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Its not my area of expertise. Curious to discover how it all works, and have really enjoyed expanding my knowledge over the last year or so.
ZM what you are talking of there is at feasibility or even pre-feasibility study level.
This updated financial model will be more comprehensive than the last one, but still barely at scoping study.
Just think of all those features and inputs in the modelling software that will be left blank, ie adding no additional costs. Currency risks, political risks, seasonal extreme weather considerations, power provision, transport of all kinds, skilled and semi skilled labour availability, security, etc etc!
A question for those in the know ... how complicated is the modelling? I presume there is established 'go to' software that can be used. The datapoints available from which the geophysics is interpolated are surely limited to what they have pulled out of the drill holes, and the infrastructure of the processing plant, the workforce and all other equipment is a complicated (I am sure) but not unique project to be costed.
I know many here have got their fag packets out and made their own calculations from the reports from the drill core and assay reports, etc. Surely all of that is woefully inadequate and ;potentially very wide of the mark (despite people declaring how definately likely or unlikely 2MT may be), but I expect the level of sophistication of the tools being used is high. And also clever enough to tweak, add data, create scenarios etc almost at the click of a mouse?
Screenlearner - Most of us have been guilty of underestimating how long things would take but phase 2 is now finished, most of the assays are back, and we've been told there is no plan for a phase 3. So we just have to wait until they are ready to issue the new resource estimates and the modelling. I would hope we are talking weeks rather than months... but they could be famous last words!
Was meant to include this bit from last study in my last post
>>Open pit modelling was carried out using the currently defined JORC (2012) compliant Inferred Resource of 71Mt @ 0.44% Cu and 0.064 g/t Au at a cut-off of 0.3% Cu, as well as additional unclassified resources at the Racecourse prospect
The difference in this case was the date estimation was in an RNS, not an interview.
*death not dead
I'm sorry, I have to laugh. Several people saying words along the lines 'not long to wait'. I remember my prediction of good news and a re-rate in about September .That was September 2021 by the way. We can only hope. One day the words 'soon/imminent/not long now/etc' will turn out to be right. But just because Colin said late Oct/Early November means diddly-squat. He has said a lot of things. Won't be a dead of a thousand cuts. Was it six weeks he said more than six months ago. I am fairly confident it will happen and we will get a really decent re-rate... but I am now much less certain when. September 2023 anyone? Ha Ha perhaps I should just say Serptember and leave others to fill in the year!
I agree with Cygnus.
The last modelling of the conceptual open pit used the existing JORC and didn’t include anything found by the XTR drilling. All the XTR finds should now be built into the modelling and a new JORC estimate issued. Hopefully not too long to wait now.
I’d really like some gold rich assays from Footrot RNS’ed first to give the SP a kick!
A revised open pit model will need to be carried out using the updated JORC for Racecourse. Below is taken from conceptual study RNS back in July ‘21
>>The preliminary conceptual open pit optimisation mining study ("Conceptual Study") was completed by independent consultant, Optimal Mining Solutions (Pty) Ltd of Australia ("Optimal"). Where appropriate, other independent consultants were used, including Cartledge Mining and Geotechnics together with Lycopodium (mineral processing experts).<<
The pit design will be carried out at this stage too.
Is likely both RC and Ascot resource statements will be reported firstly.
Zero,
I would imagine that the conceptual pit model would incorporate the JORC assessment.
For a model to be created, the amount of Cu needs to be known and the level of confidence in that resource needs to be known so I can't see how the model can be published without a JORC associated with it.
Just my take on it.
Thank you. All sorted re: Telegram.
A question, on another quiet day, for anyone with any view on this ... I have read that we may have sight of a 'JORC' by December. But there is also the conceptual pit model that is due to emerge. I think Colin Bird said imminently, or soon, or some other term that has been taken by most to mean next year ... ! Although my take from the last but one appearance on The Sunday Roast was that Colin Bird let slip, later on, that the conceptual pit model should land late October. It felt like an unguarded moment wrapped up in a burst of enthusiastic burbling.
