We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Does XTR need to produce better numbers ?. Eventually copper prices will increase. It is then a choice of facing higher taxes and water issues in places like Chile, pesky natives in Peru, change of Governments in the PI and Zambia and the Congo !. For some reason the local populations dislike having their land destroyed by a mine with all its associated pollution, polluted rivers, drying up of boreholes, deforestation and profits only going to a few local elites even if they are happy to accept the brown envelope at election time. And these days there are plenty of western good hearted people to support them with the aid of social media.
Almost certainly re strip ration
Although it’s painful, it’s fully expected with companies in this environment. I know it’s very cliché but a profit is only a profit when you sell and a loss is only a loss when you sell. When the SP is up, it makes you feel better, but doesn’t really mean much. When it’s down it makes it harder, but again doesn’t really mean much. (At least unless you need to sell for a deadline).
Re the copper price, I am not sure it means much for BR imo. Equally if it were at 11k a tonne it doesn’t mean that would be the valuation point, if it were at 6k a tonne it wouldn’t make that the valuation point.
A far bigger concern for the economic model will be electricity costs and fuel costs. I am happy for the economic model to wait for these to come down 20-40% as it will make the NPV far higher.
When they have been good they have been released 2 weeks after the period ended. So IF they are good we may get them on Friday??? Hopefully next week latest?
Q2 and Q3 are usually the best quarters.
Their strip ratio looked very competitive as I think Colin mentioned 3 to 1 in the past for BR ? I wonder if dropping the cutoff to 0.1 means they process more marginal material in the pit walls and this results in a more attractive strip ratio ?
In the meantime the drop in the SP is pretty painful for us LTH, just dropped another 4% on no volume...................
Better numbers porv?
What we do know is Infrastructure and utilities are just as favourable, nearby dam and HV power line crosses the site. Racecourse will have low overburden to strip, stats show is from near surface and due to the inclined orientation of the ore body to surface too. Rudimentary mine planning will offer a central processing site that could serve two potential tier 1 open cut mines. With potential for both those mines to access the deeper porphyry/gold systems that lie below the main surface intrusions when the mines are depleted. Massive financial advantages for the extended LOM for both, as to finally access the deeper ore will only carry its own ongoing OpEx with minimal CapEx as the plant would have been payed for. Racecourse is copper dominant and so separation issues are less likely and so more of the copper concentrate will be recovered. Met test work tbc but reported to be inline with expectations for Lachlan fb.
‘Anticipated’ to be using a 0.15 cut off certainly if $4lb is used.
Lots of real data being held as resource building and models are being covertly compiled before going into negotiations as the project is not being developed by xtract but sold onto a major. Final grades and total tonnages, will, if as implied on many occasions will see the potential of a serious tier 1 asset.
That’s just racecourse, the primary asset in terms of fulfilling the requirements of the buy back agreement. Ascot will be a big influence and could add huge value, even more so if the deep gold system is shown from this very last borehole of the (current) programme. It could be what makes this project a ‘lot’ more economical.
Final comparisons will be interesting though, I’m intrigued as to the extent of the mine planning they will have done. They are looking at the projects as separate entities and as they are just putting together a starter project to show its viability to a buyer, will mine planning show that joint processing capability, or singularly to support RC for benefit of the buy back, as Ascot will not have a pit concept due to a completely open ended resource model.
Numbers are being crunched as we wait im/patiently
I think with the amount of cash some of these majors have, they will start aquasitions all over the place. Most of which will be avoiding chile and peru if they can. I think they will also see the dip in commodities as a chance to pick up some bargains, hopefully we won't be one of them and Colin will stand tuff and say take it or leave it, we want this price!!!!!
Need RNS on model and contained copper hopefully including company assumption on likely copper price to be used in any economic calculation for future sale then the market will buzz around and sp improvement will be seen as market prices the company and gap to market assumed sp value on final sale reduces. This will provide initial improvement and then only CB negotiation will determine reality. Just gotta wait and see.
Question - what's the risk the majors don't want to add to their land bank at this point? They may just want to sit on their hands
Brilliant find the similarities are there. The big question can xtr match $1.72/lb operating costs.
Better grades from xtract hopefully.
Thanks Xeiger. Useful info and metrics.
