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No offense intended, LW - we are all in this share to make money - with several of my investments I have been known to hope for a short term glitch to drop the SP so I could top up at a better price, some of my best profits have resulted from just such trades. I have no problem if you want the SP to drop a bit ( NtM , for one, would fill his boots!), but from my point of view there will be plenty of trading opportunities over the next few months, it's just that I would like to take advantage of them at an SP trading level that is considerably higher than 1p.
Each to their own and luck to us all.
indeed littlewing... and when you see it in the bottom line reported numbers more than written words by the one and only , no doubt :-)
CE... your uncertainty regarding my waiting for good news or bad is quite bewildering tbh. As a fairly large share holder I can assure you I would prefer it to be good but also being a long time holder here I have learned to believe it when I see it.
Here's to a MUCH better 2021 here and for the World CE !
Shouldn't be hard to achieve in both cases.
Hello again NtM,
Sorry I had missed your 11.36 post.
I couldn't agree more.
As far as I am concerned all AIM investments come down to a risk/reward evaluation and whilst there are still some risks in XTR, the potential rewards far outweigh them, IMO. As you say - with so many irons in the fire we would have to be very unlucky in deed not to be in a far better place over the next few months.
I'm with you in that I too will be topping-up as and when funds allow - although I do hope we will never see sub 1p again as we've already been there and done it and it wasn't very pretty.
The New Year is not far away now so maybe time to become a little more optimistic on all fronts?
Let's hope so, NtM - as his writings to date do not seem to have inspired many people - at least if recent posts on here are anything to go by...
Did the one and only - Mr Colin Bird - tell you that the Black Friday subscription renewal offer for his online creative writing course was so compelling that he just couldn't resist one more years subscription CE?
I think that's a bit harsh LW - as far as I can see there have been only 2 equity raises in the last three years and dilution with each one has been minimal ( nothing like to 50%-60% in many other companies over the same period). Yet over the same period the company has been transformed and assets are now worth multiples of what they were in December 2017.
Anyway, I have spoken to Colin, and I think you may be in for a bit of a surprise - good news for most of us on here, but given the nature of your recent posts I am not sure if you want the news to be good or bad?
I wish you luck.
Good posting CE and much appreciated ! And it reminds me once again of the wide-ranging potential that exists 'ere. ( and I do need reminding as it has been painfully slow progress and may continue to be, alas )
Accepting most all delivery timeframes are out of CB's direct control, there is still extremely compelling reasons for contractors to deliver quickly from here and so I semi confidently expect meaningful bottom line revenue progress from at least sometime in Q1 2021.... and then some more again in Q2 2021.. and we'd be in a good new paradigm here then.
Given this and the s/p closing in on a - very? - lowly 1p, I've decided to commit a bit more money here this month at least. And I'm open to that becoming a fair bit more if this goes to 1p or even under . Again, for other long suffering 'ere, hopefully it doesn't.
2021 may well include plenty more delays/annoyance, BUT there are so many irons in the fire 'ere and such strong underlying commodity prices that this is a decent 6 month to 1 year time horizon bet for the patient anywhere below 1.25p imho
CE, with the amount a shareholder money spent and further dilution of the company, the only reward very poor income from Manica alluvials. Bird stretching the truth is thro Covid lockdown absolutly diabolical, this was unacceptable
The sinking SP says that wont happen. Despite Bird's early proclamations when JN left about how shareholders had reason to be disgruntled we have quite frankly been continually dicked over big time since then.
I agree, and if the fundraising money can be shown to be financing the drilling at Bushranger, the moving-on of Eureka and getting production started in Kalengwa, rather than lining the pockets of the BoD, then that would certainly add shareholder value and I am sure the market would react well.
What many need is a detailed across-the-board update with a credible plan to ensure at least $300,000 per month income before the end of Q1 and for the company to be fully funded with no further need for any fundraising in the future.
Only one person can do that - so let's hope Colin is still reading this BB and comes through with the update this month.
CE... thanks for that reply. I do believe that if the projects start to deliver then an investment here will be well rewarded from these levels but I just have an ever growing doubt that we will see any meaningful delivery to demonstrate that the placements were done with the objective of lifting the MktCap and hence the SP. After all that is the only way we will see our investment objective come to fruition.
The term retail investor is my own ( I include myself in that category, by the way) it is a way of differentiating between Private Investors (Those buying on advice from financial advisors or brokers), institutional Investors (self explanatory) or retail investors (those that buy based on own research without any professional advice).
They may not be the official definitions, but they work for me. I can't remember ever having heard Colin use the term, but that does not mean that he never has, so you could be right.
Of course all investors have the right to criticise the management of any company that they (part) own. That is the way it should be, and goodness knows I have done my share over the years.
I guess the point I was making is along the lines of 'past performance not being any guarantee for the future' and my personal belief is that the company has been completely remodelled over the last three years (although I admit, it feels a lot longer) and I think we are now finally beginning to mature as a company. I invest my money to make a profit, that is why I am here, If I thought that I were going to lose money I would take the hit (my average is around 3p) and put what is left of my investment into what I consider to be a better bet.
Hope this helps to clarify my position - I may be wrong, but on the other hand...
As I said yes we have reasonable projects, but they need to be pushed forward much more strongly , I personally think Colin is spread too thinly amongst all the other companies he is involved with.