So am I right that the conceptual pit model is what will be accompanied by the 'decision 2 mine' declaration as it demonstrates an economical pit waiting to be got on with? This is of course the trigger for AA to excercise their buy back clause if they should so wish.
So what is the significance of this JORC, if it is due as late as December. Is it required. Might ProspectOre be enjoying the love of a new (old) owner before that JORC lands? Or will the potential sale to AA or anyone, rely on the existence of the JORC?
Any contributions to these gaps in my understanding are much appreciated.
And did anyone else pick up on that slipped comment (Sunday Roast, a month or so ago) about the conceptual pit model landing in late Oct/early Nov?
You need to be invited, but I can't post an invite on here - last time I tried I was banned :)
You may be able to find an invite on Twitter somewhere. The Telegram channel is good though, especially as it is a lot easier to post pictures, documents, etc. so you tend to see more research.
I often see references to a Telegram thread for XTR. I am a complete newbie to Telegram but have signed up. Can anyone point me towards a useful thread. Does one have to be invited to take part? Thanks in advance.
Given where we are I would think that your observation is a very positive sign. Who would be bleating into the ether in the middle of one of the most important weeks of your life?
CB on the Sunday roast talking about one of his other companies.
The only thing I can take from the interview with kev and Phil, and it really is scraping the barrel! Even for me. There was not a single mention of xtract! Not even a slip of the tongue. Bit rude I thought tbh normally at least get a plug or a decent piggy back even. There was a point when they were talking about the strong position that his companies are in ready for when the tide turns, kev then also mentioned just AFP, when any other time he would have mentioned xtr.
After my initial thought of complete disdain and even disgust, it turned to wondering if the guys had been briefed not to mention xtr as they have entered into a news blackout. So shhhh not another word!
I think I can see now why they consider 35 to be sub optimal. Due to its east to west orientation and angle it missed the 3rd lateral zone.
These extensive lateral bands of copper-gold mineralisation run north to south and have been tracked at over a km.
Noticed an interesting comment regarding Hole 35 (Ascot discovery hole)
Is very well mineralised -164m@.35%CuEq including 64m@.58CuEq
In end of phase completion RNS 4thAug.
>>> (hole 55) The hole was drilled at an inclination of -80 degrees towards the east, completing at a final depth of 721.5m, where BRDD-21-035 was drilled sub-optimally towards the west.
Could mean sub optimally in terms of 35 not hitting the strongest mineralisation. As is difficult see that hole 55 could have confirmed either way from the geological understanding from just core analysis as the hole was only just completed at the time.
Could they have determined this from core analysis of hole 55? Or was it already determined from hole 35’s assays but not mentioned previously?
Bit late in the day I know, but one that I would hope theiceberg could comment on its significance, if of any?
ZM - Amen to that.
Re-running the now cliched, but still amusing, line ... A (Colin) Bird in the hand is worth two in the Bush(ranger) (or 3 of you include Footrot) ...
I say get on with it. If there is a buyer now at a decent price I say take it and we can all move on. The world needs more copper (more everything really), so a resource is a resource and will always be valuable, but there are significant global risks out there that and kicking the can down the road for another year of drilling could feasibly lead to a 5 or even ten year shelving of the possibility of a sale if another black swan even occurs. And those dark swans seem to be coming at us rather too frequently at the moment. Time to make hay while the sun is still shining.
"The only scenario I can think of is that CB doesn't want to make it too attractive to AA. It may be that XTR is looking for a 'no' from AA before conducting a phase 3 for infill and testing other geophysics targets before going to the wider market. That seems unlikely, but possible".
I suggested a few months ago that this could be the best financial outcome possible although it would take longer to come to a head!
"How much is that then"
No idea - but its certain to be more than current sp valuation :)
Andrew4444:
How much is that then ?
;)
"Its hard to find a scenario where CB is highlighting the release of MREs, creation of models and a decision to mine (while also holding off on more drilling) if the 'mine' wasn't economic - especially as there is income available to do drilling where necessary."
That's a compelling view why this is all coming to a conclusion. The $64,000 question, or should that be $640M question, is what will the conclusion be?