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Sorry, should have said conceptual study (below is the RNS).
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-conceptual-open-pit-mining-study-c05hq78ws9qagfq.html
Hi james
Sorry I should have been clearer.
I'm looking at a higher POC than currently , hence the 2025 time horizon when POC should be well over $10K.
I'm not saying 3p at todays POC.
Hi Jamies, can you direct me to that conceptual model, was it in an RNS at that time?
Hi Andrew
I agree that BR must be worth something, however the conceptual model that was released in 2021 wasnāt a million miles from what we have as a high grade core eg it was 162m tonnes at around 0.33% (assuming Iāve not made a mistake with my calcs). This only worked at 5/lb and it didnt really work as it was a low discount rate (No buyer/valuer would use 8%) and was before tax. So itās hard to see how just using the high grade stuff is going to prove a viable project at todays prices and capital costs etc.
Clearly there is still a value to it (in my opinion) still exploration opportunities, if copper goes to the moon itās worth a bunch, technological advances (different ore sorting etc) etc etc.
Iām normally more optimistic than you (Manica income) and youāre normally more correct than me (Manica income) so Iām hoping the latter continues with your āoptimisticā BR numbers.
Cheers
James
That's me out at 1.42p. Bird's 30k pay rise while shareholders were watching their money disappear was the final straw.
I hope remaining shareholders do well.
A more pessimistic view would be to just ignore all the low grade at BR and just assume only the high grade is of any value (I'm not saying that's true but I'm being pessimistic).
This high grade doesnt need ore sorting
192mt at 0.33%cuEq = 0.63m
At very low assumptions of $6K POC used in a buyers calc (it was $7700k POC used for cadia assumptions ) and just 1% inground value, that would work out at $38M value. That's about 3.4p at current 856M shares in issue.
Call it 3p to be even more cautious
FB must be worth 2p min when market actual sees the income results in RNS.
The final return here will not be anything like what CB said and "just" 3 years late (assuming buy-out 2025) !! - but I would not be selling at this price for the above reasons.
To avoid any misunderstanding, I'm not saying that everyone will be making money here as I am aware that 5p is broadly many people's average here- but explaining why I would not be selling at this price.
AIMHO
DYOR
Market makers in no rush to take on stock.
Fill or kill for just 100k at 1.5p rejected.
There is 755,000 measured and indicated resource open pit at manica, gross value $1.48 billion
plus the underground resource estimate of a further 472,000 ounces, gross value $920million
plus the additional extensions for further exploration
all per march 2023 company presentation on the xtr website
a lot to go after and we own the lot
Needs to tell is how much is in bank now really, should have asked I guess.
I believe the figure CB mentioned at the meeting was 500k and also a 1m ? Not sure if that was Ā£ or $
I agree that it would seem strange to need a raise for that amount with the FB income coming in. May be thats why CB did not say we would definitely need to raise .
Need to look back at original agreement with MMP, must say I thought it was only for 230k Oz via open pit?
Very much agreed cyberiachas
A 5% or 10% raise at a valuation of say Ā£20m doesn't seem to make a lot of sense if we are generating say Ā£4million net from manica p/a.
I'm happy for a chunk of that profit to be reinvested in Manica to maximise what is a really substantial gold deposit.
The focus should be on making the most of this asset, getting clarity on the net income and judicious investment of the profits.
I'm personally pleased that spending on BR will be limited to building out the model for the time being. Revisit when copper is consistently over $10K and at least we shouldn't be a forced seller with good gold income.
If that question was directed at me fosters .. the answer to your question is: NO I'm not saying that ..
(I'm saying the current market price for an xtr share says that the current market valuation of Bushranger is zero or minus, in my mind at least... but the market price for xtr shares changes all the time.. and peoples interpretation of what the breakdown of the s/p is across the assets of the company varies too.. )
PS: as reported in feedback from the AGM.. xtr will get its already agreed share of future sulphides processing revenues at manica whatever, as long as that processing capability is built out .. it can increase that share by adding some money into the kitty for the build out the sulphides processing capability there..
"From what was said by people who were at the AGM, Colin emphasised the need for a further placing to pay for blue sky projects ?."
He didnt say we would definitely need a placing to fund the purchase of any other projects.
He said that he thought we could fund the purchase from income but if something too good to turn down was available we may need to part fund that with a placing. That was my understanding.
I really hope he doesnt go for any new projects but if / when he does the amount of funding will be small beer and that's assuming we cant fund from income. (which is possible)
CB will no doubt be driving up the sp before any placing (If required) or just after good news has been announced so I suspect it will be done above 2p and for circa 5% to 10% .
Thats assuming we do have a placing and that was not stated as definite at the meeting.
How long is a piece of string Flipper ?
(eg it depends where the s/p was at ahead of any such placing .. and the size of the placing.. and the whetedness of the market appetite to patriciate versus the opportunity that CB has identified... etc)
If I were CB I'd take plenty of months scoping any blue sky project opportunities as :
1) it allows time for the bank account balance to ongoingly grow out nicely
2) it'll allows time the true value of Manica to xtr drop in peoples heads
3) it allows the flexibility to get a good deal on the future Manica sulphides mining etc.. eg we have money sitting there in a bank account, some of which is readily available to invest in that sulphide plant build out... IF a v good share of future sulphides revenue return is offered to xtr... etc..
4) it allows time for POC to rise .. which will cast Bushrangers value in a much better light.. which should help the s/p decently
5) it would minimize the size of a raise and the discount from whatever current s/p for a raise
etc
So are you all saying BR is dead, and has no worth?
NtM - in this market what price would a placing take place at and how many warrants would be handed out ?. From what was said by people who were at the AGM, Colin emphasised the need for a further placing to pay for blue sky projects ?.
Is what I see in the current s/p .
While I think this is very unfair in the first instance; going with that logic, such a thing makes much less sense - again - if CB has now decided not to spend any more money drilling Bushranger from here forward.
(or decided not spend any more money drilling there in at least the next 12 months, would be perhaps a better view for me to take.. as if the POC rises decently thru 2024, perspectives on Bushranger may easily change considerably.. and the xtr bank balance would more readily again facilitate further drilling there too)
The logic behind such a minus Bushranger valuation is, in my best deduction, that not only is Bushranger worth zero now but CB will spend millions more of Xtr's Africa Gold revenue on further exploring it and it will still be worth zero after that
As he may well have now decided not to spend any of those millions more on Bushranger anywhere around the current POC, then zero would be the harshest valuation that should now be put on Bushranger imho (again, zero is far too harsh a a value for it in the first instance anyway btw / imho)
And as I believe that the market will soon wake up the Manica Gold being worth at a very minimum 2p a share here .. my view that this will go back to 2p plus soon enough is plenty merited
IMHO & DYOR
When I was looking to buy in 2020 the SP was 0.040 and in May this year it hit 0.99 might have gone into the 1p range as well, I just check in ever so often if I'm feeling too happy, it's a good quick kick in the teeth!
WOW Profit of Ā£450K thats huge... how many shares does that equate to?
I'm not selling at this price with the Gold figures not that far off, I'll think about selling some around then but I'll probably hold until it feels like a funding raise is being looked for (more podcasts and hype!)
I can hold for a few years if needs be, most stocks are pretty bad at the moment (why risk when interests rates are so high) I do kick myself ever few months though, when I bought in here I was weighing up Premier African Minerals or XTR and decided XTR was less risky, at the height of SP this year I would have made over Ā£450,000
HL won't take 100k sell let alone the 250k I'm trying to sell.
The last weeks have been dead on AIM generally. More posts than trades !.