George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
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wtf........£1.53 based on greed !!! happy days
The way I estimate the possible special dividend is to 'guess' the potential Cu content of BR, 'guess' a $ figure for Cu/T (which is difficult because one has to guess how far forward AA & CB are looking) then 'guess' what % figure would be used for the value of the Cu in the ground. I have heard estimates for this from 1% to 4% and this figure incorporates the jurisdiction the resource is in, the various standards of JORC achieved, the strip ratio, the local facilities (power, access, local available manpower) and a bunch of other things I can't imagine.
As you may have guessed (there's that word again), there's a tad's worth of guessing going on. Even so, I find it difficult to see this coming in at less than 20p unless it really has been sugar coated. But then, no matter how you look at it, it is huge. There are at least 2 porphyries and probably more (possibly around half a dozen if survey anomalies that have been hinted at are indeed due to metalisation). So, to put an edge of caution on my estimate I will predict a special dividend (not sp) of 18p.
Anything above the 0.08p (x200 = 16p) I paid back in mid 2016 will be acceptable :-)
50p. LTH and have been steadily buying (alas) over last 18 months. one day the tide will turn and / or the ship will come in.
$1 billion finally agreed by AA after Colin had shown some great negotiating prowess, finally offering 100% of the project, all of the other licences and use of his office swivel chair.
LOL I was sitting at my desk bored.. any higher than 20p?
Has competitive bidding started already?
20p sp
12.25P
F100
Thanks folks. Sort of what I was thinking but nice to have some reaffirmation.
The added benefit to this arrangement is, as indicated Mardel: there will not be a mad panic to offload shares at an elevated price. Also, we will be left with shares in a mining major and XTR just before what appears to be the start of a metals super cycle. Now we just need RC & Ascot to deliver....
Is likely to be a cash dividend payment or part divi part new shares of the acquiring company. Paid direct into any accounts that shares are held.
Holders would retain all existing Xtract shares after.
Seems to be the most popular opinion
To then take profits, once proceeds are withdrawn from trading account/s and transferred to your linked current account you will then be liable for capital gains tax if shares are held outside of an ISA. SIPPS have withdrawal thresholds where tax then becomes liable
Just wondering what will happen with our shares and how we will take our profits once the agreement to sell BR is in place. I'd imagine that we'd be paid a cash sum for each share held, rather than triggering a mad selling panic to benefit from an increased share-price from the sale of BR. Can anyone shed any light on this?
"If the JORCs for both Racecourse and Ascot come in around the 1.5mt mark after phases 1 & 2, then that is nowhere near a 'gimme' in my book and I will definitely be left feeling misled"
Tbh 1.5mt is probably circa 15p buy-out + 2p min for FB =17p sp ??
If offered 17p now I would take it.
Maybe my expectation of CB have been beaten down over the years, but I would not be surprised at 1.5mt for RC and Ascot and feel that would be in the parameters of the "CB factor"
I wouldn't feel pleased, surprised or annoyed at 1.5mt. Any annoyance I did have would be eased with a £2.5M payout (not profit I should say). Mere bagatelle compared to some declared LTH holdings a few years ago!
Andrew - It seems very reasonable to assume there is substantially more copper/gold to be added to the resource by continuing the exploration of Ascot and other prospects within the EL5574 licence (and beyond). Therefore, if the new JORCs for Racecourse and Ascot fall a little short of the 2mt target after phases 1 & 2, then I certainly won't be feeling misled or disappointed. In fact, I would be more than a little disappointed if XTR were to waste more time and money on a phase 3 if we are essentially close enough to the (arbitrary) target for a 'gimme'... especially when a decision to mine can be used to trigger the buy back clause anyway.
However, if the JORCs for both Racecourse and Ascot come in around the 1.5mt mark after phases 1 & 2, then that is nowhere near a 'gimme' in my book and I will definitely be left feeling misled. And I won't be alone.
Come on CB... put an end to all this niggling and suspicious speculation. Blow the bloody doors off the thing and give us all the best Christmas ever!
"So; based on Bird's Clarification of the 'Misunderstanding' at the AGM are we to now assume the 'imminent' total resource update will show 2MT?"
No. That's not what I understood from his AGM comments.
I think it was more like that there will be at least 2mt at Bushranger but we wont prove it all up just from our drilling. But either it will be shown in time that there is 2mt + (maybe 3mt) from more drilling done by the buyer or we may get attributed value of 2mt if we prove up say 1.7Mt and the buyer will be happy to pay for 2mt as there is a very high chance that there will be way of 2mt or 3mt + at Bushranger after a lot more drilling is done by a major.
Hence Cbs comment about leave some "sweeties in the box" re excellent GeoPhys results and very interesting areas of interests not drilled by us.
So technically CB was right to claim there is definitely 2mt at Bushranger - but he didnt say at the time we would be the company to prove it all up by our drilling.
That's my understanding from what was reported at the AGM
Whatever one's view about CB (and I am as suspicious as anyone else), my understanding (as a relative newcomer) is that the African assets, alone, probably justify the current SP.
So unless CB has been downright dishonest, a disposal of Bushranger should move the SP substantially above where it is now. The lack of interest, at this level, probably owes as much to general nervousness about the global economic outlook as to nervousness about CB.
He does rather seem to come across as the proverbial "liar standing on top of a hole in the ground" however with a lot of fingers in a lot of pies.
Let's hope that, at his age, XTR might prove to be his last great hurrah!
In his defence, JLP's SP has only gone south since he stepped down.
So; based on Bird's Clarification of the 'Misunderstanding' at the AGM are we to now assume the 'imminent' total resource update will show 2MT? - Or will that be a misunderstanding too?
It was fairly recent so he must have known the final figures, let's say with 90% certainty?!
Tnx for the clarification Andrew.
>>I think it was just another ..."Misunderstanding " :) - And why am I not surprised...
i'll admit that my range trading xtr for years now having been plenty fruitful, has helped my view of CB as a cult 'ero develop, Andrew.. and, in fairness, I can understand why - plenty/many - others might take a very different view to me on CB..
Generally, it's all gambling .. and anything can happen in gambling..
Gixxer
I believe he has since qualified that statement (at AGM I think) and said he was talking about all of Bushranger?
So CB's view implied that we may not prove up 2mt with our drilling but the buyer will assume its highly likely there will be 2mt in all the licence.
I think it was just another ..."Misunderstanding " :)
NtM
Well, that's definitely a view some could take. All I can say is that you are a lot more forgiving and understanding than I would be :) I would say your view absolves CB of all blame for any outcome!
Isn't he on camera stating RC has 2Mt and is a T1 asset?
Steve
I agree with you on timescales v resource guidance, but in defence of CB the 2mt comment was an early doors comment so that may have been more in hope that expectation and not based on empirical evidence. So CB doing what he does, but not saying 2mt when he KNEW it wont be.
Its noticeable that 2mt figure has not been mentioned for some time and since the model was being finalised..
I'm sure there are some on this board who would still explain away an 8p buy-out or 1mt as CB just being CB and doing his usual thing of exaggerating so we should not be surprised or even critical of him if those are the outcomes.
I'd be one of those some, Andrew.
Anything can happen 'digging' each and every 'ole(s).. and when early 'oles results are positive, human nature is almost always to get bullish....
You could equally say CB 'misled' on where the Price of Copper was going.. but people can be endlessly wrong on that... it's as nebulous as, for eg, what copper might or might not be found in that next Bushranger 'ole drilled.. etc..
Is she or Isn't she.. showing my age here.
We need some hard facts CB no more speculation thankyou, retail is detail
F100