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>>>the junior sector is pulling back, spending less and guarding what cash they have. The juniors are "...doing what they've always done. They're canceling financings. They're decreasing the amount of drill rigs they're using. They're just...waiting until this is over. And, I don't see much on the horizon that might change<<<
What we are likely to see is a good window of opportunity when the time is right to push on with the flood of news that will be due. There will a lot less activity in the sector and a ‘lag’ before these bring their operations back online again so news when released will hopefully get more exposure and focus as the market look for good opportunities to get back in early. Assay labs will be quieter too.
Unfortunately Joe. my timescale predictions have always been wrong.
My supposed pessimistic timescales have always be proven to be very optimistic !
I hate that you have been right to be pessimistic on timescales before Andrew, however im hoping that the fact that whoever buys Bushranger, it will still be years before they get it into production..... So THEY cant really afford to be coy.
That said, Ill be a lot happier when the model update is released and we finally know what we are selling.
i must admit i'm a bit top heavy in exploration companies at the moment but it does seem to be staring me in the face that there is going to be a lot of copper etc needed over the next few years.(i was buying sovereigns at £64 a go when gordon was selling our gold).
roll on monday
"They're just...waiting until this is over. And, I don't see much on the horizon that might change."
My previous estimate for buy-out time horizon was Q1/Q2 2023. With what is coming on a world macro level I suspect the commodity market will be very bearish for a year or so. I would be very surprised if CB wanted to do a deal in that environment so we may may have to wait longer for the buy-out.
It would not have surprised me if we drifted down to circa 3p or just below if we had not got the FB first income results due by end of the year. I suspect those pending results will ensure the sp stays at circa 3.5p and put a floor under any drop?
May see a spike to 4.5p to 5p after release of FB first income?
There appear to be many macro events similarities to the 1970s and that saw a bull run in commodities after the storm was over so we may find ourselves in a major bull commodity run in the second half of 2023? I now suspect that's when the buy-out will be.
With FB income we can just sit this out and wait for the optimum time to sell. The only down side is we may have to wait longer than we thought and indeed longer than we wanted to.
Just a thought....CB is 80 in Nov 2023. What a way to bow out:)
quiet here again , what's happened to iceberg . i need a bit of reassurance.
Fortunately, we are one of the very few junior exploration companies that can be self-financing.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-09-01/-We-re-back-to-2015-Soar-Financial-Group-s-Kai-Hoffmann-on-a-bleak-junior-resource-sector.html
To adapt Hoffmann observed that the junior sector is pulling back, spending less and guarding what cash they have. The juniors are "...doing what they've always done. They're canceling financings. They're decreasing the amount of drill rigs they're using. They're just...waiting until this is over. And, I don't see much on the horizon that might change."
Had followed the Mankayan project for a while a long time ago. But never invested in it because it was in the PI. Have fond memories drinking Red Horse whilst being in a court case for a week in Baguio. The problem is you can get a mining license by paying the bribes. But the locals simply don't want their land destroyed, pollution, water used up, fully laden trucks speeding past constantly etc etc. And they have guns and are prepared to use them. And this problem is shared around the world. Chile, Peru, Latin America generally. Which is why I am happy that we take our time over BR and don't sell ourselves short.
Of course there is always risk associated that’s true, never know what curveball is going to be served, as was shown with Andy’s example of Mankayan. I believe these small JV’s they are looking at are within Zambia too, as is the more recent deal to mine in Chongwe.
There is a clear enough path set to further develop Manica but with nothing implemented as yet, it will always be the case for projects to deliver first to be cash flow positive and independently be on a financial standing to then advance with the further development planned. Eureka in moz is a little different in that there are no immediate plans to explore further yet, due to the scale of operation and costs involved in the style of mineralisation there.
Thanks guys for providing that. Your record keeping is impeccable and you deserve success for the effort you put in.
My later top ups at the end of 2021/early 2022 were based on BR being sold and a return being handed out in the form of a cash/share payment similar to the projects you mention. I feel others were of a similar position. I still hope this will be the case and the CB quotes reinforce what I had believed to be the case. If a deal is going to take longer due to reasons previously discussed then that is fine by me. Patience is a virtue they say ............... But at the end I still want a decent payout because that was what implied.
