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Iceberg, telling me to keep facts relevant? My post was relevant, it shows that the world's problems have not affected others as much as xtract. So you can't blame that. You also can't blame the copper price. There are obviously many factors affecting the SP but in my opinion most of it stems from the companies doing.
Steve needs to learn he isn't always right and others can have their own opinions. And I think people should keep thier profile pictures relevant.
Some good healthy debate this weekend. I agree with Steve that we should as shareholders all be on the same team. Keeping everyone on the same page is down to the captain... no not you Bob :-). So lets wait and see if captain Colin has given us fair and reasonable forward guidance when the dust settles. Only then can we judge if some of the criticism has been fair and reasonable or if it has indeed been Colin bashing. On the comment about we all win and lose together... that is a lovely idea but which seems to fall by the wayside when cash raise time comes around and the created spike just prior to the cash raise benefits the chosen few who have an opportunity to forward sell. Perhaps they are the entitled beneficiaries ? Anyway I hope this isn't seen as entitled whinging. As someone who has done OK out of XTR, I can still see rights and wrongs.
Prickly made the comment that at their meeting with Colin, Colin stated that there was no point in releasing good news because it wouldn't make any difference. Whereas I feel he should release news and keep at least shareholders updated, if he feels he cannot affect the market then I don't see how a bb will. Minor short term ups and down but not the underlying trend. I honestly don't believe Goldman Sachs rely on this board to make their decisions.
Johnswan your reputation for negativity really is starting to precede you.
Just saying.
Why would you think a raise would be required to look for the next big thing?
They are looking for small deposits that are nearby processing plants that will churn about 50.000tpa over about 5years that will not need heavy front end capital. May be very good opportunities in current environment as many more of these small deposit owners will struggle to secure funds to get them to final production.
You must surely have some positive outlook for the company I would hope.
>> Some suggesting we can hold tight and wait until the market environment improves or Copper goes up, but for how long and at what cost. The reference to other projects suggests we may raise at some point to take on the next big thing, which then dilutes any upside at BR. We also know with small caps that most projects shifted out of focus don’t amount to anything
We've drilled 35,000m in 18 months and are planning a phase 3 - that doesn't really look like being 'shifted out of focus'
We also have income from Manica. About a month ago, we had an RNS stating no raise necessary for 12 months.
As for waiting - the real cost would be acting now with the mining sector down massively, rather a waiting a few months. What's the rush? We have income so we can be patient and we have money to drill and improve the resource.
John
Market environment has to have contributed in some way to the drop. I think its nonsense for anyone to claim that all the drop is down to just one thing ie World Events or all down to CB.
Its a combination of many things but no one knows, despite some claiming to, what the split is.
That IMHO of course !
Steve
The “labelled a basher” comment – was not directed at any individual but a general comment as I’ve seen that approach many times from a number of posters over the years.
The mischaracterisation comment was directed at you. In our discussion yesterday I clearly stated, many times, that the drop could have been mostly or even all down to world events. I just didn’t know what the split was - some said it was obviously all done to world events. You were mischaracterizing my view by claiming that I was saying that world events had very little or nothing to do with the drop.
I was actually making the same point Howzap has just made today.
“There has no doubt been any number of other factors that have contributed to the downturn in Xtract share price over last 6 months.”
But what split that took (90/10 50/50 10/90) I had no idea and now one does.
BTW your point “I am sure the response will be 'no one invests based on forums', but that simply isn't true. “
Of course they do. All the time, but my view would be that f they do then they get what they deserve. Honest posters are often wrong with their view!
Baffles me how people are attributing SP to market environment and impatient investors.
Yes CB has overpromised and also in an interview suggested we were already there or just about there with the 2MT, but assays this year have shown that areas of promise did not yield anything of note. I believe CBs comments were accounting for expected outcome of assays and upcoming holes. Yes Ascot is open (although most recent RNS suggests not in as many directions as hoped), but we expected RC was going to add a bit more yet the boundaries were found in all directions a little bit too quickly. Sure this is a milestone required to close it off and complete the model but I expect comments about 2MT were made assuming there would be more growth. An argument could be made that Ascot is actually worth less now than it was 6 months ago given results of recent holes. CB suggested initially that they would put a few holes in it and leave it open for the buyer, but given disappointment at RC and failure to improve materially on previous Ascot drills we’re now stuck having to prove beyond doubt that the combined resource is of commercial substance.
Some suggesting we can hold tight and wait until the market environment improves or Copper goes up, but for how long and at what cost. The reference to other projects suggests we may raise at some point to take on the next big thing, which then dilutes any upside at BR. We also know with small caps that most projects shifted out of focus don’t amount to anything.
