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Andrew,
As the latest information from the podcast suggests that there will be no third phase I'm expecting the sale to be sooner than you (and I in a message I posted just a couple of days ago) suggest.
Also, I would expect the XTR shares we will still hold after the sale will be roughly similar to the current sp, i.e Bushranger is currently valued at zilch.
I won't be selling early but will be holding out for the buy-out offer as that will obviously be at a premium to the sp.
My best guess is this will be in Q2/Q3 next year?
I believe Kiwara was sold for 50% special dividend (cash to us) + 50% shares of buyer company at equivalent value. I expect the same arrangement again. I would then assume that the sp will then reduce to value of xtract assets less bushranger ie African assets?
That's my understanding of how it will work.
As PI 's control less than 25% of shares the decision to accept or reject the offer, will be out of our hands
Found the podcast quite uplifting in the light of the ongoing lack of news and depressing situation in Ukraine. I feel reassured that CB has a clear plan of action and a steady hand on the tiller. I would be most surprised if we do not have a decent uplift possibly starting tomorrow onwards. Many thanks for the informative posts and particularly to anyone being bold enough to indicate where the sp might soon be heading.
James,
I don't think that's the case in this instance. My understanding is that there will be a 'special dividend'.
My expectation is that this special dividend will probably consist of cash, presumably some shares from the miner purchasing the resource and still be left holding my original XTR shares. Does anybody think/know differently?
When you sell…..
Is anybody any wiser when do we get our money?
One further thing I took from the podcast is now that they are doing the resource statement, it would imply they will not be doing the extra shallow high grade drills to extend the early recovery phase 4-6 up to 8years as they would surely want to wait to include any extra tonnage in the resource statement toward the conceptual study.
I know this would count toward the third phase, but also a previous podcast CB said they would end up with the shallow high grade programme that seemed sensible to bolster the early recovery phase anyway, done wether or not any other drilling was undertaken in a third phase.
Think he would have mentioned wether or not this would be done if was still an option.
Andrew. Thanks for the figures. In the short term I expect the markets to be down but the $8500 is about the price I was figuring on mid 2023/24. Possibly Colin is looking to sell by his 80th birthday.
Sorry
It was me that added mid/end Nov.
I know that when CB even gives a rough timeline then with this one. It might not be until end of Dec/early 2023.
Enjoy w/end
If CB said " Not too distant future" and Oct / Nov time scale then I would think very earliest would be December, more likely Jan and possibly Feb.
Will, just say he also said along lines of that Xtr generally has good idea on what that will look like.
So presume he might have talks with AA before actual release.
Think CB, said on Racecourse model.
In not to distant future
So hopefully that will be around mid/end of Nov at latest.
Andrew - I appreciate your analysis. Thanks. When do you think the ‘Decision to mine’ will be announced? Colin appeared to make something of Oct/Nov timeframe. Did you pick this up as well?
The 20 x 25 = 500mt which imho further confirms we are well short of 2mt con copper. For that to be the case then we would need 0.4% Cu Eq which is highly unlikely looking at assay results.
As for valuation. There are so many different variables and assumptions. So when you change a few and multiply them out the margin of error / different results are high.
For what its worth my assumptions are:
1.4mt Cu Eq (500 x 0.28%)
$8500 cu price used
0.9 GBP / USD conversion
1.5% in ground value. The 3% mentioned is usually against a much higher level of confidence of resource ie a lot measured not just implied / inferred
That comes out at 16p ($178M = £160M) with 1 billion shares in issue
Thats for RC only. We have to add on Ascot and the other areas of interest. I think circa 20p is a reasonable estimation.
If you listen to the interview from 4min 15 sec to 5mins CB does appear to be hinting that the majors know what we have and the geo phys work etc may give then confidence to attribute value to other areas that have little drilling or maybe no drilling. I guess the simple analogy would be - if you have drilled half a football pitch and found value in it, then there is a decent chance the other half would be similar. You would not value the other half the same but nor would it be valued at zero value.
A rather over simplistic analogy - but you get my point
I think CB now thinks we've done enough for the other areas to have "some" value (how much is the question) attributed to them. How much or little, value the other areas of the licence (ex RC) is attributed by the majors may significantly change the valuation.
For total buy-out, I'm looking at 15p as minimum, probably circa 20p and with a bit of luck and great negotiation skills by CB, 25p max
It’s always darker before dawn, sums it up , the next couple of months will be interesting
I did note that CB thinks it will be a 20mt x 25 years resource. Ignoring the current market situation, anyone any thoughts about its possible market value in the future ?
