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Hi Howezap,
If it goes to 3rd phase, the SP will likely fall? If so where is the opportunity to exit?
F100
Thanks. I do plan just to hold and see what happens. I bought my first XTR shares for the Julia Creek oil shale in either 2007 or 2008. Oil was running out and shale was the future. Took 15 years to come true even if not for JC. Dieselgate did the same for platinum and JLP. At the moment I just hope Colin doesn't let his enthusiasm for buying up the worlds copper exploration plays and waits for the cash to arrive from Fairbride first. (sorry for off topic).
Exactly flipper, the objective of phase 2 has always been to prove up 2mtCuEq and or the decision to mine, to then see what Anglo wants to do with it. I don’t believe this has changed, in worst case, the extended phase 2 drill program was potentially because the target was not met from racecourse alone, which is maybe why it was extended. There was a recent comment from Colin that he thinks the 2 million ton will come from racecourse and doesn’t think they’ll need it to come from Ascot, also the more we drill the more value is added so that is interesting so maybe not a worst case. But generally, there has been no reason to believe at this stage that the objective has changed to approach AA if targets have been met, and then some.
What they decide to do next will be in shareholders best interest of course.
But I think once resource models are out, there will be an opportunity for shareholders to consider an exit strategy if this has all been too much and want out if this is going into a 3rd phase. But certainly don’t be hasty.
I thought the plan was simple. Prove up BR. Hopefully reach 2mt and sell it. Return cash to shareholders. Seemed simple to me and the reason I invest is to hopefully make a return.
Now I have no idea what the plan is. Great for debating on a bb but not financially rewarding. And I have not the faintest idea whether copper will be $3 or $6 a Ib next year or maybe both. Could wake up tomorrow and find AA has put in an offer for the company at a 30% premium to the current shareprice !!. Time will tell how this goes.
Thanks for the reply IWTO.
I would only repeat what I had said before that xtract are not proving up the resource toward the actual extraction and production process, but with more a view to a marketing perspective. They simply need minimum of 2mtCuEq and or decision to mine to get AA interested or not. That will open the door to eventual sale dependant on their decision of course. Quite irrelevant at what depths mineralisation starts at Ascot. One of the last holes into Ascot was to the south to no doubt follow the trend of shallower mineralisation the further south though if I recall.
I think there is a general underestimation of what could be on the table, there is about 15 furlongs of mineralisation from both RC and Ascot.
Lol Just come back from site in anticipation to hopefully join the long and intense debate, I had wondered why that one didn’t even get a nibble! For a brief time I thought maybe the site was down Ok that was my second poke at a response with that thought, I’ll file that one away now in the ‘repetitive parsley’ pile.
Cheers lucky laughed out loud at that.
Howezap, of those choices I’d struggle to say I am even in the “Camp Realistic” at the moment. I say that because I have no clue whatsoever how large the Ascot resource is. Apart from the discovery hole and perhaps one other, the results so far seem rather iffy. Further - whilst Ascot wouldn’t have capital costs to cover there would be plenty of stripping required, and also the joint processing plant would have to be very large because I can see RC fully utilising it for 25 years anyway. (Unless Ascot is left intact, to be mined way into the future when, no doubt, copper will be $20/lb!). So whilst additional Ascot tonnage is very helpful, I’m just not sure that it’s as valuable as if it were all found in RC alone.
Having said all the above, good P3 results from Ascot - perhaps even to the point where it’s a second RC, or smaller version - would make a huge difference. That’s why I believe we need a P3. I’m not too bothered about the other outcrops, though it can’t hurt to sink a few exploratory holes.
And it was at 10:19 when even howezap realised even the biggest of xtract's optimists get bored of talking about the optimistic scenario's in which the story will unfold......(said in a David Attenborough voice)
* A sale sooner rather than later because of the plans for strategically growing the company, not because of my suggestion to jump now as their is potential increase of struggling deposit owners. ;-)
Thanks Andy I was looking at your 3rd point you made there.
Considering they are pursuing these further projects, although the plan to search for deposits with a certain criteria. One being they will not be front heavy capital investment, it would still potentially put a lot of strain on the treasury particularly if going into a what appears to be a fairly comprehensive sounding, 3rd exploration/ definition phase at BR.
