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Really good point Andrew, the only thing you could have maybe considered is CB’s obvious agenda in driving up the share price to take the fund raises at a higher market cap. This has been beneficial to to all shareholders, or will ultimately be to some degree. But yes, I agree this could be weighed up against future credibility of his predictions as rhetoric “if” there is a significant underestimation in eventual BR estimate.
We do understand that trust is already an issue for most that have been involved in CB projects before. We all hope that BR is that 1 in a 100 that goes on to be a mine that potential from exploration so far has shown. If it is sold in a reasonable timeframe then I’m sure all real investors will thank CB for managing to string them along that maybe would have got bored long ago and moved on. Missing out on what is still the best exploration story on LSE
All fair enough Gixxer.. and you make good/strong points as a rule.
Sure CB is better at strategy and selling than implementing .. but that's often the way the World over.. and, in fairness, he appointed a good 'implementation' - Drilling - team at BR .. so you could say he has learned from previous mistakes.
Generally, combining glass half full versus glass with have empty base perspectives across a body of posting gives balance in the round, I think.. and my way of trying to get to that end is half empty posting on hangover days and half full posting on no hangover days ! But others might have better mechanisms to that end.. indeed, I hope they do :-)
FWiW - I don't subscribed to the comments regarding him using companies as a cash cow, I'm sure he has enough and doesn't need to take a few 100k salary. I think he's be better placed in the background seeking out new projects and letting a dedicated CEO to do the day-to-day running of the company!
He complained about the cost of a CEO some time back, but then he bought on Alastair Ford who 'appears' to have done feck all but take a salary. That money would have been better spent towards a dedicated CEO IMO. We can, just about, afford it now.... can't we?
>> Out of interest are there other message boards or websites that people are using regularly for XTR and their research.
The XTR telegram group is very good for research. There are two groups - a larger one with over 218 members that is run by the Sunday Roast team and a smaller with 36 members that is less busy but still useful. You will need to search for an invite though. Last time I tried to post the link on here I was immediately banned.
NTM - If your sift through my grumbling you will find that I have praised Bird, and indeed defended him on here.
IMO Bird likes to spend his time looking for new projects, the next big payday if you will. The problem is he's not the best of day to day company running IMO .We'd have had far less cash calls if he's been more focused on getting the current assets on our books generating cash. I'd be very pi@@ed if he goes and buys another 'pet-project' before the sale of BR.
>>In conclusion, I remember not that long ago when this share was close to half a penny. - You have to ask yourself why it was so low, CB has been in charge a long time and the SP/MCap is now lower than when I first invested (Under JN/CB). Almost 10 years ago! When will investors see the much awaited return on investment?
Agreed Andrew.. and you look to be balanced in your posting as a rule imho..
NtM
Good post. Very balanced.
My issue with CB is that he doesnt seem to understand that there is a price to pay for his overly optimistic comments (timescale or delivery) . Failure to deliver what and when, is paid for with interest, via lack of credibility or belief on future comments.
My analogy would be telling your staff that they will get an unexpected £1000 xmas bonus, but only then giving them £500. If they werent expecting any bonus and you gave them £500 they would all be happy.
So in both examples they both get the same amount of money, but in one scenario people are disappointed and in the other very happy - with the same outcome.
Expectation management is not CBs strong point.
As ever you make some fair and good points Gixxer. But I think your below post is a bit unbalanced:
There are plenty of good things that CB has done here and /or has the clear potential to do in the not too distant future here..
Fairbride 'ard rock might - hopefully/in the end - turn out to be a nice cash cow play out over 5 years plus for eg.. And buying Bushranger licence might - hopefully - turn out to be a good or great even play in the end .
Also Colin Bird is a good Salesman which is generally very important towards getting the chance of doing something great 'in the end' on AIM.. and indeed in life. (Most of the companies in this AIM Sector takes many years of Investment to have even chance of being winners in the end, and you need a good Salesman to even stay afloat for those interim years imho)
Also Colin Birds understanding of this space generally and his strategic orientation within that is truely excellent imho.
