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Screenlearner
In a recent discussion re sale date the views were Q1 to Q3 2023, with mid 2023 most common.
I'm sure most of that time frame would have been made up of more drilling and modeling, not negotiations. So I would think that many think there will be more work to do - more work than CB has implied or even stated?
I really dont have a problem with that. However. my slight concern is why?
Is it to exploit more value from the area before sale ie exploit the Golden Bonanza at Ascot etc and really not to give away a cadia as CB said. Or is it because CB has not been able to get to 2mt and needs Ascot / Footrot to help get over the line or even just nearer the line?
Thats more of my concern. I'm more inclined to believe the former. I hope so anyway!
Also the delay might also be intentional because Colin fears that if he announces a phase 3 drillling programme before we have more firm data on income from Africa that might really hit the SP.
Screenlearner,
It would explain the lack of info and delays but as I have said before, I'm happy to wait if it means a bigger jam sandwich some time down the road.
I have re-listened to 324 Traders café with Colin Bird on Vox Markets. I may just be catching up with what others have already understood but starting around 3 mins 55 secs we start getting a whole series of hints or even clear statements about, what I am now suspecting, refer to a probable extensive phase 3 of drilling. For example
About Ascot: " Don’t be surprised if we get into a near surface extended drill program.
"I think we will end the programme, phase two, by firing two holes into Footrot." [Notice Colin's self-correction of 'programme' to 'phase 2']
'[there are ] other anomalies to check [ notice the plural]
"Lot of hard work in front of us."
"I’m pretty sure we will be ending up with a near surface programme at Racecourse and Ascot."
This doesn't sound like a man about to down tools and sell anytime soon. I suspect we may soon/imminently (lol) get news of an extensive phase 3 drilling plan that will knock any idea of drawing a close to exploration and then a quick sale firmly on the head. Have others already come to this conclusion some time ago? Or perhaps some think i am reading too much into these comments or that perhaps they could even be a 'poker bluff' of sorts.
I'm with you on that Lucky. Is it acceptable for Colin to "discuss " the likely monetisation from a shareholders point of view? Or would that be too forward thinking? How much will depend on who buys Bushranger..... I.e. for AA likely it would be cash but if it ended up being sold to an up and coming Tier2/Tier 1 wannabe there could be a mix of cash and shares.
It feels like something that could be at least discussed..... but happy to be corrected
Totally agree Lucky. My understanding and for many on this board, was that BR would be sold and a payout made. If you exclude BR, how many of Colin's recent projects have had added any shareholder value across his multiple companies ?. In his TIR annual report he said how hard it is to find good projects at the moment with fair value. So why bother wasting shareholder cash on ever more speculative projects going into a possible recession ?. There were some good posts on the BZT and GLR Friday night which are worth reading regarding shareholder value.
Gone, but not quite gone.
What I didn't like about the yearly report is we are looking at a few more copper plays! How will we fund these as well as bushranger? If we keep spending our profits on aquasitions and exploration, when will we get our reward? Its not in the SP rise because when you try and sell a few shares the SP drops. Being a long term holder with quite a few, it looks nice in your account untill you try selling them, which is very difficult in quantity. Basically, it's bushranger successfully being sold with a special dividend or we sit here for years on end watching Colin spend our money on exploring the world while he gets paid and including bonuses and first class travel around the world.
So we need a dividend, which won't happen unless it's from the sale of bushranger.
He's gone!
It's 10/1 that he's gone before the next post !
Good call Rick. I will take a 10 bagger from 3.5p. My call is that Boris will be gone before we get news again !.
Yes ‘imminently maybe?’ Oasis album isn’t it.
SL I’m really stumped as to how this will be played out. If they are keeping cards close to their chest as said so by the boss to go into negotiations. At what point are we likely to see the news released. The share price may not have any relevance whatsoever in a valuation of BR. CB has mentioned about maybe having to apologising for a low share price going into negotiations a while back, so that certainly suggests that the big news that will immediately impact the market cap will be held back. That’s what I can see for now, I know others are more hopeful of news.
Ha Ha Howezap, I appreciate your efforts but I think you may be underestimating the depth of our misery! We probably need some serious good news from CB to pull us out of it, not just the possible location of a drill site! Ho hum, perhaps some significant good news is (to coin one of Colin's words) 'imminent'.
Ok ok I’ll put you all out of your misery ;-) plenty of clues, it would have been earlier in phase 2 when the crews were likely to be more in sync and where holes would have been adjacent. Weather is a bit of a giveaway too, oz winter being June-august.
Confirmed by the tall spindly tree in particular and others next to in the background clearly visible from its shadowing on Google earth, that was a reference point in the ‘spot the drill last year. The view is looking west and the holes being drilled are from the pads that serviced holes 7&9 and 8&10.
Was actually quite an easy one.
Drills
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7617L_1-2022-5-17.pdf
So close to my buy in price , so so close. :)))))
I do find the current situation nerve racking. The basis of that is the lack of updates relating to news we would expect to now be available: IP results, drilling progress, assays and other news. I have been here before and the end result is not usually good. However, I find it difficult to see how XTR is not going to pan out to the benefit of shareholders. We have income (which is essentially the most critical characteristic of any successful company) and resources in the ground that are both in demand and not going anywhere unless XTR says so.