Anyone have any idea as to a ball park figure of capital outlay for one of these type deposits,
Safe jurisdiction
Shallow ore body
Near final production ready
Within 2 years to develop
Nearby local plant
Up to 5 year LOM
Up to 50,000tpa
Don’t sound particularly cheap to be worthwhile.
I suggested before that with BR on its books for another 6-12 months it could seriously impact plans for strategic growth over the longer term.
I would not be surprised if BR has had all the focus now spent on it and it is time to move it on.
It’s not my agenda, I would be happy to wait longer for a bigger asset. Also be happy for an earlier sale by year end or after.
With income now from fairbride to pay toward further exploration and plant mods (next year) and once Eureka is bringing in cash it will then be positioned for further exploration phase there too.
It they push on now, there will be even greater potential that more of these small deposit owners are left in a difficult position in this climate to get the funding to enable that last push to development stage.
What do others think on a sale of BR sooner rather than later in lieu of the plans to search and develop these other small JV’s?
Similar thoughts howezap on questions not related to the raft of questions on Bushranger and comms:
1. XTR has several exploration options - what is priority ? Either Manica, Eureka, EL5574 or other Oz licences? How would income from Manica be allocated to exploration ?
2. Timescale and potential for revenue at Eureka ?
3. I feel they should focus on what they already have and not go after new projects eg until BR sold - I'm sure there are other opinions especially Colin who thrives on new projects...
Other matters
Quarterly gold reports not fit for purpose and don't reconcile for last 2 years to annual reports.
Some good news might get soon for the investors that are considering what to do post BR conclusion, that follows longer term plans for strategic growth as the company search for deposits that are not high CapEx and are within a couple of years production ready. Colin first mentioned taking on a couple of JV’s last AGM , “ to help toward the drilling efforts in Oz” They have picked up Chongwe, but I do hope Racecourse/Ascot are not still on the books in another 2years!
>>The company is examining a number of exciting opportunities in the small copper and gold sector and look forward to reporting progress during the 3rd quarter.
Further growth to come from exploration to extend mine life and plant mods next year at Fairbride. Whilst in Zambia there is potential to increase the deposit and mine size to north west and at depth. With an agreement in place with a local processing plant to take the ore and once producing, their is further exploration to follow on in deep drilling of a partially oxidised zone that suggests the IOCG theory.
Be good to get some idea at AGM of what will become of the remaining licenses in the BR copper gold project post sale
Add to the million other questions maybe.
Any other thoughts?
Nice idea IWTO, we can take your idea a bit further
What camp are you in?
Camp optimism -
Closer to 2mtCuEq will be modelled from racecourse alone. With further gold, silver and moly having a very positive effect on financial model for Ascot, with its outer margins defined and tipping the scales at around the 450-500mt mark, total resource up to 1bt , multi mineralised, multi porphyry system with further outlying anomalies confirmed to be mineralised shown from phase 3.
Value - top dollar!
Camp that’ll do -
As above with a 3rd phase under its belt but with only up to 1.5mtCuEq from RC total 750mt resource
Value - big bucks
Camp realistic -
+/- 1.5mtCuEq modelled from RC with Ascot having to bulk up the rest. Adequate resource modelled from Ascot to cover any shortfall. Multi mineralised multi porphyry system like Cadia still, but decided not to embark on a planned 3rd phase so approx 750m of strike at Ascot that takes both models comfortably over the 2mt threshold.
Value - fair value
The latter could be conceivable if the statement in the yearly report is to be understood that the project will be actively marketed starting with contacting AA.
>>The phase 2 exploration programme is about to be completed and when we have modelled and evaluated all the raw information, we will be well advanced on the value curve and able to position the project in the global market.<<
It may simply mean that as the resource models will be in place, AA will then be in a position to consider making an offer as xtract just sit on the planning of a 3rd phase as suggested by Steve 4077 placing the onus at first on AA
Thanks for your answers, all. FWIW I also think the resource will be economic at a medium-long term copper price and worth well above the current sp, so a clear hold until a buyer emerges.
