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Thank you flipper. Just read thru it.
Philtered - I suggest you read the link that Steve kindly just posted.
It was all going so smoothly until xtract started poking their noses into other areas around BR. As soon as they poked ascot what was already a complicated enough asset to value became an impossible asset to value. A great problem to have and shows what continued drilling can bring. Trouble is short term ascot has not done anything for the share price. And won't do anything for the share price unless a sale is made. It might move the share price a little while its been investigated further which could take 12 months at least. Then we prod another hole somewhere else and find another porphyry that will need to be explored fully. That another 12 to 18 months. Then so on and so on. The share price might not move thru all this. We could be having this conversation in 10 years with 7 porphyries under our belt. With still more to investigate. Share price still in the 4-7p region. At some point xtract has to make a decision either way. When is the right time to show your hand.
I think we now both agree.
Messages that we want a quick sale and that XTR are going to continue drilling and that something is happening behind the scenes.
Same page !
I couldn't agree with you more Cygnus. It would be shocking to find out that they found so much more a few years down the line. That is the choice Colin is making for us.
Without the communication from CB it starts to play tricks on your mind. He has said he wants a quick sale, and has also said he is going to continue drilling. Now he is saying nothing. Something is definitely happening behind the scenes, good hopefully or if not good, I would settle for really good
I accept there is a conflict. Everybody wants a quick sale as it then becomes 'money in the bank'. But we also don't want to leave anything on the table!
What if we watch over the coming years and find that AA discover - for instance, 3 additional porphyries to the 2 we already know about? We'll all be muttering, "if only, if only".
A long time ago I suggested a rather naïve idea that the best outcome would be to sell RC and for AA to allow XTR to continue exploration of the surrounding area. Yes, I don't know how that would come to pass either but it would be nice: even if we didn't get full dollar for anything we found.
This is the frustration stage and all we can do is sit it out.
It's this 'will AA or wont they' stage that casues
Cygnus. Sorry didn't explain myself at all well there. Colin has always said he wants a quickish sale. He has repeated that several times. So if he can prove he has alot more than 2mt and can show potential for even more I'm pretty certain he would have let interested parties know. At that point the buyer would offer over fair value for what xtr can prove, simply because of potential for more. The part where Colin has always said he wants a quickish sale is the reason I think probably wrongly they won't continue exploring more. AA will want to pay as little as possible because what's in the ground is in the ground. They will find it. The initial outlay for AA will be the important bit for them. Once 2mt is found that is the easier bit to agree on. How can you price the potential. If Colin wants a quick sale and can prove he has Xyz+ potential extras. AA want xyz fair value plus potential extras as cheap as possible.
Colin wants a quick sale, but a good deal for shareholders. AA want to pay as little as possible. Neither will want to drag it out to much before they come to an agreement or not imo.
Aeris - The XTR team obviously think continued drilling will add more value, or what would the purpose of continuing to do it? It ain't cheap.
I agree that the radio silence is positive. it is in line with Colin's target timetable.
I disagree about the potential benefits of more drilling though. Assuming that they now have the tonnage and grades (as Colin has stated) then the economics of an expanded open pit should be very favourable. Once that is generating profits and capex paid for, it will in turn give scope for a deeper mine to extract the deeper ore. And pay for further drilling to prove just how much is at Ascot, Footrot and other porphyries that a purchaser discovers along the way. There is still drilling going on at Cadia after all.
Bushranger will go on for decades. Xtract has done enough to prove multiple porphyies and be able to negotiate a sale price that reflects that potential. A purchaser with deeper pockets may decide to press on with drilling other areas rather than waiting for the open pit to be generating revenues.
I see the radio silence as a positive thing. It is exactly what I would expect if CB is in discussion with AA. I think I'm right in saying that this is probably the only situation where relevant information can be held back from the market and there is a lot of news to be published.
If bad news was in the pipeline then that would not stop CB from publishing drill sites, the IP survey results for instance.
Sorry mate but don't understand the following sentences that you penned.
"That way stopping drilling early makes perfect sense to me. The buyer will be willing to pay more than fair value at that point imo. Because the more xtract find the price will go up and up and no buyer will want that."
The price that AA pays may go up but then mining is their business and the more Cu the more they can eventually profit from it. I accept they would prefer to buy the resource and then find the other local porphyries themselves but until they buy it's down to XTR to find as much Cu as possible. This is why I have always been keep for XTR to continue drilling as long as it takes as long as it's financed by African profits - although it would be nice if the sp mirrored the additional value in the company to some degree, which does not seems to be the case at the moment.
Or perhaps I'm miss reading the situation completely ( which certainly wouldn't be the first time) and Zac Mir had got the wrong end of the stick. Just very strange for the xtract radio silence to be happening at exactly the same time as when Colin said share holders would be receiving a cheque and Zac mir said drilling would be stopping.
Aeris. I totally agree. It makes perfect sense to have a full picture for both parties to get fair value. The only side that can benefit from a early stoppage of drilling is AA if 2mt has been found. They will be paying fair value for 2mt. Its quite obvious 2mt doesn't come close to the full capacity of the licence. You wouldn't sell your car and give away your house as part of the deal. Im hoping Colin has something up his sleave, and he can prove to the potential buyer that we have a lot more than 2mt. That way stopping drilling early makes perfect sense to me. The buyer will be willing to pay more than fair value at that point imo. Because the more xtract find the price will go up and up and no buyer will want that.
Thank you - I don’t always follow Zak’s daily chats so had missed that. My sense is that Zak has a very close handle on Xtract as well as gleaning a lot of information from Colin. Back in December it was Zak who was drawing attention to the fact that Xtract would never announce when it had 2MT. I know that there are different opinions, but to me the statement from Colin that they had the information to rework the conceptual open pit is the closest that they could get. Particularly as it is not yet closed off to the South.