>> With negative comments like that you may get labelled a basher
I think that was directed at me, so maybe check my posting history. I have posted many, many times about how comms could be better (and I intend to raise that at the AGM rather than rant about it) and how Colin is a serial optimist (that is just who he is and he won't change).
What winds me on here are what I might call the 'entitled whingers' (and that isn't you Andrew, so sorry you took a little crossfire). They have 'lost money', at least on on paper, and they can't accept it may just be bad luck (the economy) or their own decisions (no one forced them to buy), so we end up with cognitive dissonance - if it isn't bad luck or their own decisions, then that only leaves Colin to blame. Once they arrive at that conclusion, they then contrive any excuse to attack the perceived source of their problems.
Apologies for going back to poker, but that is like a fast-forward version of investing. You can tell the characters of the players by how they react to adversity or bad luck. Some accept it and don't let it affect them. Others blame the dealer, or the cards or the other players. Normally, I don't mind because emotional people who can't take responsibility make bad decisions and I make more money.
However, this isn't poker in one important regard. Its a team sport. As XTR shareholders, we all win or we all lose. So when people continually bash Colin unreasonably because they can't accept they might simply be unlucky or responsible for their own decision, it negatively affects all of us.
I am sure the response will be 'no one invests based on forums', but that simply isn't true. If someone does their research properly, then yes, they don't rely on forums but they also don't rely on Colin's comms or optimism. You can't have it both ways. Either they are influenced by fluff, such as forums and interviews, or they aren't. Look at how many people appreciate the contributions of theiceberg or Andy Mills and then consider that people might also be taking how board (actively or subconsciously), the continual assault on the company by a group of its shareholders. Why do you think paid trolls target forums - it isn't charitable work.
Also, if you plan to sell your stock then trashing it on a public forum it makes absolutely no sense beyond a childlike desire to stamp your feet.
I have lost significant money myself on stocks - last year in RMM due to the mine collapse and in KEFI due to kidnapping of mine staff by insurgents. I didn't trash the stock or the CEO. Instead of attacking my own investment, I quietly sold, then posted 'good luck everyone' comments on the forums and moved on without a backward glance. I would hate to be one of those bitter, ex-holders who haunts forums for years because they don't want anyone else to be successful.
I am probably not convincing anyone with this post but I am trying anyway because its actually in your interest too. Please consid
There has no doubt been any number of other factors that have contributed to the downturn in Xtract share price over last 6 months.
Sentiment in general, that mistrust from past experiences with LTH’s or CB in general, uncertainties that resource targets are going to be met by many, disappointment that an approach to AA or even a sale hasn’t happened already, Fairbride taking way too long to come good, kalengwa disappointment, investor part selling for purely personal reasons. I’m sure there are many more.
The company may not have helped by their approach to PR, even with a 5’hit hot Twitter feed it wouldn’t have really helped. After all we would still have seen the drop off in key areas of news flow around overall resource building data at BR, that has left us all clueless as to where the tonnages and grades currently are at. That really hasn’t helped investors in general to keep confidence after the early phase news saturation we had.
Any of these many reasons have resulted in sell’s over time. Level 2 has been well tracked and commented by Steve4077 (thank you ) how even small volumes have seen the bid get dragged lower. There is clearly not a big sell off though!
There is way too much evidence out already to warrant that trust in what the company are trying to achieve in what is clearly a difficult time.
Generally, whatever the tonnages are from RC, there is huge benefit financially still, to add significantly to the model from the gold, silver and moly that is there in high grades and further proving district potential if required.
" I do think he has over promised (I remember getting cross at one of his interviews last year). I have never brought into the Tier 1 talk and generally have lower valuations than him."
Careful Iceberg. With negative comments like that you may get labelled a basher :)
Yes agreed with all your post. Very balanced and reasonable points.
Lets hope no one just focuses only on your negative points and tries to completely mischaracterise what you are saying :)
Lucky, we need to be a bit more relevant with our facts.
The precious metals sector on the LSE has fallen from a high in Feb of 18,000 to a low in July of 8940. For good or ill, XTR is part of this sector. So in comparison to that we are pretty average. Certainly if i look at the likes of the companies, which have come down by 30% or so from their peaks (and just started to recovery) it seems a reasonable fall.
XTR has been bashed a little in the last few weeks, because of sentiment, but its hard to direct much of that to Colin. TBH volume is so low that a few people selling and or buying can raise the SP or lower it, very easily.
Of course we will all have our opinions as to why, but it could be a couple of large holders needing to sell to fund a pension withdraw and have nothing to do with the company.
I am not universally happy with everything I don't think that anybody would be with any company. I do think he has over promised (I remember getting cross at one of his interviews last year). I have never brought into the Tier 1 talk and generally have lower valuations than him.
However despite all this, the company is clearly valued far far too cheaply atm.
Whether or market is holding off for actual gold production and income figures before truely valuing Manica or whether it wants to see a JORC before valuing BR, I don't know.
