The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Investing. The decision to mine hasn't been made yet, at least not officially, only in a cosy podcast chat. We need an RNS to be certain
We don't have to fight Derek Chisora do we? SP is going tank if that happens
Colin has the hide of a Rhino, he's teaching me to have one too !
I haven't sold a bean despite my protestations, in fact I increased my shareholding by over 50% as this is so oversold it's ridiculous.
I never thought I'd get the chance to average down but it happened. A large %tage of my net worth is in here, I'm confident I'll make a profit I think but it's been a 600 lashes so far Colin, let's not make it a 1000.
I also think we may see a Directors buy RNS in the morning IMHO.
There have been a number of reasons why the sp tanked in a week, obviously CBs inability to manage expectations and posts stating that the mine will not be economic unless POC is at $11K+ , are two reasons.
However, I think the third reason is the confusion term "Decision to mine"
When CB stated this, many seemed to think (and some even said it ) they interpreted this as xtract intent on actually building the mine with a JV. One of CB's interviews even reinforced this view with a comment " we will need help with this"
Many understandably sold as they didnt want to wait so long (they thought), before they would start to see a return.
I think the DtM is best seen as more of a business plan that you would submit to a bank to secure a loan to show that you have a viable business plan and when and by how much profit will be made. For us its about triggering the buy-out option not an intent to actually build a mine. IMHO we are happy for AA to say no so we can go to the market.
IMHO those three factors all hit the share at the same time and caused the drop, then you add on a fourth - the fear factor of some panicking thinking "I'm going to lose ll my money" so sold.
So a four punch combination which put the sp on the floor . Down but not out !
Xtract sp is like Tyson Fury ...and looked what happened to him after he got up :)
Having scanned through the recent posts, this situation is similar to many that have occurred with other companies. We have a bulletin board full of anonymous posters where we may express our fear, greed, optimism and pessimism in our posts. We do not know who is genuine and who has an agenda. We assess posters and make up our own minds on them. We see who is objective and balanced by their posts.
Previously, with other companies I have developed models to try and project likely outcomes. They were good models as far as they went but I did not have the full facts, data and knowledge of the industry to make them really useful. I concluded that other factors were more Important, especially business fundamentals and management integrity and competence.
I don’t mind seeing criticism of management and other criticisms. But when made anonymously it seems weak to me. We can ask the question was the poster greedy, fearful, optimistic or pessimistic, or just lashing out because he has a paper loss on his investment?
IMO some good points have been made here and on XTR’s board structure.
For my twopenneth so much comes down to management, I.e. Mr Bird. As I see it he has integrity, a good knowledge of the industry, is commercial, appointed a good management team, is experienced in working with other parties/companies and is a good communicator with shareholders. IMO he may be on the optimistic side of the spectrum but there again so am I. I just prefer enthusiasm and optimism. As with other shareholders at the AGM i met him and his team and that helped me form my views, whether right or wrong.
Let’s not forget his foresight in acquiring Bushranger and other valuable projects when others saw no value in them. He has concluded various business agreements with other companies whose managements will have done their. due diligence on those projects and on him. That knowledgable and professional third party endorsement is something I value.
Now I am awaiting further news from the company in due course. Nothing has changed for me with regard to this investment. I wanted 2m tons but expected less as I thought the company would go down the decision to mine route on the basis of lower tonnage. This would probably result in AA declining the option and leaving the company free to negotiate with other companies, before or after any additional work to develop the tonnage further.
Investing 100: like you, I had a top up this morning. Even if BR was worthless, at these prices there's money to be made on African assets alone.
The way I see this working out assuming RC is not a money pit (to be proven one way or the other) is that further drilling will occur on Ascot to delineate its boundary more clearly. It may well be that Ascot is the real source of wealth and would be mined first making the mining of RC worthwhile. However, this is all going to take more time...
>>>> "not sure how long they have in the contract to deliberate now Colin's said the decision to mines been made."
I don't think voicing the 'decision to mine' is what gets things going. The DtM is a bit more complex than that, it is confusingly named. The Decision to Mine is a package of data, reports, economic viability studies, etc, and this would have have to all be presented to AA to invoke that clause and get them assessing the asset.
I expect what Colin is saying is that XTR has decided to present this Decision to Mine once compiled fully, as opposed to hitting that other trigger, the 2MT target.
IWTO - It is also worth reminding people that the study was done based on the 2018 JORC, which had 470kt of contained Cu Eq (the resource increased by lowering the cut-off as Steve pointed out in his analysis). We now have 1.1mt of contained Cu Eq and the vast majority of it - as far as I can tell by comparing the phase 2 drill hole map with the map/pit presented in the webinar - will sit within the walls of the conceptual open pit used in the study. So that's 350mt of waste dirt (that was coming out anyway) converted to pay dirt, which will yield an extra 630kt of contained Cu Eq. And the resource is likely to increase with further refining and the inclusion of Ascot (which is open in all directions).
