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Dollar to pound could go to 1.05 which is 32% extra. 26.4/33/39.6p plus ascot,foot rot and other anomalies. Plus the additional revenue from manica.
Showing everyone this so that when it comes time to sell bushranger, you can look back and see if Colin was telling the truth about 20/25/30p.
I don't want all the additional waiting and drilling for Colin to just get 20p and then say 'I told you so'
Back when Colin said we will sell it for 20/25/30p the pound to dollar Was about 1.38. Its now 1.16.
That 20% more for us.
So it's now 24/30/36p
that's before the ascot discovery and extra drilling and more anomalies to check.
Looking forward to my 50p a share Colin, happy to take 20p now though. Need to pay the energy bill.
Thanks. Interesting observations. Shows how quickly it can happen. The grades are impressive but as you say, Oz is a safer location and current grades are generally lower. If AA aren't interested I am sure the Chinese will snap it up.
I am happy to just sit back and wait it out. Still hope for that big payout, preferably gold but cash would be acceptable !.
With the recent slide in the pound compared to the dollar, I had a little think about how this might impact us and a potential buyout. First, we are making more from Manica due to a more favourable exchange.
Second, I had a quick look at Kiwara's news releases way back in 2009 to see a) the exact exchange rate at the time of the buy out by First Quantum, b) how quickly significant news led to official confirmation of buyout and c) the size of the actual resource
In turn:
a) Unsurprisingly, the situation has changed significantly and in our favour.
The magic figure of $260m back then was worth 157.6m GBP. Now that 260m US is worth 225.75 GBP, a 43% markup on the exchange 13 years ago. We are not only getting more from our gold production, but should an international buy out take place, we may benefit from the weaker pound. (I don't see the pound getting any stronger in the near future, but there are many better placed to give their opinion on this).
b) Re timings and speed of sale. On 5 October 2009, Kiwara hired consultants to conduct a pre-feasibility study based on an inferred resource of 340million tonnes @ 0.78 (using a 0.55% cut off!). On 21 October 2009, Kiwara then announced the results of an infill programme (where have we heard this before!) with some pretty impressive shallow mineralisation (including 20.4m grading 0.94% Cu from 12.8m (!) and 45.6m also grading 0.94% Cu from 167.6m. This was one of 4 drills hitting impressive copper.
One month and two days later, the company was sold. The pre-feasibility study hadn’t been finished or published. From news of the buyout on 23 November 2009, it took around two months for Kiwara to cease trading on 28 January, the following year.
c) In terms of the resource, the Resource Estimation Report was published two months prior to a sale (https://investegate.co.uk/kiwara-plc--kiw-/rns/kalumbila-resource-update/200909020800013638Y/ )
In short, it was a big one. We now know it’s one of the world’s biggest mines but the indications were there in 2009. 1.45bn tonnes @ 0.76%. 3.76bn tonnes @ 0.37%.
Some musings: The stories are similar. Resource estimate published in September. Infill drilling programme. Kalumbila was evidently much bigger but copper price was (as far as I can see) just under 7k /tonne on the day the sale was announced (it had more than doubled from lows during the financial crisis – I remember Colin saying at the AGM that he sold at the right time!) We are, however, in a much better jurisdiction. As Colin said, things move quickly. I believe him when he says that AA might not want BR and there may well be other customers waiting in the wings. What will be interesting is something else he alluded to: the idea of being a 200m company. Does he want to sell off BR for a dividend and keep Xtract going or sell the whole of Xtract?
For info, I have used the link below which details all of Kiwara’s old RNSs. https://investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&wo
Good stuff Cygnus the only thing I would tend do disagree on is sitting on hands tho.
Being in recessionary times, does not mean that M&A’s will not happen, where one, or any of the majors are concerned it will be an ideal time to jump, wether it be AA, or other once we get the agreement out the way.
Businesses are, or should be, examining their existing lists of potential acquisition targets and should be prepared to act, as deal premiums maybe likely to come down and assets that companies had been reluctant to sell in the past may become available. As in xtract’s case with its primary asset being under the confines of the buy back agreement.
>>Evidence from the global financial crisis from late 2007 through early 2009 shows that companies that made significant acquisitions during an economic downturn outperform those that did not.
There are some caveats: The GFC was, as its name indicates, a financial crisis, and was somewhat limited to the financial services and real estate sectors. << But it is the nearest example there is.
I believe Xtract will have a fairly decisive plan what to do with Bushranger and if that is to actively market it once the models are released (as per paragraph in annual report RNS) then that along with Colin’s “being happy with an $8000 copper price” will not see a shortage of willing buyers.
Steve4077’s post notes from the AGM (24 Aug 2022 09:56) do suggest they will be actively marketing too, as soon as the modelling is announced, then after speaking to AA it seems, entering into more drilling, at first to improve the IRR with higher grade at RC then other targeted areas sequentially. With a further comment from Steves notes on Colin
>> Again reading between the lines, it sounds like informal contacts may have already happened. Colin made it clear that when a deal happens, it can happen quickly.
