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Guys - There is over-promising on timescales and then there is not releasing appropriate news to the market... which is also a problem.
The RNS dated 31st May was obviously intended to meet the timescale for providing what CB alluded to being an 'AA ready' report/presentation on the BR asset. What we got was nothing of the sort, was all old news and was not RNS worthy. Obviously, the BR assets just keeps getting bigger so why not just update with news that phase 2 drilling is be extended because they system is even bigger than they thought... what shareholder is going to complain about that?
But then there are other promises not kept and RNS worthy news being sat on. Where are the IP survey results that were going to sharpen the picture? And where is the updated drill plan that would be informed by the geophysics, and news of the associated drill pad approvals? If you promise it and then don't provide it (despite shareholders knowing it must be done), then it is only going to result in negative speculation i.e. isn't the news good?
Maybe (hopefully) there is master plan and good reason for delays and sitting on information. But until such a plan is revealed, I will continue to justifiably complain about the poor comm's and pray I an eating humble pie in the not too distant future.
Unless they are released tomorrow (I assume they wont be today as they are released at 7am), then it would appear AndyM is correct when he said that CB could be taking advantage of the 2 month delay option.
If so we may not get the final results until late August and the AGM will also be delayed until then. We should know for sure by 7.05 am tomorrow !
Howzap
With respect, I think you are over thinking and over analysing what I’m saying.
I agree with you that the projects are different, and Bushranger is different to the African assets, but CB’s personal character traits are not different. So he is just as likely to over promise in what he is saying now, as before. As Steve 4077 said
“ All I am saying is we all KNOW that CB is terrible at setting target dates. He almost always misses the dates he sets because he is too optimistic. He is 78ish so he is not going to change”
I think this will do well over the next 6 to 12 months, and CB’s optimistic forward guidance and missed timescales may well be seen as just an irritation, but I would caution anyone one takes the view:
“ We know what’s going to happen and when because CB has said so in an interview”
In short, that was my point.
>> So I agree you are probably right Andrew in that it ‘is’ us post BR investors that have a blinkered view as we naturally are more protective of our own egos and anything negative that challenges what justified them decisions to buy in.
Ego is a very dangerous thing in investing :)
I don't have a problem with negative comments, especially if they are backed with evidence. I saved myself a decent amount a couple of years ago by researching the comments made by someone who I thought might have been de-ramping, but I wanted to be sure. Fortunately, I got out before what he predicted came true. I have also bailed on another couple of large investments, accepting a sizeable loss in one of those cases, when new information became available. Both stocks are now much lower. You have to constantly re-evaluate and avoid getting emotionally invested in a stock.
What I do have an issue with is unsubstantiated negative comments with no supporting evidence, obvious de-ramping or trolling, presenting only negatives without considering offsetting positives or simply complaining because there hasn't been an RNS for a couple of weeks.
I accept that longer-term holders than me have a bad impression of CB, mainly it seems around optimistic date setting and events that happened two years ago or longer. However, given the 100+ RNS delivered in the last two years, the massive drilling program at BR, the very good signs coming out of Manica with regard to production that will eliminate the need for future raises, the gold at Ascot, Colin's track record in achieving a sale in the past, etc., I don't really care if Colin consistently over-promises on dates, either in the past or the future. I am basing my investment on the results, not the promises.
If at some point, some actual negative evidence appears about XTR in the present or the future, then I may sell, but I won't be selling because of what happened years ago when this was a company in a very different situation with a different team and different partners.
If I could offer one last observation on the differing opinions of the pre and post Bushranger investors, before I get too drunk :-]
Post BR investors have done their research and based on their risk aversion have spent their hard earned, buying primarily into the project.
Whereas pre BR investors had already bought into its other assets and had BR handed to them on a plate.
So I agree you are probably right Andrew in that it ‘is’ us post BR investors that have a blinkered view as we naturally are more protective of our own egos and anything negative that challenges what justified them decisions to buy in. Whereas the pre BR holders expectations maybe don’t need to be as high.
Steve. How he described Bushranger generally regarding size.
Thank you for the reply Andrew, that is what I was expecting back from you in response. I can only reiterate the difference with African ventures and problems usually associated with the territory, so no, not just Fairbride.
