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Hi Cygnus thank you for the numbers, it’s certainly reassuring as there is plenty of wiggle room to be further conservative in the ranges.
Jeremy Reid stated in ascot webinar at the very end that the deposit would need to show about 400-450mt to yield 2mt cu at 0.44%cu average. There is certainly no reason to doubt his perception.
As for this latest estimate for anticipated grades it is clearly for the deposit and not for just the higher grade part.
>>Four master composite samples of quartered drill core were prepared, based upon a geographic location within the Racecourse and Ascot deposits, namely Racecourse Central, Racecourse North-West, Racecourse South-East and Ascot
· The samples were representative of the anticipated average copper grade of the deposit, ranging from 0.33-0.48% Cu, with………….<<<
Hi Fos,
"What is the assumption at the extreme lower end .33"?
I can't answer that. Due to the vagaries of the data with grades waxing and weaning over the resource I have simply made the assumption that the mean grade is .4% which I have said, I think is a tad too high. If that is true then it is likely that we will undershoot the 2MT mark although Footrot is likely to bring us above that figure - and Andy4444 said earlier this morning.
Hi CY
What is the assumption at the extreme lower end .33?
F100
"Shouldnt that be: A Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush-ranger."
Of course!
"I'm wondering if this is an assumed grade for the really useful parts of the pit and that most will not reach this high a grade".
Yes, because none of the assays received this year support those levels of average grades, away from the really useful parts of the put.
Howezap,
I have plugged some numbers into my own model although I must say that I'm surprised that the average Cueq grade is as high as stated in the last RNS:
"The samples were representative of the anticipated average copper grade of the deposit, ranging from 0.33-0.48% Cu, with minor silver (1.1g/t to 3.3g/t) and trace gold (0.007g/t to 0.04g/t), other than the more gold-rich Ascot sample which assayed 0.30g/t Au <<<
If I assume that the grade in 0.4%, that the length of RC is 2 km, the width is 500 m and the depth (width of ore) is 400 m and I assume the pit is a regular V shape I get 540MT resource with 2.16 MT of Cu. But again, I'm surprised (and pleased) to hear that the average grade is .33 to .48%. I'm wondering if this is an assumed grade for the really useful parts of the pit and that most will not reach this high a grade. Still, we will soon see.
"Just a few weeks ago some were saying they would snap CBs hand off for 10p :)"
I still would, as things stand.
Shouldnt that be:
A Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush-ranger.
A Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
That just sprang to mind as a response, and seems somehow apt.
"I could see CB wanting to continue drilling if there was reason to believe that there were any more higher grade areas in the licence."
If it was "quick wins" in very short time then maybe, but the driver has to be time v reward. If it was all about the reward then we should not be selling the licence and try and build the mine ourselves. You can then forget about 30p or 40p buy-out, it would an sp of £3 to £5.
What a great way to celebrate CB's 100th birthday :)
Interesting how sentiment changes. Just a few weeks ago some were saying they would snap CBs hand off for 10p :)
I could see CB wanting to continue drilling if there was reason to believe that there were any more higher grade areas in the licence.
I would like to hear more detail on the longer term plans for Manica.
"Andrew - I think your 1 & 2 can both be true at the same time"
You could be right in theory but I don't think that would be the case in practise. To avoid confusion I was only referring to the current model and not any other licences .
I guess it also depends on what the threshold is of "Giving away another cadia" For me that would be 3mt +. Anything in the 2mt range would not be that much more than CB's previous indications - but obviously a bit better.
Others may have different thresholds and criteria for that.
I agree with you and also think we are going to be under 2mt at the moment, maybe 1.5 or 1.6mt. But I can't see how we are going to move from 1.6mt now to over 3mt, and that would have to happen (imho) for both my options to be correct.
In addition, I would think CB would draw a line under this at 2mt to 2.5mt. More drilling would see a greater resource yes, but that would take more time and he has indicated this will "not go on for years".
So yes both options could be right, but I would be amazed if CB has the time or determination to try and nearly double the current tonnage and keep on drilling and adding to the current model way past 3mt.
So my best guess is that it's probably option 2
Thanks Andy..... problem with so much communication over the past 18 months..... its hard to drillback to the particular one that is needed for a given issue.
I'll have another watch over lunch.
