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Hi eastern investor, where timescales are concerned, they are too subjective to make an informed comment to be fair at this time.
What we do know though, from what Colin has said, is that hey have had a RC resource model since about April / may that was being updated with results as they came in so with the very last hole into RC, hole 54 with assays reported on 27 July. Conceptual study to follow, that is outsourced including new pit design/plan. But potentially could be just an updated conceptual model, but nether the less, still independently compiled. So it would be fair to say RC and its supporting conceptual model has already been completed and by now, Ascot MRE too. There is a very good chance the process has been started already to determine AAâs intent.
The perception that the decision to mine is the lesser of the two options to trigger the buy back is wrong IMO. To have gained a greater geological understanding of the whole deposit outweighs just a specific contained copper value.
On top of that , there is far greater value in proving that a resource of âXâ will be potentially, economically recoverable âtowardâ its viability as a mine, than alternatively showing a resource of âXâ with its contained copper/gold equivalent value.
1. What is the likelihood of the resource estimates being announced before the New Year or even shortly afterwards given the repeated failures to meet timescales that CB is known for ?
2. If delivered, what is the likelihood of them showing either 2mt or a viable mine ? The mood music has well and truly shifted from their being 2mt to now a 'decision to mine. '
I believed CB, simple as that, and I do hope not to be let down here.
Howezap. I am a LTH and have been here since well before the bushranger days. My concern,a s with others is that,
Its been at least a day since anyone posted an article saying POC will rise or that there's a shortage of copper.... so
https://smallcaps.com.au/copper-bottoming-process-strong-recovery-expected-2023/
"and a large number of small copper stocks are probably bouncing along the bottom before next yearâs recovery."
Interesting article on Bloomberg today. I donât think I can post the link.
Itâs called âChina shows the Lme there are still buyers for Russian metalsâ
Most of it is focusing on the low warehouse inventories of copper âŚâmulti-year lowâ. Whilst spot prices and current inventories are not necessarily important for today for XTR, it is still positive. Demand for copper is growing and if there is a squeeze, the copper price will rise and thatâs supportive for XTR.
I have no idea what price of copper they use for long term, but having a high spot price will sure help.
Whilst having s listen back over early phase 2 podcasts itâs a good way to gauge Colinâs optimism back from then, against the realities of what or where the project sits at present in terms of the geology. Way back in July â21 before Ascot was identified as a separate porphyry, at the time the geophys pointed to it being the other side to the saddle of racecourse. Potentially to join up with RC to make one big open pit. Now thankfully IMO with what we now know, it turned out to be separate and were able delineate and close off the southern extremities of the open pit, otherwise they could still be drilling it now! Nether the less, way back then he was dreaming of a large open pit of 20mt over 20 years at 0.3-0.35CuEq.
I does just show that grades from RC that are perceived as being below expectations. Where in fact perfectly within their expectations to be quoting that copper equivalent.
So I think not only will he have his dream come true, phase 2 has clearly been successful too, in demonstrating a multi porphyry system beyond Colinâs optimistic view and exceeding companies expectations.
Ironically he made this comment too, âWho wants to back a chief executive thatâs not optimistic?â
Itâs a really good old podcast in understanding where it sits now and why.
Insert v o x m a r k e t s
www.**********.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-colin-bird-executive-chairman-xtract-resources-ac8863c/executive-chairman-xtract-resources
Hey ZM I was just speculating of course, just wanted to come up with a more feasible reason than, âcould well have been just giving investors what they needed to hear at that time,â when responding to why Colin had said there would now, ânotâ be a phase 3 in most recent BR podcast.
it was reported back from AGM that there âwouldâ likely be a phase 3 after possibly getting a no from AAâŚâŚ
Just offering a reason as to why, if it is the case, there has been a change of plan since AGM
What makes you think a Phase 3 drilling programme is on the cards at all? Colin Bird (in an interview, not RNS'd admittedly) has stated there won't be one. IF one was needed and IF cash was required for it I would have expected to see activity aimed at generating interest in the company's successes (Manica full commissioning, talking up the drill results at Bushranger more actively), with a view to propping up the share price.
