Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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"Buy land,they aren't making it anymore" Mark Twain:
They also aren't making Porphyry's anymore either.
AA could buy this almost as a tax limitation purchase based on their profits last year, sit on it until they need it or the price of copper goes up. There is always a bigger fish and what we see as a priority is their option financially.
It isn't nearly such a big deal to them as it is to us.
Some comments on AAs valuation approach and cash availability. I worked in a major oil company for 20 years the last 10 in M&A. I don’t have any significant knowledge of copper/gold but they have many similarities from a valuation perspective. I am sure will have a set of macro economic assumptions, updated qtrly (GDP forecasts by country/region, interest rates, inflation rates, exchange rates, etc) and a price set for copper, gold etc. During my time in oil, the spot price ranged from $20/barrel to over $120. The price sets we used for investment/divestment evaluation never moved lower than $40 or higher than $60. The odd flashy project manager tried to put in a high case at $80 just to try to titillate the executives but those numbers were never shown in a formal proposal.
For internal valuation purposes I am confident AA will have a similar approach. They will want to asses a potential acquisition using a copper/gold price set they truly believe in for the lifetime of the mine. If they simply use current depressed prices they risk losing out on highly profitable investments, and lose out to their competitors. If they believe in a future copper price that will be sustainably higher than historic prices due to electrification etc, they will use that price set in their valuation. Of course they will look at low and high cases and perform lots of sensitivity analysis on various key valuation drivers (e.g. the different production and start up capital costs). Of course this doesn’t mean they won’t use the current situation to bid a cheeky low ball price. Who wouldn’t? But CB should know the game and his trump card should be the potential competition for the BR asset for other suitors. At the end of the day the likely competition for BR is what will set the price.
Regarding cash availability, I expect the AA Treasurer will have a key sign off for any project over, say $50m. They will have a capital budget for the next few years (which MAY have been revised downwards due to current environment), as they will always be looking to feed their project pipeline. The finance/treasury teams will be very interested in the cash flow profile, especially in the early years given likely lower cash inflows in the near term due to current low commodity prices. If BR really has a significant open pit element then that would likely be a massive tick for the AA Treasurer as lower capex outflows initially and quicker cash inflows. Overall, I don’t see current market sentiment being the big issue. It’s much more about the size of Racecourse, nature of Ascot, etc)
The economic and geopolitical situation is changing so quickly that making forecasts is becoming impossible. Who will care about COP26 and all its idealism when they haven't got electricity to turn the lights on or simply can't afford to. Electric cars anyone ?. But if AA do an all share offer, then whereas the cash sum equivalent maybe far less than many of us on here would want, a deal could still be possible. Both AA and XTR shares have dropped by fairly similar amounts over the last 6 months/1 year.
Sorry, meant to add, what do others with any business acumen particularly, think.
Is a little presumptuous at this point I know, but for arguments sake.
How committed, to actively pursuing a sale of Bushranger will Xtract be, once it is ready, complete with models, studies, increased JORC resource etc?
There has always been a clear objective from acquisition right up to recent events in global market that have increased uncertainties one can argue the latter. That objective is not based on, “let’s see where we are in two years.” It is based on a business model, a genuine growth opportunity, objective driven by the terms set out in the buy back agreement, an investment strategy that funded the exploration and saw incentivised share options and bonus schemes for its staff to reward when the project is successfully sold. There is an experienced team that have been contracted in, to no doubt bring the project to its conclusion. They will all want their just rewards, shareholders will too, but we generally get the **** end of the stick and will normally have to wait or move on. But I’m sure the BOD will want, or maybe even be committed to actively marketing Bushranger as soon as feasible.
As far as where the last comms from Colin are concerned, the plan is still go, wether his timescales are optimistic or not to approach Anglo is not my point. Since he announced to extend by a couple of months to complete necessary work for the models, the impending downturn was already well under way!
With current prices that will affect the NPV model, that will have a negative effect on that one aspect of a valuation, there are still other factors that will not be affected by current economics in determining asset value. So, with other commitments scheduled and budgets assigned they simply cannot afford to keep throwing any more at Bushranger while they wait, also consider for how long that could potentially be? Let alone sitting on an asset ‘still’ potentially worth many multiples of the investment that grew it.
Over the next 6-7 years of Fairbride income, the focus will be on sustainable growth in the business, that cannot be done with BR on its books.