I do believe the Oz asset should be looked at from a fresh perspective, and evaluated on its own merit. Bushranger is no doubt the primary asset and all efforts are centred toward bringing it to market. That speaks volumes in itself.
The uniqueness of having targets set in a buy back agreement has totally changed the approach to how the increase in the resource is reported now the company are close to the finished programme of works. The now covert approach, ‘confirmed’ (using other words) by CB in interview has caused the most uncertainty amongst shareholders with no clues as to what they actually have now and is the root cause of most negativity. Certainly not because of duff results or bad news. It’s human nature anyway, a natural defence mechanism when one is not in control anymore. imo the feelings are just compounded from past experiences for the Shareholders pre bushranger.
It’s not a criticism, all opinions are valuable and to differ on them only promotes healthy debate. Thank you everyone for that and again to you too Andrew
I'm expecting the Final Results RNS within the next 46.5 hours. I know they only cover the period up to the end of 2021, but Colin's statement might give us some clues as to where we are heading with BR.
> > Steve can I ask your opinion? Do you think Colin was guessing regarding "minerals that we think are down there" when he was describing the holes to us in the interviews :-)
You'll need to be a little more specific about what he was describing. He usually talks about that have already been drilled though, rather than what we might find in future holes.
"It’s fair to say that some LTH have this blinkered view, Fairbride has driven a wedge of mistrust and lowering expectations"
Only someone who is new here would say that. LTH scepticism, or (should that be blinkered view) ! is not just down to delays in FB, but due to many other issues over the years such as:
Initial Alluvial production estimates by CB of 20K oz a year
Alluvial timescales
Moz Gold fiasco
Eureka timescales (Sept 2021 ore is about to be loaded on the lorries for processing)
Kalengwa timescales
And many other issues I've forgotten about
If it were only due to just FB delays !
The blinkered view comment is appropriate. But it appears more appropriate to those who started investing here about 18 months ago :)
Absolutely Flipper, 55 replies discussing a variety of issues over the last 24 hours. Thank you to all who have contributed - goes to show this is one of the best AIM boards out there. A real mixture of opinions - some offering thoughtful stumbling blocks/criticisms and some more patient /positive offerings. Over on Cobra, I posed a question (about an RNSd update that day) and got 0 replies! All replies here very well laid out and based on previous experience/excellent knowledge.
Further to my mutterings last night, I guess AIM can occasionally be frustrating and Colin's wild optimism can exacerbate that. As others have said, if Colin's deadlines are delayed because we do not want to under explore the licence this is a positive. I hope this is the case. I continue to hold and wait for the endgame - like Andrew I feel this will be 2023 now. Bring it home Colin.
Steve can I ask your opinion? Do you think Colin was guessing regarding "minerals that we think are down there" when he was describing the holes to us in the interviews :-)
In exploration, forward guidance is never going to be completely reliable. We are drilling holes up to three thousand feet deep and hoping to hit minerals that we think are down there (based on other drills and various surveys) but it is definitely not an exact science. As each hole is drilled, the knowledge gained will likely change the future plans.
The share price will reflect that uncertainty as some investors will not want to invest until they are certain of what is down there. Of course, by that point the price will be higher. It depends on the level of risk you are willing to accept based on the available information and the potential downside.
I think XTR's most important aspect is the lack of potential downside. It may be hard to judge exactly how much the share price might increase right now, but its hard to see how it doesn't go up from here over the longer term.
It’s fair to say that some LTH have this blinkered view, Fairbride has driven a wedge of mistrust and lowering expectations of Bushranger with more chance perceived of under delivering. I don’t think that is fair to CB. You can only judge him after an overall outcome, not during! You cannot compare the time scale predictions of a development and start up mining operation in Africa to a simple bread and butter exploration programme in Australia, run by a hugely experienced geologist management team.
It is changing geologically, with each drill. So is understandable that exploration does not follow a specific path. And in this situation , I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that it is acceptable to move the target date back as evaluation has shown that further work above and beyond what was initially expected is now required. Especially as it appears to be for a genuine growth opportunity for the project.
At this point he hasn’t missed any targets. It is true Andrew, we are all guilty of believing what we want to believe at times, gives me a warm fuzzy feeling, but we are all realistic in that belief, guided by interviews, RNS what we understand from our research combined.
