sulphides.
Preliminary results received for a drone-mounted airborne magnetic survey in the area suggest that the hole may have cut the margin of the new zone and the final processed magnetic data will be utilised to assist with planning further holes, in tandem with full log and assay data from BRDD-21-014."
So we already have some 'ground truth' supporting the geophysics, which shows two large anomalies to the SE, approximately 50% bigger than what sits within the conceptual open pit. In addition to being bigger, there is lower resistivity in the SE anomalies than anything we see within the conceptual open pit - strong evidence of higher copper grades. So, if there is 2mt of contain Cu Eq within the conceptual open pit, the evidence would seem to suggest 4mt is a reasonable estimate of what's within the SE anomalies. With Footrot still to be factored in.
I know it seems too good to be true but isn't this what the evidence suggests i.e. a total Cu Eq resource that is closer to 6mt than 2mt? What else would cause the high chargeability and low resistivity readings? How likely is it that the low resistivity is caused by anything other than copper ore given what has already been discovered at Racecourse and what was seen in cores from drill hole 14? Genuine questions... how likely are those SE anomalies to be jaffas?
Worth questioning whether POC used in any calculation of value would be mitigated by the spiking energy costs used to transform the metal from its ore to final sellable product ie a portion of the final POC is attributable to efforts downstream of what Xtr would be selling.
I have no idea how this would be accounted for if at all
Yes, they should declare a 1.9m ton interim JORC and continue exploring :)
A methodical approach to increasing the resource has been my thought on how they might progress. Would hope for incremental JORC revisions as resource increases. It would certainly help share price stability and investor confidence.
Does not put a valuation on the asset but will give a foundation to base investment on for new investors entering at higher levels.
Thanks for the heads-up howezap on the ADVFN post.
I've seen some people questioning why the southern anomalies were not drilled earlier but I think CB has thought this through. The current plan is to prove the pit area before moving to new ground. If a scatter gun approach had been used we could end up with a vague idea of what's at BR but nothing that can be translated into a JORC. The current plan allows the company to move forward from a solid base.
I keep reading of a POC sub $9K being used in the calculation re buy-out. I'm all for being conservative and realistic, but wont the POC be estimated, by the independent experts, against future estimated value over next 10 or 15 years?
If so, and because of what we know re future copper demand v supply, the EV revolution and the copper usage in cleaner and greener world, wont independent analysis think POC will be higher over the next 10+ years not lower? How could a case be made for it to be lower?
I may be wrong, but I would think using current $10K POC as an estimate as future POC would be ultra conservative. Using a lower POC than now would seem, imo, simply wrong.
Cyberiachas. Always prudent to be conservative in estimates so as not to be accused of being rampy. I feel there is so much more scope the parameters can be increased by, to realistic, although not being overly optimistic values.
The economic cut off could eventually be lower than .15 on final evaluation. The resource maybe 4mt-6mt considering the size of the south east anomaly, along with the parallel zone, footrot etc. The projected long term price of copper could be way off at 7-8000k. Once 2023 hits, are we likely to ever see copper prices fall below 9 or 10k again? The remaining value of the percentage paid of the asset may be 4-5% considering, all aspects of which value is based on, are probably at very top end of each scale. Lastly let’s not forget if an decent sized IOCG occurrence is identified at Eureka. CB is certainly confident going by his comments on ‘an evening with.’ Dips at 45 degrees with copper values of plus 5% which are unlike a normal copper system and point to IOCG. What would that add to market cap alone in 18 months time! Not forgetting full forecasted revenue streams incoming by end of ‘22.
Anyone dare do the math, and post a possible, but still realistic share price prediction. That really would be a positive forecast for the weekend.
Go on you know you want to, give us all something to dream of before a 7am monday news bomb.
Cygnus- Good post on ADVFN -23/10/21@10:27 worth consideration to answer your question??
Can anybody enlighten me with the location of the hole currently being drilled? Will this be the first hitting the southern anomaly (East)? If so, I think will be the most critical hole since BRDD-20-001 when the size of this thing started becoming apparent. Should the core looks good BR will in all likelihood move from being a good 2Mt (sp ~ 25p) to double that (CB said that the geology looks better than the existing proposed pit). It also suggests that the southern anomaly (West) is likely to be of a similar geological nature to the East feature (lets triple the sp?). So, for my money, that first anomaly hole is the biggy. Again, is the next hole in the southern anomaly?
I agree with your observation on the edits.
I've just had a listen to the CB presentation video (having attended in person on the night).
Please someone correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like the " we definitely, definitely, definitely have 2mt " comments have been edited out. So thats defintely a favour for current shareholders from CB.
Watching again I would say that CB appears certain about 2mt, confident of 3mt plus- so there is a chance of 4mt plus if the SE extensions show up . This is a World Class Deposit with the Open Pit alone, according to CB.
So someone said how about a positive forecast for the weekend:
Lets go with a 3.2mt outcome - @ $7500 copper price (pretty conservative) @ 2.5% valuation percentage (given location and stripping ratio etc thats pretty conservative I think)
Thats $600m @ 1.37 = £438m for Bushranger alone
over 1bn shares = 43p per share for Buhranger alone
there is potential large upside in Africa but lets say 4p for all of that -
46p share price
5.9p today
7.8 x today's share price
(changing a couple of parameters: 4mt @ $8k copper @ 3% valuation gives a £700m GBP valuation and 70p + 4p per share price or 12.5 bagger)
Hope everyone has a restful weekend