The business comes first, and then business, not the other way round.
How do I get on to the XTR Telegram page Steve ?
Just recently opened an account and it's not easy to navigate or find things.
It was on the XTR Telegram group.
Why would you want to release anything half decent in this market?
Like others, I’ve seen a fair amount of largish trades going through. They could be normal boys and girls from these forums., but they might also be somebody with a few more shares offloading. The broker and or Colin should he watching the share register. If Colin sees somebody offloading from an account with a decent amount of shares, he might well decide to wait with news until they’ve finished. I know quite a few ceos who would/have done this
For what it's worth, Kevin Hornsby ( from the Sunday Roast interviews has said this about CB's radio silence:
"No he doesn’t want to put anything out in this market, nothing bad or sinister happening but I will chat up with him this coming week. Boy this is cheap now !!!"
"I look at the xtract chart and think.....if only I new this knowledge a few years ago!!"
I wonder if in 6 or 9 months times some may be thinking the same again and wishing they had bought a lot more at this price??:)
I remember when SP went down to 0,7p and I was getting worried that I had made a terrible mistake investing in this. I was deeply under water. I started to think that I may have been an idiot .
I slept on it and then decided to keep averaging down and bought another 500k x 2 at 0.7p
Looking back I had been an idiot .... only buying just another million at £7K :)
Anyone ever watched the classic movie" Ladies who do "
Reminds me very much of us lot
Maybe they are doing what I did couple weeks ago..... I sold about 45ks worth over a few days because I had had enough and was being sensible for once lol
The price dropped a couple days later and I bought all the shares back and ended up with about 7k to go towards my tax bill!!
It was the most nerve racking couple of days as my trading history is abysmal!!
First time I have sold and bought any xtract shares for a very long time.
I have learnt my lesson now and from now on, when I buy any share, I will have a long term portion and a trading portion.
I look at the xtract chart and think.....if only I new this knowledge a few years ago!!
For all the talk of how copper prices are going to the moon, it is still in a sharp downward trend. Colin loved to talk of this being the time of the small miner. At the current prices most small mines will be unprofitable. In a years time probably shuttered. I am still confident in what we have in our gold assets and BR, but given the economic and geopolitical outlook it is hard to keep buying just to see the price go down. And in recent months CB hasn't helped given his previous uber bullishness.
Don't feed the troll.
>>People have personnel tax bills to pay this month. If it was the same seller that offloaded 1.5e6 this morning, then that's a fecking big personal/PiK tax bill....
People have personnel tax bills to pay this month , I am in still in with quite a big holding and happy to add
>> shareholders don't have the confidence to add at these super low prices, then it is no wonder no new blood is being drawn
I do have the confidence to add, just not the money :)
Have been away from this share for some time BUT if the sp goes below 3 then i will in again for hopefully some profit again
2s will be seen this afternoon. Told you it was a dead cat bounce yesterday. This will be worth buying at 2.50, so it will be soon. Buy cheap sell higher. GLA
Yea, i noticed the roast boys have gone quiet. And Bird has 100% given them a 'heads up' on news in the past!
Saying that, it could be anyone for any reason....
Colin wants 750 mill for it all and JV has only come up with 495 mil,
so slowly getting there Ha ha
I never thought we would see the 2s again!
Hopefully bounce off 3p!?
Ben - Firstly, it wasn't me that sold! But I have added to my holding with some money that became for a short term(ish) investment. Perhaps the seller is in a similar position and needed the money back... we all have different circumstances.
The fact is that we were told that XTR was to complete the modelling by the end of May and would be presenting to AA. The target date has been and gone, we've had radio silence from CB ever since, and investor nerves are now jangling. Whilst the vast majority of shareholders are holding tight, it is also plain to see they are not adding. If the most knowledgeable shareholders don't have the confidence to add at these super low prices, then it is no wonder no new blood is being drawn and the SP is where it is. We are in irons and going nowhere until we get some news to renew the confidence.
I've just emailed CE to make sure he is OK . I doubt he will be selling tbh.
If / when I get a reply I'll confirm the situation.
That crossed my mind Gixxer, he does have colins phone number and chats to him. I don't belive that would be the case but who knows?
The roast guys and zak have all gone quiet aswell.
Mmmmmm??