Going back to previous comments about racecourse model being done by next month was just considering this statement from the yearly report. It implies that both models will be released at the same time, so that would potentially be around late sept, early October very minimum.
>>Upon the return of all remaining assay results from the Phase Two Drilling Programme at Racecourse and Ascot, a new resource model for both prospects will be developed.
Maybe keep expectations in check
Tbh I'm not that bothered, within reason, about exact tonnage re long term situation. Yes, a low tonnage short term would mean CB has been deliberately deceptive after all his comments and the buy-out would be much less than he has implied (IMHO).
However, assuming CB is not a charlatan or a complete idiot, it will be above 1mt (at very least) and that will have value, so I would not sell but wait until the buy-out was agreed, which will be at a premium to SP. So best SP would be at buy-out price so dont sell before then is my approach.
If no major thinks its economical at whatever tonnage we get (above 1mt), then I would just wait, as I think the increasing copper price will, at some point, make whatever we have very economical in time. That's in the very unlikely event it isnt economical after resource model is declared.
If that was the case, again, just wait for the buy-out (now at a much later date than expected) which again should be at premium to SP.
Due to FB income we have optionality and that includes the option of just waiting for copper price to make the resource economical (IF it isnt after model but that is very unlikely). Similar to land banking an asset waiting for the market to make the resource more valuable.
A rather a long winded answer to your question.
In short, don't sell, but wait a bit for the buy-out offer or (if we have to) wait a bit longer for copper price to rise and for the much later buy-out.
That's going to be my approach - which may well prove to be the completely wrong approach !
I think it's way more than 1MT... but concede it might be a good bit short of 2MT (for Racecourse alone).
Would I sell up? Of course not.... 1% value of 1MT at a copper price of $10,000/te is already 10p.... and I cant see us only achieving 1% value,nor only 1MT, plus we have Ascot to be JORC'd, plus other anomalies in the area to be investigated.
If it was only 1MT the impact for me would be a lowering of my slicing point only (and a renewed attempt at tempering Colins enthusiastic interviews when I hear them).
GLA
IWTO. I’ve been a holder for over 2 yrs. I’d love 2Mt+, but even 1Mt will see this being a highly desirable ore body, and will be sold. So I envisage a few multiples of the current share price, at worst, with the potential for much more. So, I’m happy to wait now for the end-game on the disposal of Racecourse.
1.7mt is my prediction
Can’t sell below my average so would be unhappy
Decent move today x5 to come
F100
Ok, so it’d be good to get a sense of how people will feel about the forthcoming Racecourse JORC when it’s revealed. I’m on record as saying I think it’s > 1Mt of Cu, maybe 1.25 Mt but well below 2Mt. If that were the case would you be comfortable? Very unhappy? And would you buy, sell or hold your shares?
And confirmation of full production at Manica. That should be due very soon? As was mentioned earlier this should really put a floor (higher than we are now) on the share price. Confirmation of full production, plus results of a quarter year of sustained revenue, may be required to tempt investors (back?) in? And possibly quieten that incessant bleating about placings.
The price extensions are rather poor indeed....not for xtr but for the market makers.
It looks like they basically have SFA shares and don't want to keep any as a way of reducing risk.
It means they take it down and up really really quickly, then have to use auctions to try and level the market again.
I know this happens occasionally but it should be with volume 5 or 10x this.
Oh well, we've got some assays at ascot to come...gold production figures and the reveal of the jorc.
" if Colin releases some excellent news or we enter negotiations. I would hazard a guess we have more than 35 trades and more than 7 large ish buys."
Yes, and all those SH who would love to buy more now but don't currently have the money available - would suddenly find the money...and quickly :)
15% up driven by 7 medium to large trades. (Around £10k+).
3 of 250,000, nice round figures. Someone accumulating? Imagine what could happen if Colin releases some excellent news or we enter negotiations. I would hazard a guess we have more than 35 trades and more than 7 large ish buys.
Well that was a better day than we've had for some while, and all because a big fish decided to try and take out a tiddler. Personally was hoping the price would stay low so that I can dip in again when some cash is freed up but I'm not complaining!