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Yes, primarily because one is awesome and the other is rubbish.
Copper prices back in the late 90’s when Newcrest opened its initial open cut mine at Cadia hill, were sub $1. Nearly 400% increase since then. Even taking into account the inflation adjustment of about 75% increase it shows how rising copper prices from increased demand has and will further drive exploration toward lower economic cut off grades along with the advancements made in mining extraction and separation technologies, which means more resources old and new have a better chance of being economically recoverable since when Cadia Hill was first financially modelled.
So although geologically Cadia hill and RC are a good comparison, they couldn’t be any further apart from their financial evaluations in their own very different social and economic climates.
Close on Friday was $8780 ($3.92 lb)
https://www.ifcm.co.uk/market-data/commodities-prices/copper
Cu $8,440.5 looking like a possible strong end to year.
Steve
Current share in issue are approx 850m, however with unexercised options/warrants the fully diluted figure will be around 1bn (assuming the share price is above 10p)
Cheers
James
Just out of curiosity, how many shares are actually in issue? Reason for asking is because everywhere I read, it says there's 850m, yet people are saying there's 1/1.1 billion.
Cheers
Hey Ian
Without checking they have issued approx 250m shares since the intra day high.
Cheers
James
Approximately answered my own question I think via RNS on shares in issue versus intraday high price of about 9.5p. Market cap about £80 m.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VobK1e7-qTg
Manica at 5min 40 secs in
Oh and reiterated commercial production end of year.
Clip up from Empress presentation at red cloud mining conference, they have reported first gold pours completed and stated they are receiving revenue from Manica.
>>>the modelling will be able to track some strike length particularly from holes like 13 that has a 28m intersect of 0.45CuEq<<
Hole 11 was the hole I mistook 13 to be that had high grade gold This from hole 11 assay summary.
>> Of particular interest are the significant intervals of comparatively gold-rich mineralisation encountered in the upper part of the hole which may be indicative of a mineral zonation system at Racecourse
Apologies, was tired and bleary eyed on phone last night.
Hi Andrew, may I ask your reasoning behind only a 20-30 million GBP added valuation for Ascot?
Would it not amount to more than that based on the extent of mineralisation now over a Km and of higher grade gold in particular and silver. From what we know, there is adequate intervals of boreholes to support an inferred MRE
If I recall correctly (without checking posting history) iceberg commented previously that an inferred resource is ‘generally’ discounted by about 50% over ‘measured’
To show a more comparable resource example only, let’s look at Cadia Hill, Newcrest’s initial open pit that was production ready in ‘98
>>> Ultimately, a resource totaling some 352 million tonnes at 0.63 g/t gold and O.16 per cent copper, or 6.8 million ounces contained in situ gold and 0.5 million tonnes of copper was estimated<<
The resource was eventually classified as mostly ‘measured’ after a total of 369 drill holes were completed for approximately 157 000 metres that formed the basis of a feasibility study that led to board approval to proceed with development in mid-1996
>>>Improved understanding of the geology of the mineralised system also indirectly contributed to subsequent discoveries in the Cadia area.<<
Shows the amount of work there is still to be done at Bushranger for an acquirer with the above paragraph showing how a similar path to cadia discoveries, will be followed at bushranger, but with the ‘added’ significant difference that, there is a further open pit potential from BR’s 2nd significant porphyry, Ascot
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/294566549_Cadia_Hill_From_discovery_to_a_measured_resource_-_A_case_study
Hi Andrew
Looking at the below, which we know was sold for 170m upfront and 60 deferred consideration.
I get copper revenue of 6.3bn, using 8k per tonne, and gold revenue of 0.5bn using 1750 per oz. So 6.8bn total, if you then take the Eva project sale price you get between 2.5%-3.5% of in ground value (170-230 sales price).
https://cumtn.com/operations/eva-copper-project/overview/
I think the Eva project is more mature, but good to see there is so much headroom between your 1.75% (I use a similar figure) and what Eva sold copper mountain for assuming I’ve not messed up on the calc.
Cheers
James
Even if we discount any Gold value and only use Cu %
Assuming 0.27% Cu
500mt
$7700 POC in calc (used by Newcrest at Cadia East)
1.75% in ground value
0.84 GBP to USD
500mt x 0.27 = 1.35MT x $7700 = $10.4B x 1.75% =$182M
$182M = £154.56M
=circa 15.5p (1 Billion shares fully diluted)
Probably add 2 to 3p for Ascot and 2 to 3p for FB
My calcs with different realistic assumptions, keep bringing me back to 15p (min) to 20p.
