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Although we have had promises of near term income before, I think we are much nearer to that happening now than ever before.
I see investing as a sequence of events with different levels of probability culminating in a risk / reward ratio. This then helps me determine if it’s worth investing.
With the possibility of HR income, I think we are now down to just two events required.
1. Plant to be built 2. Production starts I see the likelihood of those two events happening as 95%+ (within next 9 months)
If they do happen, then we will get a substantial increase in income which will ensure a significant increase in the SP - I would think absolute minimum rise to 3p, probably 4p and maybe more. Therefore I think there is a 95%+ chance of the SP significantly rerating over the next 9 months, maybe sooner. I dismiss CB’s timescales as they have always been inaccurate.
If I did the same analysis for the copper dumps I would calculate a significantly lower probability of income producing, as there are many more sequence of events to happen and much greater risk attached to each event. I’m not dismissing the chances of the copper dumps producing income and therefore increasing the SP at some point in the future, but due to the above factors I’m not taking the copper plays it into account…….yet.
'Xtract are currently at the sweet spot now.' I hope so, finally L250, we've been in this position before as A4444 has mentioned already tho... It's imperative that Bird really knuckles down and meets these targets running up to Q4!
So, according to Birds latest timelines we are to expect the following before Q4:
- A new Alluvial ('near the river')deal to come in play in the next few weeks. - Guy Fawkes free milling material ('discussions very advanced' with equipment already available in country). He states it shouldn't take too long to be get and running (Q3 is mentioned). - Bird expecting to transport HR equipment mid to late June with a plan to have the HR play processing towards the end of the year. - Kalengwa; All test work complete. Decision still not made regarding leasing equipment and running in house or outsourcing. Seems to be taking a while to reach a decision on this but claims it will be up and running by Q3.
Furthermore - Eureka; Bird excited with results to date. Mentions we've already had interest from 'trade'. Trenching underway already and drilling to start again soon. Seems he had no plans to work this mine but, if there is interest, will sell the licence in 1-2 years.
Certainly an RNS in the next week or so stating a 2nd Alluvial play underway would go a long way to keep the SP steady. Further ones stating GF is under and the HR plant is on route would really help boost the SP. I'm really quite interested to discover what grades they'll be pulling out of GF TBH!
Shame xtract isn't on there but an interesting watch. Xtract are currently at the sweet spot now. Xtracts sp should be double it's current value once the mine is built and producing. I will be holding out for the first revenue rns and that should see the SP at somewhere between 4-5p. It's a good time to be invested in xtract.
Nice to see the rise today. I was expecting the RNS to have more of an impact but most are obviously now aware to see past the alluvials and onto the hard rock. I think this will keep rising over the next few months as we get closer to the plant completion and the all important hard rock revenue! Onwards and upwards.
In the 1980’s, machines known as “high capacity” or “high rate” thickeners were introduced by various manufacturers. These machines are characterized by a reduction in unit area requirement for conventional installations. Here, the feed enters through a hollow drive shaft where flocculent (used to help thickening) is added and is rapidly dispersed by staged mechanical mixing. Further, this staged mixing action helps to improve and enhance thickening. This feed is then added into a blanket of slurry where the feed solids are further flocculated by contacting previously flocculated material. Since there is a direct contact between rising fluid and settling solids, which is common to most thickeners, it is averted with slurry blanket injection. There are radially mounted inclined plates which are partially submerged in the slurry blanket; the settling solids in the slurry blanket slide downwards along the inclined plates, producing faster and more effective thickening than vertical descent. Level sensor are used to automate the height of the slurry blanket.
I've been looking through the latest pics again - There's some interesting design features (for me anyway) Does anyone have xp with this type of plant? I was wandering why there are castellations/notches in the section in image 3? - The section looks too thin for sorting rock size, maybe for fluid flow?
I noticed that too NTMY. It's clear he's much more bullish on his copper plays. I have wondered if it's not specifically the metal or it's as he did not discover Manica. I get the impression he wants another big find before he retires.
I, personally, disagree with opinion with regards to the jump in copper price especially in the next three years. but then he has a **** load more xp in this area than I do!
(his views on PoG and PoC perhaps explains why he opens up by introducing xtr as a copper and gold play as opposed to a gold and copper play .. I'm not going to double guess him on either his copper or gold forward price views.. he has a lifetime of experience, after all …. )
CB did extensively cover that in the paid pod cast. What really surprised me was CB's very bearish position on POG. 14K to 17K range this year, the falling 2021 and again 2022. (in paid pod cast)
He may well be right. But he is in a very small minority thinking POG will not rise over the next few years. And he is one of only a handful of people who think POG will fall over the next few years and not break old highs.
The reason why this matters is that he may have focused more on manica and less on copper if he thought POG was going to 2500 rather than 1500.
It's not what's fully driving the SP though BB. It's just another piece of negative news and excuses for delay that we've been hearing for the past 6 years +.
I came across an XTR twitter post from 2017 last night, Bird was claiming back then that he was expecting $300k a month income by the end of the year.....Well, we're still waiting to see those figures and it well be 2021 before they are seen in Xtract's bank account!
The 'little disappointing' comment was lifted from the RNS yesterday - which made me chuckle due to CBs understatement.
We may well get a few more 'little disappointing' news events over the next 6 months - no doubt some will be CBs failed timescales. But in all the years I have been in this, I have never been more confident that the future looks bright. That is nearly all down (imo) to the HR plant which I see as having a 99% chance of being built therefore there is a 99% chance of massive increase in income therefore 99% of SP rerating within the next 9 months.
I see all the other possible income streams as just that - potential which may or may not happen.