In regard to new projects, the use of the term "risky" is open to interpretation. Manica is an area we know. We have further exploration licenses in the Lachlan Fold. In the current downturn opportunities might arise. But it is becoming a competitive field. And to be honest I would rather put my money in one of Colin's other companies (or 2) than chase new jurisdictions so this is not an anti Colin rant.
Thank you Andy
Also, here is the reported (not from official RNS) details of when kalumbila was sold, seems a better comparison.
>>> LONDON/TORONTO (Reuters) - First Quantum Minerals FM.TOFQM.L has agreed to buy Kiwara Plc KIWA.L in a cash and share deal worth $260 million.
London shares of Kiwara, which owns the Kalumbila copper project in Zambia, jumped 30.2 percent to 68-1/2 pence after the agreed deal was announced. The shares had nearly tripled so far this year before Monday’s news as copper prices recovered.
First Quantum said it had received commitments from shareholders representing 76 percent of Kiwara shares to accept the offer, which has also been recommended by Kiwara’s board.
Under the deal, Kiwara shareholders will receive 0.0085 First Quantum shares and 37.5 pence for every Kiwara share held. First Quantum will issue about 1.9 million shares, which will dilute its shares by about 2.4 percent, according to Reuters data.
The implied value per Kiwara share is 75 pence, a 41.5 percent premium to the closing price of Kiwara on Friday.<<<
So in comparison, with the subsidiary holding company (Prospectore) being bought out, are shareholders expected to see the full 100% share of proceeds of sale returned to them in form of full dividend payment or part divi with the remaining value returned by issue of new shares in the acquiring company?
Whilst retaining all xtract shares held prior to sale?
Bit premature I know but worth the query as have not been through a process like this before as I’m sure many have not either.
Hi Howezap
Perhaps sale 11 years ago of Mankayan by Bezant may provide a precedent - details below. This was never executed, Philippine government banned mining ! But the intent was 50:50 special divi / investing in existing portfolio.
Btw its a different Eureka mentioned - one in Argentina this time.
Extract of deal...
Potential disposal of Mankayan
Under the option agreement, Bezant is to receive a non-refundable, upfront cash
payment of US$7m with a further cash sum of US$63m payable if Gold Fields
exercises the option to acquire the entire issued capital of Asean (a 100%-owned
subsidiary of Bezant). Asean currently holds a 40% interest in the copper/gold
Mankayan Project, which includes an option to acquire the remaining 60%. The
option with Gold Fields is exercisable at any time until 31 January 2013, after which it
will lapse. Gold Fields’ current option on the nearby Far South-East project increases
the likelihood of the option being exercised.
Funds for Eureka and special dividend
The proceeds are expected to be split proportionally 50/50 between work
programmes for the Eureka project and a special dividend to shareholders. At Eureka
the funds received will allow Bezant to initially focus on delineating a JORC/NI 43-101
compliant resource.
A comment at the end of your post flipper had me thinking.
>>I am sure many on here wouldn't want to see money made from a BR sale reinvested in such locations no matter how great the geology.<<
On recollection, in interview Colin has said a couple of things, one being, “I want to do this for the shareholders.” I know that sounds obvious but was more relevant within the context in which it was spoken at the time. Also, “Shareholders would be getting a big fat cheque.” No doubt figuratively speaking, that will be in the form of a big divi payment.
Do any members have any insight into a likely dividend or divi / share split return to shareholders following ‘potential’ sale of BR?
I see how you twist what someone says to make them look silly when that's not what they said att all. Aww small man syndrome, small will y syndrome or are you just lonely? I wish you all the best as it looks like your struggling. Bye for real this time. Good luck.
I meant the market will drop Monday not in the closed period.
I didn't say it will effect xtract and I don't believe it will. Move on, go and try make yourself feel better about your life somewhere else. Bye
Well I'm speculating. I don't know obviously.
I am trying to understand the correlation.