If there is a fair value to be had it will be got. The actual sale process going foreword I don’t believe has been affected so far beyond the 2-4 month delay in RC modelling by any of the external factors……..yet!
Howezap & Zaph,
This is currently something of a 'wilderness time' where we simply need to wait until the model(s) and results are ready and the market turns. To think that all can create a perfect storm and arrive at the same time is a tad fanciful but CB, with African income is in a position to say that by looking forward both the price of Cu and the market will be far more attractive to XTR and hence we can, if necessary sit on our hands. I know that's not what many (most) want but it may well pressure AA, or another, to increase their bid for our assets when the market sentiment does not reflect such an offer. Also, during this time if XTR initiates phase 3 then the resource and the price will only increase leading to more pressure for a prospective new owner to make an offer. So, having been used to watching XTR like a hawk I will have to get used to things moving a little slower but there is the prospect of picking up more shares as the sp will drift during this time. It is AIM after all.
Good post at 20:54 last night howezap. I normally try not to post in the absence of news but it is easy to see that in the current negative economic and geopolitical conditions that sentiment is in the doldrums and hence so is the sp. However, I have plans to sell exactly zero shares, and I am pretty excited about news over the next few months. Usually when I have been impatient I have lost out on big gains so I am trying to develop more Zen-like qualities during this market turmoil.
GLA all and have a good day fellow Xtractors.
Hi Ben
Of them last lot of holes in phase 2, Holes 47 through to 52 tested the ground between Ascot and Racecourse, the southern extents of Ascot (52), and further defined the structure and extent of mineralisation in the central mineralised zone surrounding hole 35. >>They all intersected extensive zones of altered volcanics with trace, to locally weak to strong porphyry-related mineralisation throughout. << Then we had the couple of extra infill drills into RC that assays were turned around quick for, followed up by the very last hole into Ascot that was to test for the extension of mineralisation beneath hole 35 at depth, which subject to assays could add 100m of mineralisation with higher copper and gold tenor to the current known depth.
Going by the core analysis that was given, they don’t appear to be disappointing or not great. I also believe it would have been thought that maybe the very last hole in the programme was going to be the one down the throat, but they appear not to have done that exactly, maybe concentrating more on the structure of the main body with the gold shoots found in hole 39 maybe suspected to extend at depth below, and what has been tagged with hole 55?
We do know that a follow up phase however, will target the higher grade gold intersections, which would include the deep system (39) the outlying anomaly that assayed 2m @ 15.5g/t Au (33) along with the gold at shallower depths at both RC and Ascot.
Don’t forget Footrot test holes as well - really looking forward to seeing them.
Not expecting any of these until end of Sept at the earliest or silence if they’re poor.
The calm before the storm. (I'm sure I've said this before). Björk is in town singing her favourite number.
Anyway, it's been a long while since the outstanding holes were completing. Bearing in mind we have the assays back from 53 and 54 (the final RC holes), it doesn't take a genius to work out 47, 48, 49 and 50 were more than likely not amazing. 53 and 54 were released 35 days ago. So which is it? Not great or holding back?
Intrigued by 49 though, why continue for 915m if it wasn't interesting.
Also need to hear back from the follow up to the 35m of gold we hit earlier, the drill iceberg described as "down the throat".
Shhhhhhhhh !
bit quiet here today
Sorry, not exactly relevant to xtract directly, but more toward the future of the mining industry. Particularly in Australia, that although are very tolerant of mining, they also have some of the most stringent environmental legislation in the world. It is this type of energy transition solution that will be a requirement for permits to be authorised in the coming years.
>>Certainly one way is through innovations in renewables and battery storage solutions, on site modular electrolysers up to 100MW that convert water to Hydrogen using renewable energy from on site wind and solar power, could well be one solution that will fuel the machines that extract and transfer the ore and also fuel the production processes and facilities.<<
The very latest technologically advanced modular units use ‘only’ renewable energy. One in particular with it’s very own patented technology, ‘Proton Exchange Membrane.’ An advanced technology that converts to green Hydrogen in either Gas or liquid form. So it can even be used for grid balancing too by release into the gas pipeline, used as clean vehicle fuel, or in a host of industrial processes, significantly reducing emissions in logistics and heavy industry. As they can be switched on within seconds, PEM electrolysers have the edge in being able to rapidly react to fluctuations typical of renewable power generation. In comparison, the start-up time for alkaline water electrolysis is around an hour, making the latest technology ideally suited for grid balancing and meeting energy deficits too. A big tick toward those approvals.
The tech does not need to play catch-up to meet the clean energy demands of different industries, it is already in place now and appears to be a perfect solution for the mining industry.
The April May June target was kind of blown out the water with the analysis of Ascot showing multi porphyry potential. As it did too in relation to, supporting the earlier analysis from some assays at RC that showed deeper intersections of copper, pointing to further porphyry below the main body there.
It’s not difficult to understand the decision to extend drilling in phase 2 in what is an evolving understanding of the geology and what that implies to how they go about the resource building to get the project in the best possible position to achieve maximum value down the line.