With a a following wind and a bit of luck we may get sp to 25p (equivalent) inc FB???
Not only Ascot Guys, CuEq from RC will have no doubt had a boost from the high grade intersections found in the ‘hole in the model’ those are serous numbers that the modelling will be able to track some strike length particularly from holes like 13 that has a 28m intersect of 0.45CuEq and 26 with comparable zones amongst others. These lateral zones are quite extensive across Racecourse. Similar to the 3 lateral zones of high grade gold and copper at Ascot that has been traced over 1km of strike there.
>>>Significant intervals of gold mineralisation have been intersected on the western side of the Racecourse Inferred Mineral Resource in an area with no previous historical drilling, which will be incorporated into an updated Racecourse resource model
· The best intercept is from drill hole BRDD-22-054;
· 26m at 1.64g/t Au (1.24% CuEq) from a downhole depth of 338m
§ Including: 18m at 2.28g/t Au from a downhole depth of 346m
HI James
I was really just looking at Cu % but you are correct, their Au is better (but Ascot Gold values may still surprise from looking at some drill results). I would assume that our costs would be a lot less as we are open pit and not block cave - which may help to off-set their higher Au values?
Yes, I was surprised at $7700 used. Hopefully that may be $8k + with our calcs, assuming POC keeps rising over next few months??
Hi Andrew
Thanks for posting, aren’t the grades much higher than what XTR are likely to have? It’s 0.49 g/t AU and 0.27% CU, or around 0.6% cueq (unless my maths are bad).
Interestingly they are quite conservative with the prices used.
Cheers
James
A very welcomed post Andrew, I’m sure it will help settle some members nerves with the comparisons, and with RC mineable by open pit, that should have huge implications on the projects initial economic potential that will satisfy a big buyer such as Newcrest, as has been said, are perceived to be the more obvious acquirer due to their already presence close by.
Cadia DFS helps toward ‘painting that positive picture’ in the absence of Xtract’s forthcoming statements and mining study, that there will be enough economically recoverable copper and some gold shown at Rc along with Ascot and all the other added project potential, to give an acquirer the confidence to warrant further de risking to take it to the next stages.
That is all that needs to show from the modelling, along with all the other supporting evidence that will add further asset value.
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-11/221111_Cadia%20PC1-2%20Feasibility%20Study%20demonstrates%20strong%20financial%20returns%20-%20Market%20Release.pdf
This is obviously only a small part of cadia
" with the development of PC1-2 accounting for approximately 20% of Cadia’s published Ore Reserves".
and is block cave mining so will be more expensive than our open pit.
Some interesting comparisons:
Cadia East PC1-2
0.27% Cu average grades
16 year LOM
280Mt
Copper price economic assumption 3.5 lb ($7700/ t)
It would seem from the info that has been released by Xtract or from CB's implications, our figures compare favourably with these (obviously they have not been confirmed).
IF CB's comments are correct and we have 500mt, then at 0.27% (seems reasonable assumption and the one I have been using) there is no reason to think that a major would not be interested in what we have. Whether that translates into a 10p, 20p or 30p buy-out remains to be seen !
Come on Newcrest , there's a better prospect just down the road :)
Some one must be bored at xtr :
https://twitter.com/resourcesxtract/status/1591140728448901120?s=46&t=eHZlUvguFwRM7FWaN_2d-Q
Latest xtr tweet :
https://twitter.com/resourcesxtract/status/1591137427594547200?s=46&t=iDbzPhzZqgF_pe-GrAFmmw
I’m thinking the Footrot results are in and there’s more work needed (so they were buried in the Ascot RNS)
In addition to the Ascot drilling, two exploration drill holes, FTDD-22-001 and 002 completed at the Footrot prospect, about 7km south-southeast of Racecourse, intersected lengthy intervals of alteration and iron sulphide mineralisation along with traces of copper and possible gold indicator minerals. This could suggest proximity to a mineralised porphyry - further modelling of the geophysical results here will be required.
Shouldn’t be any reason to withhold footrot assays as we have previously had all the remainder of RC and Ascot. Good point regarding the share options, you may be right too about the survey results Cygnus, can only hope.
I still think another webinar after all the resource estimates, 3D modelling and new pit concept along with survey lines with a narrative will be an ideal opportunity for Colin to ‘eventually’ be able to champion bushranger if all that earlier optimism is proved to be just. Particularly if AA don’t want back in.
The silence now is deafening, can’t be much longer to wait since Colin asked shareholders to hang on in there and have a bit more patience.
A bit!!!
I feel like a kid who was given a new bike at Easter and was told he was not allowed to ride it until Christmas.