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Copper needs to hit $6.26lb just to be worth the same value once you take into account inflation adjustment alone since the $4.62lb high of 2011. That is without any of the expected demand needs that copper is central to, for the world to decarbonise and reach net zero.
$4-$5.lb is well within reach.
>>>With no covid, no fall in POC, no change in economic conditions, no war the sp would still have fallen as reality and results was seen to be nothing like CBs comments and predictions. .
The above has increased interest rates, fuel and power costs, labour, construction. Just about every aspect that has increased CapEx and Op costs that have had a profound negative effect on the updated economic study.
Typo.. utter boll ox
re "br was more or less on track until the economic fall out from covid and global recession hit"
utter ******. 10000+ per ton would have taken br from a very good prospect to a brilliant one. it's nothing to do with covid/recession and all about the bullshiite spun by birdie about size and grades.
I didn't manage to make it to the AGM '23 version. I would like to know why CB's outlandish forward looking statements were not put to him at the last AGM.
I made it to AGM '22 but there was no definitive answer at this point that he was wrong.
He must be held accountable at the upcoming meeting. Why should anyone believe him? He must prove to us a strategy that will convince those who have been burned (IE. With averages 5p upwards).
HZ
You do seem to try and find any excuse to defend CB !
Yes, POC did fall around the proposed sale time but that is not the main reason for the sp collapse. Maybe 20% of the reason. Many of CB's failed predictions or "statements of fact" had nothing to do with the economic conditions ie
We know we have the grades and I'm not worried about the grades
We were biting our nails re 2mt but now with Ascot find we dont have to.
This is a tier 1 asset
His predictions / comments did not meet reality. If POC was still at April2022 high levels before the fall, Bushranger would offer virtually zero profit. CB was talking about $8K to $8.5K POC as being the brake even point in the interviews
With no covid, no fall in POC, no change in economic conditions, no war the sp would still have fallen as reality and results was seen to be nothing like CBs comments and predictions. .
With better economic conditions and no fall in POC, we may have fallen to 2p not 1p
Not being critical of your post btw Andrew was more of a ‘let’s not forget’.
>>>If you can't trust a word the CEO says then it doesnt give you much confidence in him delivering.
BR was more or less on track until the economic fall out from Covid and global recession hit.
Think where the price of copper particularly, could be now if it were not for the crash. The reasons that many consider as to why the share price trajectory has been on a downward spiral to where it sits now, has seriously been amplified by the economic climate.
''We know we have the grades and I'm not worried about the grades....This wont be a death my a thousand lashes (re sale)...Looking to make a sale in a few months...If they offer me 10p I'll tell em they can stick it....We were biting our nails re 2mt but now with Ascot find we dont have to.....This is a tier 1 asset''
I'm wondering if Mr Colin Bird was talking about his favourite racehorse all along?
For me its not so much criticism of CB's exploration strategy, but the BS he came out with re Bushranger. and now lack of trust in what he says
Remember what he said re Bushranger:
We know we have the grades and I'm not worried about the grades
This wont be a death my a thousand lashes (re sale)
Looking to make a sale in a few months
If they offer me 10p I'll tell em they can stick it
We were biting our nails re 2mt but now with Ascot find we dont have to.
This is a tier 1 asset
etc
Many didnt sell at 6p as CB had given all of us great confidence that it was going much higher after the imminent sale.
If you can't trust a word the CEO says then it doesnt give you much confidence in him delivering.
That doesnt mean to say he wont deliver though
Just a reminder of the “desk work” CB is so fond of that we shareholders funded re Manica.
Probably worth noting that gold price is also up circa $800/oz since this project was mapped out with little signs of slowing down which arguably increases the potential for profit somewhat.
DFS Key parameters
• Extraction Method – Conventional Open Pit
• Life of Mine – 7 years
• Total Ore Tonnes Processed – 3.3 Mt (42 ktmp)
• Total Ounces Produced – 215 koz ( ̴ 31 kozpm)
• Recovered Grade – 2.62 g/t
• Gold Price – US$1,262 per oz Project Payback – 2 years
• IRR – 41.1 %
• NPV – US$42 million (@8.4% discount rate)
• Capex Expenditure – US$43.68 million
• Direct Cash Cost – US$556/oz
• All inclusive sustainable cost (breakeven) – US$862/oz
Now does $15m in staged payments seem like a good deal for that instead of our 23% considering how little of the resource has been depleted thus far? (even if we have to fund our share of phase 2 etc)
I stand by my previous statements, the proposed sale of Manica is not good value for XTR shareholders.
Towards balance, I do think there is reasonable merit in that cyberarchias post, in fairness.. and I had no hesitation in ticking it up.. and 13 tick ups and counting for that post doesn't even surprise me.
I'll also add that if this s/p doesn't meaningfully turn around into the future, I'll see it as predominately my own fault... as it was me that placed the BET(s) here.. and in undertaking hard core gambling you understand you can of course lose plenty or even all your betting pot.... That said this can of course come good again too.. here's hoping!