We can argue about the value of those resources but as long as a major miner feels the grades are sufficient to make it worthwhile mining then the sp is way below the current value.
But that brings me back to why we have not heard about news that should have been available weeks ago. I accept that things can be happening behind the curtain but surely with the sp where it is now it would pay to let some of this be revealed to maintain interest. Surely not all of it would have a detrimental effect of discussions with a third party.
Hence my jangled nerves - I'd like to top up here when funds become available in the next month or two but do I have the nerves of steel?
Only time will tell.
Totally agree Steve,
If we summerise the various RNS that have been released, including the annual results, we know.
- That Manica(empress) has entered production.
- That the alluivials and hardrock are sporadic (vary quarter by quarter) but are increasing very strongly.
- That Footrot was about to drilled (to date of the annual result)
- That more infill drilling was required at racecourse (the JORC and model will obviously be dependent on this so will be sept-oct).
- That they wanted to do a deep drill at Ascot. (the jorc and model for ascot will be dependent on this).
- Zambia is currently being tested to determine which material is best suited for easy-local production.
I certainly have a few questions around where we are with drilling and assays at BR. Maybe some more clarity re which Quarter the model and JORC's will be released in. In total though we have been told most things to some degree.
The major positive points as far as i can see are that might fall.
1. Footrot assay finding good-excellent mineralisation.
2. deeper ascot result finding strong mineralisation (I was on record as saying on here that a well placed drill at Ascot will find some truly stunning results.)
3. very good revenue figures from gold sales.
4. possible interest by 3rd parties in Bushranger.
5. Good (but expected) results from the infill drilling of Racecourse. I am looking forward to 300-500m of strong shallow mineralisation.
Will these things improve the SP? who knows but with the fall on low volume, it doesn't take a genius to see that a fairer market with a bit of buying sees a bounce back to 5p-6p.
As always just IMO.
Great posts today Steve, that’s pretty much where my heads at. No mad rush to sell in current climate, if we’ve got the funds and budget, keep on at it and explore / expand the optionality - but communicate with shareholders if this is the new direction!
Whilst we’ve had news recently, it’s certainly not been the consistency / frequency of the past couple of years, with lots of holes / feedback / IP / drill locations missing and news we have had clearly contradicts what CB said in interviews earlier in the year about state of play with project.
This coupled with general market conditions and falling copper prices is pushing price down and it’ll probably keep going (much as I hate to say it!)
When I say Radio silence, I was referring to interviews, which have seemed to have died off, after the glut previously. I realise market conditions are not great at present, but I can`t see why we had all the hype and weekly interviews, for it now to be silent.
"Given the current copper price, I can't see a sale happening quickly"
Before the POC drop, I didnt think there would be a quick sale as there was still work to be done, probably more work than CB had implied tbh. I was thinking Q1 2023.
However, I dont think the drop in POC will affect this time scale for sale, as I'm sure the major prospective buyer has a better understanding on 2030+ POC than most :)
Those that are selling are probably not giving our situation much thought and are adding 2+2 and getting 22, If we were a copper producer now, then that would be a concern.
>> what I find the most concerning is the radio silence
I'm not sure what you mean by this - we had a detailed report on all company activities only a week ago.
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Xtract-AR2021.pdf
Given the current copper price, I can't see a sale happening quickly. Based on the above, it looks like a district, so with income with Manica we may as well do some more drilling while we wait for general market conditions to improve.
Unlike almost all other small explorers, we have sufficient income to fund exploration, so there is no time pressure. CB confirmed above that there would be no raise for 12 months. He said the same thing a year ago and kept his word.
Or to quote Kipling "If you can wait, and not be tired by waiting", then you will very likely make a good profit here.
Hi Iceberg,
Any thoughts on Savannah resources news today? I bought in years ago at about 10p / share, I've waited and waited and losing patience but with wait even longer now.
Steve, I agree about the volume, but what I find the most concerning is the radio silence, after the regular interviews and the hype, which I have personally never seen before on any share that I have invested in, so I really hope it comes good or his credibility will be totally shattered in my eyes. GLA
I'll repost something I posted earlier on telegram:
We are down 3% at the moment but volume is only 360k traded (1 share in every 2600)
We might have had a large fall recently but it was on very low volumes of sells. Almost all of the LTH seem to be continuing to hold. For example, since the end of May there were 5 days with less than 1m volume, 8 days with less than 1.5m, 4 days with less than 2m and 5 days with less than 2.5m. The only day with more was July 1st. For reference, 2m volume is about 0.25% or about 1 share in 425. I recall several of those days where the price fell with buys greater than sells.
In other words, there is no significant selling. Just a drifting price. Don't let that affect your confidence if you are well researched.
I really hope Colin delivers the deal of all deals soon, as the erosion of the SP is not confidence building, especially with all his hype and many, many interviews but now all silent. GLA for a great outcome.