Generally, while you're undoubtedly excellent at pointing out the not inconsiderable flaws of CB, towads balance, it would be nice if you also dedicated some of your considerable brainpower in the direction of pointing out positives here too, please.
In conclusion, I remember not that long ago when this share was close to half a penny.
Out of interest are there other message boards or websites that people are using regularly for XTR and their research.
I use this as the main message board, follow copper price and news via bbg mainly. Occasionally look at advfn message board and of course, keep up to date on RNs etc.
Am I missing a great source of knowledge from somewhere?
I would take that appointment.....assuming he first got the sp rise he did in FTX :)
I wouldnt be bothered what happened after that !
Blimey guys, you don’t portray yourselves in the greatest light as the most astute investors. CB said this, CB said that, missed timelines, failed projects, tips from mates and using Twitter or any other social media platform in evaluating your positions Surely investors would not be here if they believed in his supposed rhetoric. You must have done your research when you are initially invested and I would hope continually re-evaluated your position at every turn. So if it is not sentiment that keeps us invested, it must be either FOMO or we actually have some faith in CB to make us money. You simply cannot use being underwater as an excuse, that you would lose too much if you sold up now. That just shows either fear of losing more elsewhere, a laziness to research other opportunities or an inability to spot value where there is undervalue in this, or another stock.
“I read on Twitter,” is the modern day equivalent of, “Some bloke down the pub said!” There is no substitute for doing your own research where our hard earned money is concerned. Taken from company website, presentations, published official news releases, and quality sources of general information, such a the internet, wikipedia, quiz nights, books of fun facts or my go to reliable source, my mate Mad Martin down the Newt and Cucumber. I have had some of my most wonderful opportunities in life that have stemmed from the pub. I met my first wife in the Newt, she came highly recommended to me with her phone number that was scrawled on the cubicle wall in the bogs.
Come to think of it, that ended quite badly. Just hope I don’t get 5hit on again
Sam Bankman -Fried possibility getting new job here ?
And down we go.. 6 trades
NtMu - Certainly not averse to risk, Almost all of my trading has been on the AIM market over the last 10 years and almost all of that in Bio/Oil/Mining. (Some painful losses in bio taking 'tips' from mates)
The problem here is that we have a Exec that continually makes fundamental, and ultimately costly, mistakes when investing in new projects. Wasn't one of the latest finding out the mine was too far out in the 'sticks to get power to or transport ore'? - And this was 2/3 years down the line, I mean.....
Not only that he's constantly BSing shareholders in terms of timelines and, much more importantly, forward guidance on ultimate return. He sort of reminds me a little of an 80yo Jay Cartwright, every knows it's BS but not quite sure how much...
How is one supposed to make an informed choice in terms of selling/buying when you have to try and filter through the BS? - For the life of me I'm shocked he can get away with saying what he likes, verbally, with no legal repercussions. Not so long ago he was telling shareholders in a presentation BR would have a 100y mine life!
The faster he releases this update and sells BR the better, for me. I can then stop giving the Old Dog a hard time...
I am a sticker for detail, it's the old academic in me, but it's made me some decent returns over the years. I'm also quite forgiving, no one is free from feck-ups but sooo many over the years...
Jamesiescakes and Andrews back and forth on Fairbride Gold output grow out interested me a lot and I'm in broad agreement with the conclusions they're reaching via that interaction.. (not ldeal but ok .. and as CB over promises as a rule, I'll take ok.)
PS: The best 'Deramper' here is Gixxer imho.. but he's just pointing out 'home truths' instead of looking to de ramping this as a hardcore objective.... he has a strong micro detail orientation and a longterm perspective here too.. and there are indeed plenty of 'home truths' in the CB Universe.. and I respect Gixxer's posting a lot .. but as Howzap reminds us, xtr and such like is/are high risk playing (and players need to be prepared for all eventualities imho ..as who really knows what drilling given 'oles might or might not throw up .. and the only way to find out is to go ahead and drill the 'ole .. and CB is a(n) 'ave a go 'ero in that sense imho)
"There *is* money to be on made on CB companies- you just need to pre-empt the ramps"
As we havn't had any CB ramps for some time and the sp is currently very low, I take that statement by Kwad as his encouragement to buy now !