What difficult circumstances are they then OSV ?
Colin said it was a great deal and Zambia was a great opportunity.
What's your take on the many other comments OSV, the negative ones I mean ?
Cyberiachas. excellent post showing a good understanding of how in very difficult circumstances the company is well positioned to deliver for shareholders.
Xtr is an exploration company, it was when people invested in bushranger . The only way we get back to 4p plus (which I know a lot of current shareholders sit at minimum) is by exploring and finding something big.
Nw Zambia is where it is right now and Colin is very well connected . There is a window that won’t be open for ever - let’s see another license or two up there. It’s better to focus management time on that than haggling with mmp in Mozambique.
The deal gets my vote - let’s get busy finding a very big lump of copper. Well done to Colin getting the mine built and getting $16m plus cash out of it, a few years ago we were scrabbling to keep the lights on with a couple of hundred grand from the alluviales. Onwards and upwards.
I was fine with this podcast. Just not sure why Colin was saying how much XTR was undervalued following the last Manica production statement podcast. Aim needs to attract new investors so a solid consistent message would be helpful.
Pi's control much less than 50% of total holding
It is certain to be approved
Voting against the EGM motion should be seen as 'be careful what you wish for'. It may not be a great deal but imagine what risk shareholders will be taking if they send CB back to the negotiating table or choose to rely on whatever 23% nett means for a project over which the Board has almost no control. The main shareholder and operator can simply appoint whoever they wish do, spend whatever they want to and WE finish -up paying ( in the end).
Yes, CB should never have done the deal this way. Why did he not act as per Empress and take a slice at the top-end - from production ? I don't know the answer but I shiver at the prospect of a No Vote and the consequences therefrom.
Personally I have undergone a re-think and will back CB for this last time. He knows NW Zambia like his own back yard and everyone but everyone is hitting stakes in the ground. It ain't moose pasture though. Copper to the surface !!
My two pennyworth on the subject of the Manica sale is that everybody should remeber that if shareholders vote against the sale of Manica then they are in effect voting for 'jam tomorrow'. I say that on the basis that we will have to re-invest income from Manica to pay our part of the further devolpment of the mine pushing back the time when we wil be able to make a profit. As I have said before though, I still feel the price is a tad low-ball and maybe CB should have held out for more.
Agreed Andrew .. but CB is still a great story teller imho .. he just needs a new batch of dreamers to buy into the current story .. the old batch have lived the real world journey .. and many think fairy tales now.. ..
That said it’s still about PoC rally …and a good tenement …in an flavour/favour jurisdiction ..etc ..
We have a new bet in play .. nobody knows how it will pan out, in truth .. here’s hoping
"The agreement xtr. entered into with MMP was perhaps sieve like"
No perhaps about it IMHO. I guess CB now realises that he did not make it water tight so MMP can manipulate "costs" in many ways and are doing so !
$1000+ AISC?? Hmm. Really?
This is on CB and he probably now thinks better to not fight a losing battle, take the easy option and leave it.
That added to the fact his time horizon is now very near due to his age, makes sense for him to sell up and go for a cash grab with no hassle.
Last throw of the dice on Zambia and see if he gets lucky.
(PS In the old days that pod cast would have seen the sp rise. Not now. CB has now lost his magic BS powers ! He now has to deliver actual results for the sp to rise. !)
I can't help feeling that i'm listening to financial promotion/ justification all over again. Is this Bushranger Africa reincarnated. Colin has started mentioning world class, 3 million tons, great team, best world location, world class surrounding mines etc etc. All sounds like a recording from Bushranger location. The only thing not out yet is cigar, onions cucumbers. I'm sure this will follow soon. The whole podcast is like a promotional interview. Am 69% down on my hard earned money. Forgive me for my caution. Think i might stay on the fence at the moment.
Well said JDAU, it's what I've been trying to say for few days now.
I think you hit the nail on the head when you said it's "too much like hard work" policing production at Manica so he'd rather sell it. I personally think we are giving it away at $15m, especially on a three year drip feed. I'll repeat what I said yesterday, we need more money for it and NOW not later.
$25m would be a minimum for me, after all, it's CB himself who bangs on about a commodity bull market being imminent .
The agreement xtr.l entered into with MMP was perhaps sieve like and so a difficult starting point for a smooth long term revenue sharing relationship, especially for a mining operation whose complexity will grow over time, I'll guess, JDAU.. and hence walking away with this deal with these terms, towards brushing/shovelling another potential ongoingly 'complicated' relationship under the carpet, is somewhat understandable to me.
(That poor carpet has seen a lot of cr+p brushed/ shovelled under it over the years....and we shareholders were probably 'sheltered' away from half that cr+p or more!)
The skills within xtr.l may well be focused -aka limited to - on metals exploring, I'll go with... and hence keep it simple is the best way to go here.. and we're about to be back in that ball park now.. so ok by me .. and here's hoping that CB gets lucky in his hard core gambling this time around.