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So here’s the question…. Will either publication of Q3 gold revenue (must be due soon, surely) or the pit model/ economic model (Feb?)move the SP? Or is XTR’s credibility so low now, that we won’t see any real movement until a deal is finally announced? Either way, I’m so underwater now I may as well wait for the endgame. But it would improve my angst if we saw a rise to the 4-5p level by end Q1. Is this likely?
At 4min mentions 7k 8k 9k 10k copper price
https://audioboom.com/posts/8204540-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr
AND another interview
At 17m 30 sec mentions $8K $9K and $10k copper
https://audioboom.com/posts/8201622-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr
Good post Andy. Shame XTR cannot seem to put together such presentations.
Interesting to note their progression over time:
2016 Maiden Resource
• 1.4Mt contained copper at
0.15% cut-off
• 529Mt
2021 Resource
• 53% increase in contained
copper at 0.10% cut-off
• 2.84 Mt contained Cu
• 1,180.6 Mt
• 48 Mo (ppm)
Obviously these projects take time to mature. I think most of us, early on, expected a 'quick' turnaround and sale. The above highlights more time is required. CB's forward guidance obviously has not helped in at all, especially with very few of us having experience of porphyry systems.
The latest interview was far better. CB must prepare for these interviews and, more importantly, temper his excitement.
Hopefully a decent sale in circa 12m time and we will all have forgotten this.
Iceberg been quiet re the Ascot MRE (Although, he sort of already called it in his latest blog). Are you still around IB?
Matty
this example from similar porphyry in Oz may be helpful to you.
5 year initial high grade, overall slightly larger deposit based on recent XTR MREs and low cut off grade applied.
Challenges for XTR versus this deposit are lower Cu grade and higher strip ratio however there is higher gold at XTR.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02570080-6A1110359?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Useful summary
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02599465-6A1122704?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
On that mine shows up economical at around $8/8.5K then on how it looks like POC, is going thet that will be a very big positive for sale in 2023.
Thanks
A444
In an interview just after 1,1mt RC RNS, I'm sure he said they would be using PC at 7K 8K 9K and 10K POC to see what the results were showing.
He didnt mention a POC above 10K
Have no point.
Was just asking, if what mentioned was right.
What's your point? It would be very instructive to see the economic model represented at a range of copper prices.
Just ask.
Is it right that CB has said that it will include working out using 3 different levels of POC?
Just to clarify..... I picked example numbers to illustrate my point below..... before anyone asks for my workings out...... there aren't any
If the economic model shows say an NPV of 500million requiring a POC of say $9500/te, then the saleability of that will depend on the potential purchasers idea of what the average price will be once in production.....
To be able to declare a decision to mine though, I wonder what NPV and IRR would be considered suitably robust...... and with all these expert predictions of YEARS of deficit and POC >$10K/te, what will be an acceptable POC basis.
I'm guessing that figures used in PFRs and DFRs in the last couple of years might be quickly becoming out of date.
Feels like a bit of a moving target
These consistent ~250k sells must be from entities paid in sells?! - If it's a PI they must be selling at a loss down at these levels...
Many analysts seems to think POC will take off in second half of the year but not significantly before.
I wonder if there will be some "delays" in the financial model to ensure release is when POC is at a certain level??
If the financial model shows its economic at way below whatever the current POC is at the time of release then that wont matter, but CB may want / need POC to be a higher so may delay release.
Maybe maybe not, but there is no way I can see a buy-out until Q4 2023 at the earliest.
Commodity analysts at Bank of America are cautiously more optimistic that copper prices will see a recovery in the second half of the year after a disappointing start. The bank sees prices potentially pushing above $12,000 per tonne.
"We maintain a cautious view into 2023, expecting prices to average $7,500/t ($3.40/lb) in the first quarter, before rallying to an average of $10,000/t ($4.53/lb) in 4Q23," the analysts said in their 2023 outlook.
Along with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs is also bullish on copper as it looks past near-term weakness. In early December, the financial institution upgraded its 12-month copper price target to $11,000 per tonne, up from its previous forecast of $9,000.
Goldman Sachs sees copper prices averaging 2023 around $9,750 per tonne, with the average price jumping to $12,000 per tonne by 2024.
1000km tunnel conveyors....saves on capex of another mine!
Howezap, I'm surprised you're not already speculating about whether Manica and Kakuyu join up.