CE... its not 6-9months that seems like an eternity to many on here as you full well know. The term retail investor is straight out of the Bird book of people he sees as an impatient irritant btw. You would know that from your phone conversations I'm sure. Is he annoyed again that retail investors are pulling him up on his lack delivery.... again ?
Hi Spacemen... boring over the other place was it lol
"but let's not forget that he does not have any direct input to any of these projects, they are entirely in the hands of the contractors" - Who hired the contractors? Who do they answer to?
"due to kick in before the end of December" Due on whose say so?
"previous RNSs about Kalengwa" Posted how long ago?
CaveatEmptor - AKA Colin Birds brother?
So, say what you like about CB, and I am sure that many will, you can't take away from him the fact that he has turned a one horse race into something more akin to the St Leger - full of pedigree animals and every one worth a fortune in its own right.
Xtract has a lot to shout about moving forward, as well as a very dubious past - so where do we want to live i in the past... or in the future?
- This is hopefully just some food for thought in the spirit of a more balanced discussion.
Sounds like you have taken some unhappy pills?
Yes we know that CB's forward guidance on timing has left a lot to be desired (putting it mildly!), but let's not lose site of the fact that the cost of production at Fairbride will be around $550.00 per ounce - so at today's price that means a whopping $1,200 clear profit! - even if the POG drops to $1,400 Xtract will be getting $600,000 -$800,000 clear profit each month, and that is not to be sniffed at.
Personally I do not think that we will get any Fair Bride income before next summer, but, as the contractor has already spent in the region of $6,000,000 on the project we can be certain that it will happen and that it will be a company maker for Xtract.
Yes, I know that to many retail investors 6-9months sounds like an eternity, but there are plenty of other irons in the fire that wiii, in all likelihood , produce meaningful cash income in the much shorter term.
The Primary (original) alluvial production is holding up surprisingly well ( about $60,00-$70,000 monthly contribution to Xtract) and I would not be at all surprised if they were to continue in the same vein for the foreseeable future.
Then there is the Secondary ( new) alluvial production - probably a little less monthly contribution here, but still significant and due to kick in before the end of December.
Likewise, the Guy Fawkes contractor must be making headway with the known rich deposits both above and below ground.
So three sources of income that are likely to groe over the next few months to give well in excess of $300,000 income per month to Xtract.
I know that people, justifiably, have a downer on CB at the moment, but let's not forget that he does not have any direct input to any of these projects, they are entirely in the hands of the contractors and they will not fail to be motivated by the current POG - so why would they drag their heels? - good news on the horizon Mozambique horizon, I think.
Also Xtract it not all about Manica - far from it in fact, and that is, in my opinion, the biggest contribution that CB has made to the value of the company.
Reading between the lines of previous RNSs about Kalengwa, there is very little preparation work needed before production can start on 2 million tonnes of pre-mined high grade tailings - so, once again with the price of copper getting ever higher, early production should be on the cards - Wouldn't we be happy with a Q1 2021 first income from there?
Eureka - we know there has been drilling going on and that it is looking highly prospective for developing a highly profitable asset - news due there also in Q1?
And then there is, what could well turn out to be the jewel in the crown, the Bushranger copper/gold play in Australia. This could prove to be worth more than all the other assets put together and we will find out after a short and relatively cheap ( circa £300,000?) drilling programme.
A group of us tried to get rid of Bird a few years ago, I think we were up to 15% of the total share holding (I was even contacted by someone from Nexus). I'd written a letter, I still have it somewhere, of no confidence to the BoD, I tried and tried to get hold of the Bird and the BoD with no joy. I'd planned to publish the letter of no confidence as an open letter in a notable shares magazine but they got cold feet.
Remember, the BOD work for us shareholders! - The problem I see now is that the huge dilution has softened the voice of disgruntled shareholders + Bird has these Aussie boys on board, they have real voting power and are probably not aware of how bad Birds record on delivery is here.
I'd be happy to dig this letter out with enough backing!
For those that have not heard this longish interview with Zak Mir the link is below - it was conducted on 16th October.
One aspect I find galling is the commentary about the placing announced on the 30th September, Bird said that he delivered a placing at market price (1.2p) seemed chuffed by this, however he fails to mention the shares were trading at 2.2p only two weeks earlier - we all know that TW was aware of a possible fundraise - it appears every man and his dog in the city knew in advance about this placing hence the rapid drop in the share price.
Again the poor sods who bought shares above 2p were shafted, it leaves a sour taste in the mouth does it not, the placing price was not a great deal for shareholders, if it had been conducted at 2p+ then fair enough.
The disconnect between market cap and projects is a result of continual missed targets and shoddy placings, that is clear.
They say its good to put money back into the local community! And as I live a five minute walk from the office lucky, that could be one way of making myself feel happier about Xtract the company :-)
I have walked by the office plenty of times . In warm summer days when the - small mews - house(s) door is open for ventilation there are a few people at the desks in the open plan 'office' inside working away. So that part seem legit at least :-)
I've no interest in making myself known to the one and only Mr Colin Bird or anyone else there. (That view might have been different when I was first in this and big sized.. but at this stage this is just a -nother - rolling/range trading bet for me.. and it has been good to me, circuitously/somehow)
XTR acquired Manica in the summer of 2015, five years ago, for a price of USD $12.5m, it is clear that no value has been delivered since.
Every project that this company acquires adds no value, simply delivers more dilution and fairy tale stories from management.
The link below shows the exact Manica deal...