Thanks for posting the podcast. Good day to post given the lack of football !.
Some good bits such as where BR stands on the Lachlan Fold in relation to its competitors. Just not sure in this market it will make much difference. Colin might be experienced with rising interest rates but QT ??.
What about the scenario where Colin and team want AA discussions to start and an offer put forward from AA, the offer could be 100m/200m or more etc. At this point, the SP rises to match the valuation, allows impatient holders to exit, offer is declined, xtract raise 10million of the back of the rising SP for extra drilling and find 2 or 3 more porphyrys?
Just a thought. I would be happy with this as I am looking to get some sold and this is why im impatient, but also would love to follow the bushranger story.
This may not work due to the buy back clause fine print, which we don't know.
Andrew>>>So maybe CB is right in saying that RC is much bigger than we ever thought but not yet confirmed?
Totally agree as assays from some ‘Racecourse’ holes shown deep intersections that hit potential deeper porphyry/s under the main ore body. This is a huge plus for the economics as eventually the deeper system/s would be accessed after the open pit is depleted with only minimal cost and ongoing OpEx as all infrastructure and plant would have already been paid for. This would extend Racecourse life of mine by decades!
They would have a very good idea on deeper anomalies as the EM survey (I believe) that has been done scans down to as deep as 1.5 km
Hi lucky yes I was always hopeful that racecourse was ‘closer’ to 2mt by ‘offering’ examples of where the copper eq tonnages could potentially increase within the resource.
The effect of disposition of lower grade ore outside the high grade part of the resource when the cut off is reduced and what impact the infill drilling could have to increase the current inferred resource once (partially) upgraded.
I have also said on many occasions that the intent is to get to one of the trigger points to see what AA want to do as going forward this needs to be sold for the company to grow.
The most important thing is the eventual sale as I’m sure you will agree and this podcast has made the position clearer going forward, and shows clear intent now to take racecourse to a conceptual study for the decision to mine. The 2mt now becomes irrelevant other than overall value.
The other point that was questionable is that it does appear a buyer will acquire all of the licences together.
Good reasoning Andrew I would agree.
"why havnt you picked out the part where 2mt hasn't been hit?"
The 2 mt clearly has not been officially declared and that may explain why no updated RC model has been issued yet. As it would show we have not got 2mt confirmed.
However, CB's comment in the interview "Racecourse is much bigger than we ever expected it to be" is a strange one. Even for CB, it would be a step too far to make this statement if the resource is less than previously expected and claimed only a few months ago with his 2mt comment.
I may have got this following theory wrong and maybe I'm being too generous to CB here, but my understanding now is that CB thinks there has been enough pre work re geo phys, drilling etc that a major can see the potential of all of Bushranger and we will get additional attributed value from other areas without doing more drilling? Obviously more drilling will increase the value as the major would know exactly what they were getting.
Same point as CB has made about doing just a bit of drilling at Ascot to show that there is something of interests there which has value.
CB said in that interview that we would of get to 2mt if we did more drilling so he may take the view the major will also believe this (from work and evidence already done) so no need to spend more time and money in phase 3. Obviously the value we get would be higher against confirmed resource than a " good chance" of additional resource / 2mt.
So maybe CB is right in saying that RC is much bigger than we ever thought but not yet confirmed? And now is looking for a valuation based on what we know is there + highly likely other potential value - which CB is sure will see a valuation by majors of or higher than a confirmed 2mt?
That's my gut feeling on what his strategy is now from that interview. I may well be wrong, or if I'm correct, it could be silly and risky strategy for CB to follow re maximising value. But that's my understanding of what he intends to do now to ensure we come to a conclusion on this project sooner than later.
Howezap, why havnt you picked out the part where 2mt hasn't been hit?
A reiteration overall ;-) but with some Interesting comments,
“Racecourse is much bigger than we ever expected it to be”
?
“Decided not to go chasing those huge targets”
Really want to see them survey results!
Confirms some of the resource will be indicated as has been discussed here.
Biggest revelation is there doesn’t seem to be any likelihood of a third phase.
Commented once again about an October November turn, he sounds hopeful or even set on things happening with AA before end of Q4
"Pouring gold every 12 days at 8 kg to 12 kg at FB"
Assume 9kg - that's 22.5 kg a month
May take until Jan / Feb to be fully up to commercial capacity?
I think we should get some figures by end of year though? That's my view not what CB said.
Also of note, alluvials end date circa April 23 to Oct 23.