I was going to mention the caravel study. Tell me how xtr can produce better numbers?
Next level plant planning super high tech
HPGR- https://youtu.be/L-pM8BtIw5s
Interesting read thanks
Very Interesting read, thanks.
Hey folks, for those interested Caravel minerals just issued their PFS for their bindi deposit https://caravelminerals.com.au/
Interesting they have used 4$/lb long term copper price and managed to get down to a 0.10 % cutoff. Lots of other details in the summary that provide insight into what xtract are working towards.
Copper is still 50% higher than when bought BR though, the world needs copper and short term price fluctuations shouldn't be much of a worry in the long run.
While copper continues to plummet ($3.30LB) it is good to remind ourselves as Iceberg pointed out... we are a gold producer and a copper explorer. With China in the grip of a self imposed lockdown and recession beckoning worldwide .I would be surprised if any major would commit to BR in this climate. Bring on the gold... It is holding up reasonably and will keep us afloat whilst others may give up.
Recent RNS shows the closure of optionality:
Racecourse to Ascot - closed
Footrot - drilled
Ascot deep - being tested
Feels to me like that’s a full house.
If Ascot does go deep or Footrot has high grades, then more drilling could be required, otherwise jobs a good one - but at least we’ll know.
Given the drills are always a couple of weeks ahead, Ascot should have completed the first deep drill by now. But unless they hit changes in mineralisation and a new porphyry, I’m not expecting any announcements for a while as they’ll need to wait for assay gold grades.
The last assay results didn't show the risk of exploratory investment or that anything has gone wrong. They simply showed we'd found the southern limit of the Racecourse deposit. No exploration project ever ends without encountering low grades/mineralisation at the outer limits of the deposit.
For me, the silence from CB is absolutely deafening and I am not as sure as others that plan A (quick sale) is not still on the cards... I hope it is anyway. Whist the current global insecurities and challenges may impact the price we can obtain for Bushranger, the fact is things could get a lot worse before they get better and last a lot longer than people think. I think it is time to start winding up and to hang the 'for sale' sign up.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data
This site gives the average copper prices over the years and high and low prices.
Hey Steve CB has said many things,it took me a while just to check over some of his past comments. He did in fact mention how a third party would consider 3 different scenarios of copper growth rates , but it was at the same time he spoke of taking advantage of these heady copper prices. So I certainly wouldn’t doubt your opinion now.
Will repost the interview when im back home if anyone wants to hear it. Just say.
I agree in general with LittleWing. The world has changed too much in the last few months to expect a quick resolution, regardless of what CB might have stated before all that started. I might be wrong, but I suspect we hold off for now on any BR sale, get the modelling done, do some more drilling and wait for the economic situation to improve. We can have patience because we have income, which puts us in a very good position to ride this out.
The share price is down a lot, but as I noted earlier that is on very low volume. The vast majority of shares seem to be in patient hands and longer-term it's hard to see anything but a significant improvement in share price.
At least the geologists have a good understanding of BR. There is a risk, as the last assay results showed but those drills were always a punt. If we have to hang around and bide our time, I would rather do it with an asset in OZ than most other parts of the world where security of tenure is the next election.
I believe world events have scuppered any quick finish now tbh. We will maybe never know if Colin would have successfully sold BR this year to the benefit of shareholders. The gamble is does he spend Manica revenue on something that may not be there on other BR targets. Before someone pipes up and points out that we shouldn't be invested in explorers if we cannot understand that gamble... I agree but the guidance to quickly tie a bow on BR and sell it was hardly "normal" exploration gamble scenario (backed up by those uber positive interviews). Maybe such concerns are unfounded and a deal is still on but I find that increasingly unlikely that is still the case any time soon. If we have missed the boat this time around no doubt the world will settle itself and learn to live in peace so we can eventually enjoy the EV revolution and a healthy XTR SP. I stay invested but under no illusions that we are about to get a quick fairy tale ending. We will see.
Do we think this is coming to a conclusion it just seems to be over the next hill I just want my money for being invested here for years.and the share price at what it is what’s to stop AA buying cheap shares and getting its hands on the company on the cheap.colin with his Cyprus adventure it’s down again forget all these companies and concentrate on getting this over the line a very. Impatient long term investor...