I've said it many times, but there is far far too much emphesis on the AA contract IMO. If we get 1m tonnes of copper we are already talking about one of the biggest undeveloped Copper-Gold projects in Australia. It won't go unnoticed imo.
But anyway, the gist of my post is that we are in the same boat as the rest of the sector. Without the need to raise funds and having no debt, it's difficult to see many of the companies in our boat being in such a good position as we are. IMO
https://www.mining.com/hundreds-of-new-mines-required-to-meet-2030-battery-metals-demand-iea-report/
Just to prove I'm not just bashing the stock.
In the last 6 months the ftse 100 dropped 1%
The Aim market dropped 15%
Xtract dropped a massive 51%
And we should blame Putin.....not Colin?
In the last month the ftse 100 has risen 7%
The aim market has risen 6%
Xtract is down 12%
And gold and copper have both risen too.
But it must be the war, inflation and commodity prices causing xtracts drop!!
Hi lucky
>How will that create value, if the share price doesn’t go up?
I would certainly hope it would at least change perception of what is still a very speculative investment for potential new investors. It will be what makes Xtract stand out in the crowd when markets turn. It will also give firm starting point in their due diligence toward a basic valuation of the company and more importantly the confidence to take a position or increase a holding knowing BR can see any final funding without dilution and be in a position to finance further long term growth as stated in audited report.
Sounds like a reasonable business plan for growth. As for the next big thing, that could be an IOCG in Zambia.
But seriously, no it’s not great we may be sitting on hands for a while, just bad luck.
Let me preface this by saying that I have great respect for both and have benefitted hugely from Icebergs knowledge and explanations
In his blog dated 30 October 2021 Iceberg compared the size of the ore body with that at Northparkes. He then went on to state that from his calculations that gave an estimate of the container copper of between 2.1 and 2.6 mt.
That was around the same time as Colin’s shareholder evening that I was not present at but has been referenced by some who were there.
Since then there have been a lot more assay results released.
Iceberg current view 1.5 -1.6 mt at Racecourse. Ie less than the 2MT buyback
And the current price of copper has (temporarily I believe) dropped to almost 50% below the preferred conceptual open pit study iteration
I doubt that a Decision to mine is realistic based on NPVs using current price of copper
So I expect the company to sit on its hands (and plan but perhaps delay implementing Phase 3 ) if it believes that the drop in copper price is temporary.
nah its not bad comms.... that Buffet is just too old and distracted with too many companys :-)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/06/legendary-investor-warren-buffetts-company-posts-44bn-loss/
"Warren Buffett’s company has fallen to a $44bn (£36bn) loss after sharp falls in stock markets took their toll on the legendary investor’s portfolio. Berkshire Hathaway recorded the $43.8bn loss in the three months to June, down from a profit of $28.1bn last year. "
I assume its a problem with their comms.... :)
Howzap, fairbride has some great revenue. With gold prices going even higher and it set to be in full production, that will mean possibly a million a month. I ask you, how will that create value? If the share price doesn't go up, how will we shareholders benefit? Colin and the team will just spend it on the next big thing. We won't get a dividend.
*steaming
"If they offered me 10p and I'll tell them where to stick it" - I think that was in response to a comment on this board? IB's ValMin valuation I think (that really got a few streaming).
We've, pretty much, got the same average but I'm sub 12e6 shares now.
Gixxer
You may be right that some would be p off even at 10p. I guess it depends on your average and number of shares you hold.
My average is 2.3p and as you know I hold in the teens of millions of shares . so I would not be unhappy at 10p but it wouldnt be what CB implied - nothing like after the "If they offered me 10p and I'll tell them where to stick it" comment
Spaceman was a legend - I wonder if he even sold his house in Wales? Ho hum....
>>Will it be embarrassing though IF we declare 1.4mt to 1.6Mt but not 2mt ? Yes CB would have been deliberately deceptive (being kind there) but that resource should see a buyout of 10p min.
It would be way below what he told the likes of CE, et al, at the AGM last year (something like 25p, 40p if you have a beer?(whatever that means)) so I'm sure a few will be pi@@ed A4444.
Many of us in agreement now that we are sitting around 1.4-1.6Mt (even our resident expert IB) ofc we all may be well out but i'm sure Bird knows exactly what we have. The question is why the delay in just publishing, as he mentioned he would ~1y ago. In the hope he gets the rest form Ascot? - He could then argue it was a misunderstanding and that he meant the whole region even though he's on camera stating it would come from RC alone.
Perhaps he's not BS'ing us; perhaps he got it right this time us and there is 2Mt+ @RC and he is holding on the 'amazing' finds at Ascot. Would love that ofc but I also feel his excitement in interviews would be brimming like in the past. It's just not though is it.....