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That 1 share shows up, doesn't someone here say that means an RNS is coming?
"more than 20% ABOVE the asking price"
Value is not a subjective and is, ultimately, what someone is prepared to pay for something.
In XTR's case the contractual independent assessor might skew this by ignoring factors that might increase the value to any particular bidder in a price war. A recent example of this that I have come across is a friend's house being 'valued' by a surveyor for divorce settlement purposes, ignoring the crazy housing market where properties were flying off the shelves for more than 20% of the asking price.
An independent assessor is going to try to be very careful not to undervalue or overvalue.
Maybe AA could stump up the price specified by the 2nd independent assessment, then flip the asset on the open market to the highest bidder. I wonder if there is a safeguard against that!!
>>So XTR can refuse the first evaluation and then have to accept the second. - I'm not 100% on that, however, as I've mentioned before I'm sure AA legal team would not make an easy out of the contract. Otherwise it would be easy to reject any offer from AA just to break the contract and sell to another company.
I guess, once all the DTM docs are out XTR could get offers from other companies. perhaps those near to out licences :) - Should the independent valuations be low it could be show that higher offers are on the table, possible leverage there.
Bird has suggested that the independent valuations would not favour us especially with the limited drilling in areas to date. Third party interest would help IMO should we end up going down the independent evaluation process.
Alright xtractors..
I've done my bit for the team with a few buys - including today- here recently ..
Here's to less p*ss xtraction and more value xtraction in the coming months
We have the 20% as leverage and the other 3 licences as leverage. If AA want it, they'll offer a fair price IMHO.
Gixxer, but surely XTR have to be prepared to accept the adjudication. They may accept the first evaluation but decide not to go for the second. I presume....
Thanks Jezzoo, the price may simply be rising in anticipation of good news from CB - to be reported , or based on actual good news that has leaked.
As I understand it, the company can only refuse the 1st independent evaluation. A 2nd, and final one, has to be accepted.
Saying that, we have the 20% as leverage as I'm pretty sure any potential buyer will not want a partner. That is our ace...
this afternoon with CB talking about Bushranger according to what I've heard.
Should be worth a listen judging by the SP rising this morning.
Yes, but one which CB can refuse to accept. There are others waiting to consider the resource.
Except its an independent valuation, and that will be based on current copper price.
Healthy looking moves this morning.
Just one observation about the comments that it's the current 'here and now' price of Cu that's important.
When CB discusses the value of BR with AA, if AA want to play that game CB can conveniently say "O.K, we will take this to the wider market". I.e, exactly what he wants to do.
AA need to consider the longer game if they want to curry favour with CB. In this regard the future price of Cu is relevant.
auction...
Commodity prices are purely driven by current demand. Historically the big producers live in the now, and is not likely to change any time soon.
Previous study analysis was that a positive NPV return could be achieved at a 0.15% Cu cut-off with a production rate of 20Mt per annum at a copper price of US$5 per lb. The Conceptual Study concluded that the Racecourse deposit may be economically recovered at a copper sales price above US$4 per lb.
This, all based on the inherited 71mt resource and stating that, opportunities exist to improve the economic viability by increasing the size of the Mineral resource in particular.
So until these figures at least show a positive NPV at or so many points below copper futures price, they will not get maximum value for shareholders.
There is no reason to suggest the updated mining study will not show a significantly improved range of forecasts based on the same scenarios as before.
That’s not to say you shouldn’t strap in…..or on (still don’t know which it is) this could fly anytime as fomo kicks in.
Price moving up, leaky leaky or just plenty of optimism. Time will tell.
That's broadly what I expect tbh as it's in my 15p to 20p band
Just not sure if its this Dec or next !
18p by 23rd Dec :)
F100
"And it could happen at any time."
Spot on Jez, any time is right
It could happen in a years time, as CB waits for the POC to keep increasing :)
And for that reason I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend ...!
There, said it!
I bed & ISA'd my wife's holding a few weeks back. I ISA'd at 3.4 but held off the Bed bit as I thought I would sell that lot as we rose a few tenths. Cash positive move. So she has enjoyed double her original holding underwater for an uncomfortably long time.
If we get a nice move up soon we can enjoy the luxury of the original shares appreciating with a stop loss above her originally planned exit price.
As I said to her ... you wouldn't want to be out of this ...
And it could happen at any time.
This feels a bit like the waiting around we were doing back in November 2020. A couple of months later and 8p+ appeared as if out of nowhere. Looking forward now to all the "whoosh/choo choo/wouldn't want to be out of this/etc" posts !
Copper inventories are down to a matter of days. I sippose that can only go down to zero, unless you start to factor in a waiting period for delivery. Demand is growing on a macro level. Whatever the short term lag from China's slowdown in manufacturing and housebuilding will be sw2allowed up in the medium term from worldwide green demand.
Copper producers are running low on copper producing mines. And new ones have a 10 year lead in to production.
I predict we will see an increasing disconnect between 'today's' PoC and what a producer will pay for a new asset. The producers can't afford to wait 2 years for the owner of an asset to sell as the price of copper is not higher enough yet, or because the producer cannot justify the buy price for the same reason. Producers need to get assets on board now to fill their production vacuum in ten years time.
The old way or pricing an asset will change, and soon if not now, and producers will be looking at the future value.
Has there been much competition for assets in the past? My feeling is producers will have to compete for their future survival.
We seem to have a regular debate about 'copper will be higher in the future so that means a better price now'.
Same answer every time. Firstly, copper futures are almost always similar to current price. Secondly, can anyone highlight an M&A deal that was based on a higher copper price than existed at the time of that deal?
To get a better deal we need a higher current copper price. If you don't have patience to wait for the right conditions to sell, you will end up worse off. Obviously I don't want to wait years for that, but I am very happy to wait a few months.
CB could be waiting for market conditions to improve but considering the expected Cu price over the next few years that would mean an unacceptable wait for most shareholders. Having said that the price of Cu has perked up recently which is always helpful during negotiations. It is so much better to be in discussions when the price is increasing on almost a daily basis compared to a moribund price which takes the urgency off the situation.