A polite note-
I personally always try to give an objective view on current status, and maybe am lucky to not have judgement clouded by past affairs and difficulties, including financially.
Interesting discussion regarding delivery. I suppose we have to ask what it is we are hoping that Colin will deliver. For me delivery has to reflect in the SP. Can the SP performance be linked to the forward guidance ? Or does it not matter and delivery is making good on the promise of one big payout. What then if the forward guidance regarding Bushranger has been less than reliable ? As shareholders can we expect reliable forward guidance ?
Having been here about the same time as Gixxer, I would say the problem with CB is not that you can't believe anything he says (that would make things too simple) its that you can't believe everything he says. The trick is to try and work out which parts are true or not. And I know that's difficult and that we shouldn't have to do that.
Take Fairbride for example. He has delivered on that. A great result. But not in the pathway he said. And we had the "cough" "misunderstanding" of when the SA borders would re open.
Most know, or should do by now, that CBs time scales are unreliable (either made-up or too optimistic) and yes we should ignore them, but I bet the next time he gives a timescale or expectation, most on here will be referencing back that timescale or figure and not ignoring it - even those who have acknowledged CB's timescales and guidance are unreliable.
Unfortunately most tend to believe what they want to believe. Life can be much better like that,, until reality hits us :)
Just incase that all sounds negative and a deramp, I'm still expecting a buy-out of 20p min, but now not until H1 2023. And I havent sold any of my holding.
A lot of very good posts for "no posts".
Personally I think Colin loves doing deals but is less interested in execution. As long as he hands back the cash when BR is sold and hopefully at a substantial profit I will be fine with the "delays".
>> Consistently late, sure you do....
You are missing the point. The developer or analyst says project X will take 2 days and I know from experience it will take a week because he is over-optimistic and he will run into problems he hasn't considered. So he is late vs the target he set, but actually did a great job and in the timeframe I expected.
Now we have project Y. Developer says 2 days and I know it will be a week because he just can't help being optimistic and he will run into problems he hasn't considered...
Am I really supposed to fire this excellent developer because he is always optimistic? He delivers well - he just doesn't deliver vs his own optimistic timeframes. I wish you could understand this difference.
I've been a Director of Analytics at a FTSE 100 company for 11 years. Why? because I make them millions every year and I get all the time and space I want to do it.
As well as running a large team, I choose my own personal projects, which often involve analytical research and go in unexpected directions. I have never been threatened with dismissal because I found something new and decided to pursue it. I have elements of my personality that annoy people, but they are accepted because I deliver revenue from discovering things that no one else has, not because I deliver a fixed quantity of work in a fixed quantity of time.
I've been a consultant at the same company for 9 years. Why? because I get my work done on time!
Consistently late, sure you do....
being told that we are late because we have found a huge gold laden porphyry seems a somewhat more acceptable excuse than, sorry this licence is a bust and warrants no further investment .
>> Would you accept a consistently late deliverable from someone working for you? - I assume you'd fire them pretty sharpish.
Actually, I do that all the time. Most developers are terrible at estimating how long something takes - they are always massively optimistic, so I automatically compensate for it when I get their estimates. Otherwise I would be firing otherwise excellent developers based on a single aspect of their work that I never rely on anyway :)
You can constantly complain about something that is never going to change, or you can simply take account of it when making decisions.
Gixxer,
If I remember correctly you have a large number of shares and consequently you are very heavily geared and consequently very sensitive to any fall in the sp. I can understand that but as has already been said, I think the delay here is due to good reasons not bad. I think CB said that we don't want to sell and then find in a year or two that AA inherit a huge resourse that has not been reflected in the sale price.
Stuff is happening and it needs extra time to come to fruition. Ascot, Footrot and potentially other assets could make us a fortune but for just a touch of luck.
Deep breath ... and think of England.... -:)
Really? - You accept that a person in a supposedly professional position should be given a break due to his personality?
So the person you've paid to build you a new house gives you a deadline and then misses it time and time again. That's fine though cause he's a bit old but seems to be a nice chap and your sure he will get it done eventually....
Would you accept a consistently late deliverable from someone working for you? - I assume you'd fire them pretty sharpish.