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>>I don’t think your get a response
A response stating that would be the least they could do then!
Just because they have 2m tones doesn’t mean it’s a done deal as low grades means lots more manpower and effort to extract meaningfull amounts that AA might see as too exspensive to mine but at 3 to 4 m it would be a goer to cover the lower grade
I don’t think your get a response - not because they don’t want to, but because they probably can’t. It’s rare to get commercial contract details confirmed in writing. Unless the answer is looked over by a lawyer it opens up a can on potential worms for the company.
I sent the following to try and get some clarification of the AA agreement:
Hello,
I wonder if you could clarify some parts of the AA buyout agreement.
As I understand it: A party 'blinks' and puts a valuation on the table. If accepted, a deal is done, subject to due diligence.
If not, it goes to a 3rd party 'expert' valuation. If the valuation is accepted by both parties the deal is done.
If not, it goes again to a 3rd party valuation - The furthest away from this, revised valuation, pays fees.
I'd like to know what happens should one party reject the second valuation.
- Is the contract with AA void?
- Does the second valuation have to be accepted?
- Is there some sort of arbitration or does it go to another expert for evaluation?
Kind regards
Dr JJBrown
I sent this email about 5/6 times before I received a read receipt - Null response.....
Interestingly, I had a read receipt with 5mins for my AGM registration.
Is this the same buy-back that may have just been kicked into the long grass ?
ZM - I believe CB may have said that they don't have to accept the valuation of the independent valuer but I don't believe that can be true and think he must have muddled his words.
AA can obviously decide not to buy at the price the independent valuer determines to be a fair market rate and that will be that in terms of the 'once only' buy back opportunity. But ProspectOre (now Xtract as new lease owners) committed to allowing AA to buy back at a fair market rate and agreed to the methodology that would determine that rate... I don't see how they can reject it.
Of course, none of us have seen the actual contract and there may be something in there that gives them a get out. I just doubt it. What is the point of a buy-back clause that is unenforceable?
Flipper ... it is my understanding that the AA 'agreement' gives them first refusal and they can offer a price. If this is rehected by XTR it goes to an independant valuation using the valmin method. But XTR is not compelled to accept this either. If rejected, AA has lost their advantage and the asset can be offered on the free market to allcomers. So regardless of the current copper price (I think most grown-ups realise that a valuation based on today's copper price rather than the implicit value of a shrinking world resource in much demand that will only come on stream in 10 years time when availability and demand will have become more under pressure) it is in AA's interest to offer an attractive price at the outset. Mining companies are scrabbling to secure assets to mine as this is the only way to secure their future existence. Timescales are measured in decades unlike most business models. XTR is not going to mine this thing. But someone will want to have it for that. I'm very interested to hear views that support or refute the above.
Some strange comments below...
I've only read the RNS to me it looks very good (they don't always i promise).
We've tied off Bushranger (by my calculations it will come in at around 1.5-1.6mt CUEQ)
We have finished drilling on Ascot for now, which is enough to give us something like 300-600mt CUEQ - the drilling isn't as extensive and we need to know the assay results.
There is rightly a focus on the 2MT - however their is no doubt now that we have two of the bigger copper-gold projects on the Fold, all in the same license. Combined they are of national size and importance for Australia.
all of this is pretty much 18 months of drilling-exploration.
Looking in more detail, Colin seems particularly impressed with the deeper Ascot drill. He's tried to play down expectation in visuals recently and we could have something special there.
With no need to raise money - lots of gold income, with the JORC's on the board, there is little doubt column inches will be forthcoming. With everthing that XTR has on such a small budget and team, I still remain firmly convinced its significantly undervalued. Whatever the price is in this well below par market.
The AA buy back option has probably protected Xtract from a low hostile takeover bid. I cannot imagine that Colin would wish to confirm that we’re short of 2MT. But equally why would he trigger the BuyBack or negotiate with AA at the current time.
Whatever your views about how long inflation might be high, the geopolitical situation if anything is now more complicated and prolonged with China Taiwan tensions.
So I’m resigned to a longer timescale with unsatisfactory RNS and interviews for the foreseeable future. But I don’t doubt that this is a potential Tier 1 mine at a time of growing demand for copper that will be sold at some stage.
The last RNS (27 July) referred to 2 drill holes at Footrot. No mention in this one
Don't worry guys, we are all in the same boat. Non of us can sell any quantity of shares.
Turn up at the AGM in 3 Weeks, there's no security there either BTW. We can find out how many lashes the board are willing to take?