Well if the market devalues in USA with the largest companies with the strongest currency then surely the ftse 100 will drop too on opening?
Also with the us markets dropping I assumed the dollar would weaken against the pound and but it didn't. So does that mean we are in for a larger drop?
The ig market does not exchange no where near the volume that the open market does.
Why do you say that Lucky ?
The drop I mean.
Going to be a big drop in the ftse 100 Monday morning I think. Funny the time difference between the us market and uk market coincide with a 2% drop after the London market closed.
I certainly wouldn’t disagree there flipper at this stage, it would be a little premature until we know what is actually on the table, both in terms of what else is required to make BR saleable and what, where and at what cost these further projects are looking to be.
My reasoning is more toward the overall business model and part of that is a budget ceiling for BR. From the acquisition of the license, there has always been a clear objective to prove up the 2mtCuEq and / or decision to mine to see if AA want to buy it back.
I think also, referring to Bens recollection of the 20-30p comment by CB, it is also an indication that, even back then, they obviously had a certain expectation as to where the resource would sit with a budget needed to achieve that goal with a realistic sale price in mind. Even a timeframe of a sale by end of ‘22 was quoted by CB back then, all shows that there is a clear enough, maybe even a definitive plan, within that overall strategy to grow the company.
To all
It’s remit for growth is to look for assets that meet a certain criteria and that criteria does not involve risky, expensive exploration programmes in unsafe jurisdictions. It’s all in the recent audited report.
It’s where their expertise lies and focus is now.
I’m sure the Colin Bird stable of companies are adequately structured to enable new projects to be taken on along side the existing, without the burden being solely placed on Colin’s shoulders ;-) There is also regional/national/continental risk diversification of assets to consider in the longer term when considering new projects I would think.
Joe
If we did a deal with MMP we could pay half the costs of plant mod and have a higher % of gold share. I'm sure both sides could do the number crunching to work out what the new % could be? I agree its a slightly more complex arrangement but could be done if both parties agreed.
Whatever the new arrangement re cost v profit at mania, I hope we focus on what we know works, in an area we understand and with another company we have been working with.
I kinda agree Andrew, but we won't be spending money on the plant as it doesn't belong to us.
More likely we will put the effort into drilling and understanding that license.....
...... or provide funding to MMP for their plant expansion in return for a Royalty agreement ...... now that would be a confusing quarterly results spreadsheet....
50p over and out !
CB has said many times "If you're looking for Elephants then go and look were Elephants have been found before"
A sensible approach mho.
So why does he need to explore other areas when right under his nose is manica. We know there is a resource there. Only 10% of the licence has been drilled and according to Ed Slowey, CB's Geo, "There is Gold everywhere at manica"
The problem is that it covers all sorts of different mineralisation, Oxide, transition and sulphide. The current plant can only process oxides so why not spend the money on modifying this plant and exploring the other 90% of the licence. CB has said we have the option of 50/50 partnership with MMP with costs split same as profit share ie 50/50.
That seems a much less risk then CB going for another treasure hunt in some other unknown area . Manica would offer very good risk to reward for shareholders.
I suspect CB wont be doing that as that is not sexy enough for him and he really wants the Kudos of another great discovery like Kiwara. He seems happy to take the greater risk for the greater reward esp as time is running out for him.
Lets hope his ego can be satisfied with a big sale of bushranger and the acclaim that that would bring?
And then we can be boring and just develop manica. Or other parts of Bushranger if not all of it sold?
But please no more high risk treasure hunts. Kalengwa is a right off and Eureka has not delivered anything after years of promises.
Howezap "I did read a comment that we should concentrate on what we have and not take on any more. I say, there should always be a business plan.
What do others reckon?"
Normally what you are saying is totally obvious. Of course an exploration company should be taking on new projects. The problem here is that Colin has multiple companies with a vast number of projects and is no longer as young as he would wish. I have shares in other CB companies as others have. Why do I want more of the same ?. Plus investing in a safe country like Oz is completely different to say Zimbabwe which I personally dismiss from past personal experience. I am sure many on here wouldn't want to see money made from a BR sale reinvested in such locations no matter how great the geology.