Personally, I find it hard to see how a 134% increase in Cu Eq within what will be an almost identical pit, would do anything but significantly improve the economics. But everyone should do their own research and make their own decisions.
GLA who are holding until we reach the finish line! Are we nearly there yet Dad?!?
In case anyone needs a reminder, this is what was said in the July 2021 conceptual open pit modelling RNS:
"Optimal believe that the economic recovery and processing of ore with low grades between 0.1 - 0.2% Cu is pivotal for the economic viability of the Racecourse project ........Overall, Optimal believe that taking account of the project's large size and relatively low grade, conditions should support the efficient and productive mining of the deposit. Optimisation of the processing plant capacity, capital cost, metallurgical recoveries and operating cost will improve the economic viability......"
So the company and their advisors were always aware of the drivers of viability and already had thoughts 18m ago about where they'd look to try to achieve this.
For sure Steve. I guess this will hovver at these levels until some form of direction is seen, which is then we will see a decent bounce back. Too much debate has taken place the last few days and all are directionless. I guess all we have at this stage is instinct to go by.
Docit - I think this is so over-sold now that not only do we have zero value attributed to Bushranger but not enough value to the African assets. If people haven't sold already, there seems little point doing it now!
AIMHO. DYOR
It seems to me we have reached the journey where the fork lies ahead and all the debates we have will not give us a decisive path. However we do have a 50/ 50 chance of getting it right. That's not bad odds of either it being economically viable or economically unviable. I guess we'vw all had a lot worse odds in many things throughout life including investing in AIM. For me i'm happy to take those odds and all must make their own choices taking into account individual circumstances. Good luck in your decision making.
Andrew: "far too many unknows" ... lets hope they are known unknowns. Its the unknown unknowns I worry about!
"Xtract could be seen as nothing more than a play against future copper prices" ... I am taking a long hard look at that to diversify a little. Not without risks, as always, but I'm fairly convinced of the bull case for copper, and it may be more of a cert, or a sooner cert, than returns from XTR. Maybe I will hedge with Cu.
Thanks Iceberg, very interesting
My take away's:
Iceberg quote “ We don’t know yet whether it will be economically viable, however I think it should be.”
so, far too many unknows for anyone to be come to a definitive conclusion with info and resources we have.
Worst case, If its not economical at current POC (iceberg says it should be) , I think its highly likely that it will be later on with a higher POC. Xtract could be seen as nothing more than a play against future copper prices.
If you believe in that story, then just wait and hold. That's what I will be doing.
Were the assay results BRDD-22-047 & 48 ever published?
Those 2 holes are outstanding and are pretty key in the ongoing modelling imo
RNS 4th Aug:
Drill holes BRDD-22-047 and BRDD-22-048 were both drilled at an inclination of -60 degrees towards the northeast along the same line in the area between Racecourse and Ascot. Drill hole BRDD-22-047 completed at a final depth of 714.6m with drill hole BRDD-22-048 completing at a final depth of 969.6m. Subject to laboratory assays, both drill holes intersected several zones of altered volcanics with trace mineralisation, with BRDD-22-047 also intersecting some weak and locally moderate mineralisation from: 282-297m; 353-394m; and 527-532m.
Thanks for the update iceberg. It's proved useful to me
lol
Looks like a few who sold out with the scaremongering have possibly jumped into AFP.
Hello all.
Thanks again to iceberg for his opinion. I still hold all my shares and will continue to hold. The resource is not shrinking it is still getting bigger. I'm holding for the pay off .
Steve - They are consistently inconsistent.
One other clue to it being an inaccuracy is that the phase 1 and 2 drilling went into a lot of virgin ground and extended the footprint of the original ore body. I simply cannot see how those extensions only added 15% more copper.
Steve, maybe it was the independent consultants that chose to do that?
There is always a bigger fish, another drill campaign may well find another porphyry, more copper infill, more value etc.
The choices open to XTR is to either complete a phase 3 drilling campaign in the hope of increasing the resource significantly or sell to a bigger fish who can do what we did but on a larger scale and realise value that way.
A sale is my preference, Bushranger will not be worth nothing. It will have a value, but that value will be subject to the POC
Steve - last comment on this as I think I am just annoying people by continuing the debate. Ultimately, I can only go off what was written in the RNS by XTR. One clearly states a Cu cut-off and the other states CuEq. I've gone back and looked at other RNS and the only place I can a mention of a CuEq cut-off is in the latest RNS. It is possible that XTR are simply inconsistent in their reporting.
Steve - I still think it is just another inaccuracy.
If you have a cut-off for copper alone, then you will end up classifying good ore (that has low amounts of copper but high amounts of gold, silver etc) as waste. And there is no other cut-off grade mentioned for other metals.
I've had to filter Steve4077.
Like a stuck record.
Some people don't know when enough is enough.