I feel I missed my opportunity to cash in at a higher SP here. Greed clouded my judgement despite knowing all too well the history of truth economics. I see this drifting lower now as it seems there is nothing concrete to gamble all the much awaited FB cash on.
You only have to look at Biden, similar age to Bird, to see clearly that one just can't operate efficiently at such an age. Never mind running, Odin knows, how many companies....
I hope I'm wrong, and I maybe, but this is starting to look more likely that the results from phase 1 and 2 have not met CBs implications.
Phase 3 drilling and now including IP outside the Ascot and Racecourse, does seem an attempt to try and find more tonnage to justify his previous comments.
I'm not expecting the RC model to be released for some time.
Less than 3 weeks to the AGM. CB may have a few questions to answer and some clarity required.
I think he may get a harder time there than with the Zak Mir interviews.....
Hole 53 completed 23/5 and hole 54 30/5 both assays RNS'd on 27 July so maybe 8 weeks.
They need a level of geo review before RNS produced so they are likely back from the lab sometime before that and depends on geo workload.
CB please just retire FFS.....
Yesterday Steve quoted "The expert has 60 days to say what he thinks the value is using the Valmin method, which includes a DCF model, and Enterprise Value and looks at similar sales in the last five years"
Even if we reach 2m/t, AA could offer a low ball price then use the Valmin method. Given the current copper price, possibly worse next year and similar project sales based on the "last 5 years", is it in our interest to rush a sell. Valuations will not be based on some hypothetical high value of copper in x years time.
agree Steve and I found the statement "Its gone over the markets head that we are producing gold at Fairbride" hardly surprising and rather self inflicted !
>> hardly surprising and rather self inflicted - Spot on!!.
He's moaning about that and yet does feck all PR - it's/he's an absolute joke to expect the market to somehow know what's happened just from an RNS. The only people that, really, read them are investors. What world does the man live in....?
It's an easy ride for him to blame the current markets when the company is doing feck all to promote assets that are actually generating income after years and years of dilution - A much bigger deal should have been made of Manica coming online.
The company could, easily, halve the salary of the CFO - Bin the, so called PR man, Alastair Ford, and get a CEO in who's actually willing to spend time on the company!
The fizz has definitely gone out of this ATM. I get the feeling CB is making the mistake of spending money and time on a phase 3 drilling programme that has a high likelyhood of a mediocre result. When he said (repeatedly) that this wouldn't be a "death of a thousand cuts" I believed him, now we seem to be falling into the trap of chasing rainbows. The longer it goes on the more it will feel like the XTR of old and that isn't good at all.
I don't many will have the stomach for another 12 months of uncertainty with the SP where it is now, it's bound to slide unless we get an RNS that doesn't consist of average news and kicking the ball down the road.
I've always been an advocate of a few extra months to prove up Ascot etc so we don't under sell RC but out of the thousand cuts I feel we are already up to 900 and enthusiasm in the shareholders is bleeding out as time goes by.
If it carries on in this vein I can see 2p by Xmas and I for one will feel like we missed out on a golden opportunity to make a good few quid in a relatively short period of time. I really hope I'm wrong and we haven't been misled over the last 18 months.
Lets not miss the boat Colin.
Let's hope the Sunday Lunch guys get an interview... they allow more time and actually get to push for some answers.
Awful interview. I hate the way these guys are never held to account for comments and statements made previously to the same interviewer. CB is just being given a platform to say what he wants, without any difficult questions. Clearly Zak does not want to give reason for the likes of CB to refuse future interviews, but this is just frustrating for shareholders.
Sorry
Forgot FB Rns on 22 July, but it did not read in as positive way, as it should have done.
How long are assays roughly taking to be completed atm?
If possible whoever is able to attend the AGM does ask a few questions of which have been discussed over last few days.
CB mentioned on GLR part of interview mentioned 1000 lashes well as far as Xtr, is concerned would say that it is already around 5000 & still rising.
Agree that on FB there has not been any full on news on it trough RNS. Unless you count around a couple of lines of which was in an RNS.
Disappointed that there was no indication of when the model will be issued..... doesn't change the end game but it is disappointing that I still dot know when to buy the popcorn and champagne.
Those attending the AGM should try and push for news on the Racecourse model.
Without a clearly communicated end game, I would think XTR is now vulnerable to a buyout. That SP spike of 18 months ago looks out of sight now so brace ourselves for any low ball offers. The forward selling that takes place around the cash raises should indicate that large holders are prepared to accept what appears to be too low a price.