Bloody subtle rampers, you can spot them a mile off :)
Yes, Ted is a much better standard of de-ramper. He actually makes me go and do research sometimes :)
>>>I read some rumours on twitter last month..
Really! That says all you need to know about Colin’s stalker. Who clearly did not have a clue that exploration mining was risky when came on the scene a few years ago. What a shame that enthusiasm could not be put to better use.
Colin has been really silent, I read some rumours on twitter last month. Have a search for yourselves. At least 2 investors have made complaints to FCA/AIM. I have been pushing people to make complaints about CB for months now. Though of course, due to confidentiality- they cant say if they are finally investigating him or not.
Lack of news across the board on all his cashcows, sorry, I meant 'businesses'.
In this market- the market reaction to ramping is really dampened. His Sunday Roast salesman ramps are like water off a ducks back now.
The market is looking at the debacle of BZT-Caerus in Cyrpus for example- and its one of many red flags against how Colin Bird does businesses. BZT has taken out a £1 million loan- due for repayment in some months with no realistic source of income in the horizon after Caerus collapsed. People are weary and wary of the way he does business. He did it in BZT, and can do the same here in XTR. Totally unreliable.
I suspect he is going to come out with a massive ramp and then issue another round of placement. But as I said, we are in different times- i dont even think the biggest of CB ramps would get the SP here above 4 or 5. This is not 2020.
Again, dont take my word for it- the numbers dont lie:
Colin Bird’s AIM record, as of November 22
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 3.1
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.4
Low SP because of the general market and lack of real news and also it is a Colin Bird company. I think there are many people who hadnt heard of the Birdman prior to 2020 but a lot more are now- and they are rightfully wary. Once bitten...
Colin Bird’s AIM record, as of November 22:
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 3.1
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.4
There *is* money to be on made on CB companies- you just need to pre-empt the ramps.
Anyone who didnt sell at 9.......
There has been quiet across ALL of Colin Birds nest of cashcow 'businesses'. There is a couple of rumours on twitter about his financial situation- have a search on twitter.
Dont forget- none of his AIM businesses every really progress- the only guaranteed thing that happens is he dips his hand into each company every year to pay a salary (for what work- i do not know).
The same concerns being made today about CB today, were made by others in 2020, 2019, 2018. Dont take my word for it- have a look back in LSE.
Ramp--->placing--->pay for salary to maintain UAE expat lifetyle and horseracing hobby--->SP crashes again due to dilution and non-progress--->new Sunday Roast interview or supposed acquisition ramp--->rinse and repeat.
And thats not just a 'belief' I have- the numbers dont lie:
Colin Bird’s AIM record, as of November 22:
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 3.1
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.4
It's a difficult question really. There will be a surge in value based upon the sale price and the perceived special dividend value, but there has to be some information on direction "after Racecourse"..... I.e. where is the next value being added from.
If it is managed well, the interim market cap could exceed the sale value.... but that's a possible scenario.... not a prediction from me.
"So say a shareholder has an average price of 5p and are bought out for, say, £150'000'000 (would be equal to a SP of 17.5p), would the shareholder have a potential 3.5x return, or would it be different based on the idea of XTR holding money back for the next step?"
My guess would be that some cash would be held back and you'd get a dividend based on say, 15p per share although some of that would be in the purchasers shares, plus keep your XTR shares.
>>I think its a bit too early to give any verdict on Bushranger and lump it with Moz Gold - Not fully there with that Andrew.
IMO, the saving grace at BR is that Bird was kept away by C19 and that we were already up and running with a great team running the show in Auz.
I have no doubt it would have been a shambles had Bird been more involved in the setting up of the project.