You're a name plate poster here too howezap and extremely dedicated to your Bushranger posting.
So even a decent per cent of equivalence re no's of posts on fairbride from you would be much appreciated by me.
Thanks in advance and Nice to Michu
Can offer you some amateurish drivel MtN, or repetitive parsley ;-). (I love that phrase) as I prefer to call it. So don’t get excited it really is pointless forum fodder!
Manica is located in the Odzi-Mutare-Manica Greenstone Belt of Mozambique.
This gives a good aerial view of the fair bride deposit. ?https://www.google.com/maps/place/18%C2%B053'45.4%22S+32%C2%B052'32.9%22E/@-18.8964972,32.8748284,445m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d-18.895946!4d32.8758033
From there, to the NW about 1000km as the albatross flies is the recent acquisition Kakuyu mine which is 53km NW of Mumbwa town which in turn is ‘only’ a twelve hour drive from Colin’s former kalumbila or as it is now the sentinel mine, surprisingly to the NW again.
It’s almost uncanny…..almost
Thanks Andrew,
Thankfully you have good balance in your perspectives here.. it would be nice if more of the 'name plate' posters - and you're absolutely one of those- on this BB had similar imho
We paid $12.5m for manica and had offer of $17.5m a year later. That offer is not much less than current MC ! And thats with zero value for Bushranger and just £1m additional MC value for FB mine producing income and alluvial income.
What I find strange is that CB's mantra is,
if you want to find elephants then go where they have been found before.
This would be true of manica so why not look under our noses and spend money on more exploration at manica rather than small African high risk projects. Ed slowey our resident geo has said that there is Gold everywhere but different mineralisation (oxides, transition, sulphides)
For clarity, I don't have a problem with more targeted drilling at Bushranger or more exploration at Manica. Its the treasure hunts I don't like as I think our money could be spent in a more efficient way (risk v reward).
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/disposal-of-manica-gold-project-for-us175m-e2l0lbeow2nube4.html
on this BB never ceases to amaze me.
Xtr paid 1 to 2m range gbp ? for Bushranger as a speculative EXPLORATION play and there have been many thousands of posts on this BB from guys who have done 'their endless/exhaustive etc research' and are 'very confident'.. etc.. (they're 'exploration' holes .. so 'very confident' is a very subjective thing by definition? )
The equivalent up front spend to take ownership of Mozambique Gold play, with the jewel in the crown being Fairbride was plenty of multiples of that Bush licence acquisition - north of 15 gbp ish from vague memory but v happy to stand corrected -and that for a significant proven gold resource .. which an Operating Party and Empress Royalty have subsequently also invested heavily in too.. and is now in early stage production...... and, relatively speaking, there's barely a peep on the BB re it?
How about some more research from the 'Einstein's' posting here on Fairbride now, please.. and worrying less for a while re what may or may not be down the next EXPLORATION holes at Bushranger, Ascot etc?
PS: Off the back of effectively Fairbride alone, I'm happy to top up at current very lowly xtr s.p. levels.. and have done another top up today.. with more top ups to come as we go from me
Not just armour. Brass is still commonly used in bullet and artillery shell casings. Typically two thirds copper in brass. This is wasted copper as it really isn't that easy to collect and recycle during a war.
The scarcity of copper is often talked about in very near term scenarios. What of the future. All energy will one day be delivered for consumption as electricity (we are not going back to shovelling coal into the furnaces on steam engines to power our trains) and the future promise of limitless fusion power is always going to boil water to drive a turbine to generate electricity. My newly minted niece will likely still be alive in 2120. That is a long way ahead of the copper deficits we are looking at for 2025 or 2030.
plus, sadly, all the weapons of war which have been destroyed and the future drive to replace them and then expand on the inventory. See UKR recovered about 1000 tonnes of Cu from destroyed armour. Not exactly normal kerbside Recycling is it?
Lets see how the POC goes next year.
There's no realistic substitute for copper. Aluminum may have some applications but its conductivity is lower meaning energy gets lost as heat. There is one better conductor than copper but that's silver and with its price just around $24/Oz as we speak it has few applications. The only other possibility is some new alloy but the chances are that that would be even more expensive than Copper.
My only concern is that if the price of copper goes to the sort of price I'd like to see then every village hall is going to have its copper pipes torn out by thieves. I suppose one solution there is replace those with plastic or steel! There you go, just found one substitution....