Aeris. Zak mir said on his show in discussing xtract that drilling would finish in May come what may. (May22, may 23, not sure) . He said CB had told him in a conversation. He said I know when drilling stops. It stops in May. He was so definite in what he said I believed him, he was talking to Phil and Kevin if I remember rightly. But I don't remember him saying anything about stopping due to the 2mt reached. I will dig the conversation out when I get a chance. I thought Zac risked a lot by saying what he did. He could easily be seen as leading investors up the garden path if it turns out he was being untruthful. To say such a thing he must have really positive that was the case. Perhaps since CB has told him differently and zac has passed that on on his show. But I have not heard that at all. I have never actually heard CB say drilling stops in May though.
Andrew, just for balance in debate, I would say reporting of facts in RNS is one thing, whereas comments regarding an intent to do something, in an RNS is a little different. It would be a forward looking staterement and be price sensitive if he said “further drilling will give us the 2mtCuEq” but it would not be considered price sensitive, when he states “we will be further testing to extend strike etc. that would just be a non factual statement going forward would it not? Hence why they are normally under colins comments, they can be subject to change with re evaluation or if circumstances change later. In any case, any later RNS subject relative, would then supersede the former RNS. Example being, we will be testing southeast to then state later, the system has shown to now swing south, we will now be testing south.
Andrew - I am confused about the reference to stopping drilling when the 2MT is hit. Would you mind clarifying where that comes from for me
Must be remembered from early 2021, Colins, other statement, that "No news is good news", followed soon after by an RNS stating the drill rig had a problem.
He has also made mention a few times of needing to pause and take stock.
News of comissioning at Fairbride would be very welcome to tide us over, I believe that should be a cut and dried case and due any time now.
It's definitely the longest spell of silence from CB for a long time. Is is such a great investment opportunity but I will be trying hard not to buy more this week after hitting my target this last week. Profits from wishbone are sat ready to go somewhere. Veru, panr or xtr. Certainly not enough for all 3 unfortunately.
If we do permanently stop all drilling at RC when we have hit 2mt then what has unequivocally been stated in the RNS, 2 months ago, is completely inaccurate.
I accept CB can at times "shoot from the hip" and be a tad overly optimistic in his interviews - so we should take some of what he says in interviews with a pinch of salt - but it would be a bit worrying imho if we should have to do the same with what is stated in an RNS.
Veracity of CB interview V RNS
I guess we'll fine out which one is more accurate very soon.
Colin Bird has repeatedly stated in podcasts that Bushranger is far too big for Xtract and that everything is being done to prepare to offer the opportunity for sale. However - this position has never been stated in a written statement to the stock market. The RNS statements cannot assume a sale will be agreed so have to assume that Xtract continues with Bushranger itself.
Hence the discrepancy between planned drilling / modelling etc in RNS as compared to the often repeated oral statement that Colin will not miss his target deadline for having the opportunity ready to offer for sale.
As you say Howezap - a fantastic investment opportunity. Watch this space …..
You are welcome Philtered1, Xtract are in a very unique position with the legally binding buy back agreement that was inherited with acquisition of the licenses. Obviously we would not be here without it! But if it was not in place, Bushranger would have probably been sold alteady. So, as inhibiting as it has been to only have one buyer with first refusal, imo it has allowed the project to advance to where it sits now with those clear targets following 30k+ metres of drilling from this small cap.
Incredible investment opportunity.
Excellent points Howezap thank you.
I'm involved in a stock I don't totally understand. That is why I have done my best to bring my cost average down. I am learning though from the knowledge presented to me by the top class posters on this board.
We all seem to be stuck in this blinkered view that racecourse including full explanation of the southern extension will be completed to then be able to complete the resource model, rework the Pit model and finally the studies that would support the decision to mine. Also we have the hope that Ascot will be proven up across the whole of the intrusion. The intent is all supported by comments in Various RNS’s, such as further drilling will be carried out, more met test work at ascot, further drilling to test strike etc of the gold intersections, applications for more drill pads and new geophys to assist drilling that has spanned both porphyries. So, why would they state, and or do these if not to carry it out.
It would be simply good engineering and geological practice to progress exploration this way, they are “putting a data pack together to a standard that any major would be happy with,” that the new owners would be satisfied they could proceed where Xtract have left off.
The other comment in twelve stocks, we don’t know if it will be 2mt and decision to mine, 2mt on its own or a decision to mine makes complete sense If you free your mind to the idea that they WILL stop when 2mt has been reached.
Everything then falls into place and explains the “stop with whatever we have got” comment. If Anglo turn it down, then who knows, but Colin wants this sold and my god has he been trying to tell us all along, so maybe keep an open mind.
Listen back over the many interviews since the New Year, probably the most telling in regards to the buyback, is the 12 stocks for Christmas with Phil and Kevin. CB says, “When you look at the 2 million ton threshold, the sooner we get there the better.”
Listening on, its quite clear to me that if 2mt is reached before conceptual pit is completed of which the pit is doubtful, then that is what will be put forward.
This one is well worth a listen back, listen carefully. There is one stand out comment that may suggest that there is some validity in the idea that not only, that drilling WILL stop when one of, or both of the points that trigger the buy back are reached, and will NOT continue after, if Anglo want it. From 19mins CB says, “it will be good for us when Anglo make up their mind wether THEY want to PROCEED with this project,”
Question is, has 2mt been modelled yet? As the decision to mine is very likely out the equation.
It’s not a bloody colander,
Not the death of a thousand lashes, were not gonna prove it
I’m not gonna miss my target.
I want to see RC and Ascot proved up to their full potential as would the geologists that are managing the project if it were their decision. But it’s not, Colin Bird is a very astute businessman first and foremost, let’s not forget that!