We have just been offered the single most important piece of the jigsaw for the Racecourse model, the average grade anticipated to be between .33 and .48%cu
>>> The samples were representative of the anticipated average copper grade of the deposit, ranging from 0.33-0.48% Cu, with minor silver (1.1g/t to 3.3g/t) and trace gold (0.007g/t to 0.04g/t), other than the more gold-rich Ascot sample which assayed 0.30g/t Au <<<
We have a good idea of strike length, width and deposit depth ( not the anticipated pit depth )
The economic cut off we could assume 0.15cu and so working on those grades ranges where is the rock tonnage and disposition now.
Could I now hand over to one of our resident number crunchers if any are willing to offer up.
It will surely lead to a more realistic ‘guess’ if only to see it realistically being more then 1.5mt than less than that.
As Stevemocal suggests, If it is in line with Colin’s estimate for racecourse then that leaves a big chunk of extra value to be added from Ascot and current multi porphyry potential.
Awww Steve (little cry face emoji) are we no longer able to discuss things without getting upset someone else has a different view?
Joeman
I think its this one from Dec 21 you are referencing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ8b--rhvRI
Always worth another watch !
Colin is playing stud poker with AA and the market. Just ask him how many ace's he holds we know what the stakes are. Place your bets.
Ok James, first technical session might be wrong but there has been a technical session taking us through the model with more than just the historic drills and recent (within weeks) assay results included.
And the comment made (apologies but this will be paraphrasing) was that as asssy results come in the modeller is adding them to the model and so this can be turned around quickly.
A list for AGM I compiled a while ago. I don't imagine I'll have to ask all of them...
Thoughts on questions for AGM
1. Bushranger what is timescale for RC model and Ascot if separate timeline. What happened to last timetable!
2. Does he still stand by comments that "it's not a 10p porphyry" eg £100million. How would he compare it to other recent sales eg Josemaria $485m
3. What are next steps and timeline for Ascot - is comparison with Cadia potential valid e.g statements made on 39 assays on 27 May "similar characteristics to the discovery of the deeper, gold-rich Ridgeway deposit, which is a part of the Cadia-Ridgeway group of porphyry deposit"
4. Details of buyback agreement eg whole of 5574 or RC only. If whole of licence then how will value be attributed to Ascot and Footrot.
5. If we declare 2MT then what happens ? Try and assess confidence about achieving 2MT and from just RC. What if we are at 1.9MT ? What are the steps and timelines to trigger decision to mine, how would funding issue be addressed?
6. XTR has several exploration options - what is priority ? Either Manica, Eureka, EL5574 or other Oz licences? How would income from Manica be allocated to exploration ?
7. Timescale and potential for revenue at Eureka ?
8. Quarterly gold reports not fit for purpose and don't reconcile for last 2 years to annual reports. Need segregation of different hard rock agreements, closing gold stock and transparency on how operating costs at Fairbride are determined and reported.
9. Need to improve comms and investor info eg Kalengwa still on website etc....
10. Focus on what they already have and not go after new projects
Hi Joeman
From memory the first technical session was just based on existing resource e.g. P1 holes weren’t included.
Cheers
James
Andrew - I think your 1 & 2 can both be true at the same time.
I personally think RC is probably shy of the 2mt threshold that gives AA a guaranteed opportunity to buyback. But not by much and it seems nailed on that Ascot and other prospects on the licence will see us smashing through that target.
We should also remember that the buy-back clause only applied to the EL5574 licence. There is no buy-back terms for the other surrounding licences and if they want them too (hard to imagine them not) then it is a straight negotiation and I'd be expecting CB to command a pretty penny for them. If they don't want to pay a hansom premium for them (to avoid missing other targets and potentially inviting a competitor into their backyard) then we could always keep them as the next exploration project and do it all again!
My guess is that the model has needed to be more comprehensive than originally planned as it will be for an open market.
I understand the story has been spun a little on the model....however.
They can't hide from the fact that the first technical session on Racecourse included the model and assay results received only a couple of weeks earlier.
So, might need a bit more explanation this time if the model STILL isn't ready.
I would say its definitely option C.
But the more pertinent question would be - why is it not finished yet?
Either:
1. Because we are still finding more tonnage and dont want to "give away a cadia" so the model keep getting bigger
or
2. The current model tonnage is significantly lower than CB's implications and comments, so we are doing more drilling which means the model is not finished yet.
I've said before, I don't think we will get the model for sometime.
Maybe, instead of a blockbuster RNS, on Bushranger, before the AGM, we will get the Q2 gold production numbers instead - which should be encouraging by themselves?