Why go to the trouble and expense of updating the MRE for Racecourse and creating a maiden one for Ascot, and updating the conceptual pit study and declaring the decision to mine if they were then going to embark on a further drilling programme?
We've been told to expect significantly increased production rates at Manica to be reporting in the 'next reporting period' and the updated conceptual pit study before the end of the year. 2 months left for both of those. And in the meantime the company can share progress with AA if they want to pre-empt things a bit. I don't think there is anything preventing from them getting on with this if felt appropriate.
RNS Sep 30th: "The Company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and define a maiden mineral resource for the Ascot prospect. The open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect will also be updated" ... and ..."The company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and subsequently will update the open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect which was previously completed in April 2021. The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022."
RNS Oct 6th: "Xtract is now incorporating all the geological and geochemical data from the Ascot prospect into a geological model which will be used to estimate a maiden Mineral Resource (JORC 2012) for the Ascot prospect. In tandem with this, a revised resource estimate is in preparation for the Racecourse deposit. This will then be used as the basis for an updated conceptual open pit mining study."
Been doing a bit of digging back to pre phase 2 when they had the raise to fund the exploration phase. There was a requirement to secure the necessary funding to have it in place to sign the drilling contract. They needed a couple of rigs that could work round the clock 7 days a week etc. âYou cannot make those sort of commitments, unless you are sure you have the money in place to drill the required contracted metresâ which I believe was 20k metres to start with?
So if a phase 3 were to be advanced then we could arguably assume that they would need to do the same thing. I donât see that a third phase is in their consideration when assessing working capital requirements for next twelve months, as in the audited report statement. It is a big ask to rely on revenue from a new mine so early on in its initial production stage.
If that is the case itâs not likely the company will want to have a fund raise at these levels. So that may be the reason as to why Colin appears to have changed tact from what was implied at AGM to do a phase 3 to now, what was said in last BR podcast where he was distinct in saying that there would ânotâ be a phase 3.
You can make plans based on what you have at any given time, But you cannot make plans based on an anticipated share price in the near future.
I suppose a lot would depend on the availability of drilling crews going into the first quarter of â23 and what flexibility there could be generally in mining contracts. But also to bear in mind is the capital outlay that will be set aside for strategic growth from that increased revenue, in looking for small, low cost start up, near production ready, minimal risk, safe jurisdiction Joint ventures that are important for the medium to long term longevity of the company
>>âŚâŚâŚ.should trump today's short term market affected copper price. <<
?You would think so ZM
Itâs a fair guess that Colin is hoping for a buying frenzy. To finally get to be in the position to trigger the buy back to be free from the restricting agreement will open up the project to, âThe other interested parties that are watching on.â Potentially more suitable than Anglo if they do decline their option. It has gone eerily quiet, due to final modelling and then the process that needs to conclude with AA.
If it was interpreted right at the AGM âto get a no from AA,â that process could likely happen at any time as there would not be any advantages in waiting any longer than necessary would there?
I still can't accept that today's spot copper price should dictate a major's willingness to secure a long term copper resource. With 10 year lead-in to production, and world-wide supply set for huge deficit and new discovery rate plummettng, getting your hands on a viable sizeable open pit resource with near surface capex funding early gains to be had in a safe jurisdiction ... should trump today's short term market affected copper price.
There are so few discoveries of any note coming through would not a sensible strategy be to secure the resource now rather than fight for it amongst others later?
"Goldman Sachs is forecasting the LME copper price to more than double from its current level, to $15,000 a ton in 2025".
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2022-10-27/Copper-the-most-important-metal-we-re-running-short-of.html
A good read. The world is slowly starting to realise!
"... I'm not in a hurry to buy any small copper mobs yet."
I think this sums up the general lack of uptake here.
Lol, who's got returns this year? Not me anyhow. My only winner has been my Turkish gas thing. Even the el cheapo coal stock I picked has gone nowhere, which surely takes a special skill in this market. I'm fairly confident that corporate action is coming soon enough on Solgold, after years of dicking around. My revolutionary battery stock gmg.v has incredible claims and incredible backing...Bosch, Rio, CATL people, WEF people even. I'm not in a hurry to buy any small copper mobs yet.