Talking about a sale is a bit premature anyway considering we haven’t had the updated for RC and the initial resource estimate for Ascot yet. So it ‘is’ fair to be realistic in just hoping the company deliver on that first.
Let’s see where it sits first, then we can all reset once again. Looking forward to the ‘told you so’s and of course, the Doh’s’ But at least will all be on the same page………. well, for a day or two at least.
"Realistically what we can hope for at this stage after waiting all this time, is there are no delays in the models finally being released."
Hahaha ha is that comment supposed to be a joke?
Actually howzap, some believed it would be sold in May/June. If you want to talk about misleading maybe you should call Colin out on his misleading!!!
And I said October or November.
Well howzap that's how I perceived it. They will trigger the decision to mine and AA have 30 days to buy it or leave it...... maybe buy it if!!
I'm saying Colin and the team won't do it when they said because AA will have to make the decision with copper prices low and that's not ideal especially with a recession that everyone and his dog can see coming. Copper goes down with a recession but this time I think it will only drop so far because chine as o e example will start buying and hoarding it.
That would be a little misleading to suggest some believe it will be sold in October. His comments just support that maybe, they will be actively getting the modelling finished to get it in front of AA and as per Steve’s AGM feedback notes to get their first rights of refusal options out the way as soon as they can. I’m sure there are some that are ‘hopeful’ of a sale in Q4, Colin is still probably one of them! But believing is a bit different to be fair.
Realistically what we can hope for at this stage after waiting all this time, is there are no delays in the models finally being released.
Lucky520
Posted in: XTR
Posts: 1,609
Price: 3.95
No Opinion
RE: Empress Royalty update re Manica10 Aug 2021 11:20
It will be Q4 2022 lol
Looks like this week is the start of the fall from the bear market rally. We are heading into a massive recession. Copper will fall over the next month or so but it will recover quickly and we will see all time highs next year, hopefully in the first quarter. The gold price will drop too but that will turn quickly as it does in recession.
For the reasons above, I do not see bushranger being sold in October or November as some believe, I don't think it will be the best time to maximise value.
I dont buy Colin's suggestion that the Chinese manipulated the lockdown to put a lid on inflation.... personally think that's a crazy suggestion.
But what is certain, China used some of their strategic reserves to take the heat out of the copper spike earlier this year (that exercise failed to do more than pause the price when it was rising), and now that the price has dropped back down to current levels there is evidence that they are buying more than their (current) demand.
If China are refilling these reserves at todays prices it tells you where they think the price is heading from here........ Up!
GLA
Colin with Zak on Friday on one of his other company updates. He speaks openly on copper and china. Stating the Chinese, ‘They couldn’t suppress it for very long , and I see it now creeping forward now at 8.2 8.3 and that’s a very healthy price, and it’ll do for me in any of our projects…………… anything over 8000 in todays economics is a good price.”
It’s a strong signal at least, they are comfortable to actively market Bushranger as implied in year report when modelling is ready for the market after a full phase 2 assessment and evaluation.
Come midweek, that’s August done and dusted, where did that go!? We are talking in weeks not months now to see the results of all the hard work over the past 18 odd months. Finally, where the project sits in terms of scale and the overall quality of the data that will be presented.
So I think from his comments at least it does suggest they are not likely to be dragging their heels to get to that position as was a suggestion that they might do while they wait for copper to recover back up to the levels before the slump.
From 8min30sec
Xtract are not mentioned at any time btw. But his comments above are no doubt toward all his other companies copper projects. Although I can’t help feeling he was thinking of BR to some degree!
https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hdWRpb2Jvb20uY29tL2NoYW5uZWxzLzUwNTExMzMucnNz&episode=dGFnOmF1ZGlvYm9vbS5jb20sMjAyMi0wOC0yNjovcG9zdHMvODE0NjUwOQ%3D%3
* I am not invested in any other Colin bird companies and have only posted the link to support my post.
Even the very industry that will be relied upon to delivery the huge rise in copper demand and other battery metals is driving the need for change to a cleaner, more efficient and sustainable alternative to fossil fuels.
Over the decades, global copper production has roughly doubled every 25 years since data started being recorded. To meet the increasing demands for metals has already made the mining industry one of the most energy-intensive industrial sectors. Let alone going into the next few decades of global electrification. According to the International Energy Agency, between 8% and 10% of the world total energy consumption is dedicated to the extraction of materials that society demands, and that number does not take into account metallurgical processes, transport and other mining-related activities.
That is an incredible statistic that I came across, that needs to be reduced in future mining projects if the new discoveries and even previously shelved mines, are going to socially and environmentally acceptable, above being viable.
Certainly one way is through innovations in renewables and battery storage solutions, on site modular electrolysers up to 100MW that convert water to Hydrogen using renewable energy from on site wind and solar power, could well be one solution that will fuel the machines that extract and transfer the ore and also fuel the production processes and facilities.
The industry will need to play its own part too if it is to supply the increasing demand to help the world decarbonise and achieve net-zero. Copper will be at the heart of it all.
Right*.... oh the irony haha