Iâm afraid I can only spare ÂŁ0.09 a day and I prefer to dollar cost average by buying every single day. I ignore the ÂŁ5 per trade charge from my broker because that will be far exceeded when the market finally realises the value of this asset.
The economic contraction and worsening fears of recession that has caused copper prices to drop 30 odd percent since last March looks like itâs finally showing some bullish signs. Another good dayâs trading currently just over 4%up at 3.60 from as low as 3.29 in July.
>>> Concerns of tight supplies in the long run are prevalent, with industrial players flagging increasing risks of shortages. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that the current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market.<<<
Looking promising, with hopes that demand may improve amid the possibility that the Fed could slow its tightening momentum.
CB was wrong about a quick resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, but will be a bit happier to see copper rising. Looks promising.
* Trading Economics.com
Colin quoted once in an old podcast with Zak. âItâs better to go into negotiation with a strong market cap than apologising for a week one.â
I suppose having a poor market cap, could be perceived that we are at a dead end, with a lot less option to take the project any further with more of a need to sell, as any further raise now will have too much dilution. It would potentially put AA in a stronger position at the negotiating table, but as we will now be getting meaningful income contribution now from fairbride, which has been confirmed it has now gone into full production, so would assume that means they are now running the high grade ore through the plant, and not the low grade material to run up the plant they found whilst stripping off the overburden. So now, that wouldnât necessarily be the case as we could self fund any further exploration. So not having a stronger market cap will not necessarily matter.
itâs a waffle theory at least and the only one I can come up with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDHYISLK6QQ
If you can spare the time this 35 minute video from the oft-called âking of miningâ, Ivanhoeâs Robert Friedland, is recommended viewing. Aside from being a fascinating watch, it has totally reinforced my belief in my copper plays. Dunno why this passed me by earlier in the year!
Maybe those tiddlers are Porvenerial/Ted changing tack and now, incrementally, putting his total returns from a lifetime of Investing in up a mountain in the middle of nowhere copper plays into xtr?
I want an account fee of 9p!
I've wondered this as well, is it just to get the SP moving to prompt buying/selling?
Zero. I have a number of shares in a Fidelity ISA. Fidelity periodically sell off ÂŁ1-ÂŁ10 of my shares (depending on the quantity I hold) to pay the holding/admin fees that are associated with my ISA account. Could these sort of transactions account for some/majority of the very small share volume transactions that we see?
An idle observation on the quietest of days: Often, related to any share on LSE, there are tiny transactions that seem to make no sense. With stocks where there is a much higher number of transactions this can sometimes be explained by a bit of housekeeping by brokers, rounding things off, etc. But on a lightly traded AIM stock like XTR? Today so far, half of the 6 transactions posted have been for a value of ÂŁ10 or less. The most recent for about 10p.
Does anyone have any insight into the workings of the stock market that can explain these tiny transactions?
PLEASE ... don't anybody mention coded messages between traders. These days there are plenty of secure end to end messaging options that are far more effective than buying 1 share! If indeed that ever really happened.
Also Caravel are going to seek financing to build a mine, rather than sell, so their share price is significantly discounted on the basis it will be a long time to see value.
Just had a quick look at their annual report:
"The Company raised around $4.7M in a ($3.0M) placement and ($1.7M) rights issue to fund drilling, technical studies and project development activities. The Company continued to enjoy strong support from new and existing shareholders demonstrating confidence in the Companyâs copper assets and a clear focus on progressing the project towards development"
"A major milestone was the delivery of a Pre-feasibility Study (PFS) and a maiden Ore Reserve Estimate for the
project in July 2022. The Ore Reserve (JORC 2012) is 583.4Mt at 0.24% copper for 1.42Mt contained copper (at 0.10% cut-off)"
Look at Caravel Minerals again, which weâve often used as a benchmark here. Mcap AUS$92m, or about ÂŁ50m. 5p in XTR terms, fully diluted. Thatâs for what - 1.4Mt Cu and $1.0bn NPV? So perhaps XTR would move to 5p plus 1-3p for African assets if similar figures were declared? Less any discount for a âCB factorâ. As others have said, we just need a formal resource statement and value placed on it to get the next leg up.