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I have been practising my copy and paste skills and hitting the chocolate digestives again ;)
https://www.antaresmetals.com/projects
Lucky. Fri 10:44
>>Colin was saying something about the cost to process is now down to about $10 per tonne.?At 0.1 cut off you are breaking even.?Better to process the ore and break even than spend $5 to remove waste and dump it. <<
For MRE reporting, cut off grades tend to be rounded up to ensure that material with no economic significance is included in the resource. Which means with a COG of 0.1%Cu, material of that minimum grade will be profitable!
Give it a rest kwak, but congratulations anyway, you have just highlighted the typical business model of most fledgling, small cap, junior exploration miners which usually, often throw all their energy and resources behind maybe a couple or usually, just one project. Without any regular income stream which is typical of most juniors, share dilution through allocation of new shares is harsh reality in what is, the most risky sector to fund these growth opportunities to advance a project, so is all the more important, for the future of that business.
With Xtract, the production side of the business is maturing to the point that it will potentially now pay for further exploration, along with its partners to also increase ‘current’ mineral reserves and plant capacity. Without the ‘eventual’, or need for further placings the company has great potential to now grow, under its current strategy.
Observers must simply ignore Kwadoku’s share price examples as they do not take into account current market capitalisation, any share dilution including value of assets acquired in that time and the obvious economic downturn.
"Colin Bird has pulled another blinder "
Not for his benefit he hasnt.
His recent buys:
23-Aug-21 Buy Colin Bird 3.50 2,054,700
19-Apr-21 Buy Colin Bird 5.70 1,000,000
25-Feb-21 Buy Colin Bird 5.84 1,000,000
£185K buys with £115K paper loss at current SP
Also 27M share options with 20M at a higher strike price than current sp
CB is probably more under water than 99% of shareholders and will gain more than most by getting the sp higher and therefore has a great incentive to ensure this happens.
Colin Bird has pulled another blinder with XTR- ramp---> raise money (which funds his expat lifestyle)--->ramp some more--->market wakes up--->SP decreases--->silence from CB till he comes up with his next ramp.
My advice for anyone- wait till his next ramp and try and exit at the spike. For those who got in near the 8.5 peak- forget about ever getting that money back. It should be about damage control for you guys.
The problem is that in each cycle- you get more and more dilution which is why all his companies have a crazy amount of issued shares. One thing that does not get diluted is the money he squeezes out for himself each year.
It is a transfer of money from 'poor' tax-paying private investors to a wealthy individual who is based in a tax-free jurisdiction.
Colin Bird’s AIM record (as of Jan 23):
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 1.8
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.3
£XXXXXXX paid out in salaries to Colin Bird from these companies during the times
I think you guys need to be realistic. Colin Bird ramped XTR hard, and now the market has 're-appraised' the reality.
This is a classic Colin Bird play, ramp-->raise money-->pays for his lifestyle-->SP eventually comes down to earth---->rinse and repeat.
He has been doing this for years and wont stop until AIM take firm action on him
Colin Bird’s AIM record (as of Jan 23):
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 1.8
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.3
£XXXXXXX paid out in salaries to Colin Bird from these companies during the times
Stock Prices watered down by placings after placings and projects that go round in circles- meanwhile Colin Bird lives in the tax free luxury in UAE and indulges in expensive race horses.
Remeber that all of Colin's 'business' trips will be funded by the company (ie you and I). No doubt he is in 1st class flights, 5 star hotels etc. Maybe takes an opportunity to do some safari. Its not like it is some big sacrifice/cost for him to fly out somewhere so I wouldnt read into it as 'something is going on'. He has done the same in BZT and it ultimately meant nothing.
Last time he was in Zambia- Kalengwa- was followed by out-of-the-blue suspiciously spectacular handheld assay results which resulted in a big spike in SP- i called it at the time, but a few months after- the lab assays showed it was all a pile of ****. We have not heard a single piece of news on that particular site since then.
Just a reminder:
Colin Bird’s AIM record (as of Jan 23):
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.08
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 1.8
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1.3
£XXXXXXX paid out in salaries to Colin Bird from these companies during the times
Stock Prices watered down by placings after placings and projects that go round in circles- meanwhile Colin Bird lives in the tax free luxury in UAE and indulges in expensive race horses.
Both I guess eastern, what is alarming though is I thought the bit about wanting to strangle my puppy would invoke a response !
Disclaimer-
No puppies were every harmed while structuring this apparent poorly executed joke and any implication was for comedic effect.
Just to be clear! Now where’s my coat.
The copper price rose on Friday as investors hoped that China’s efforts to bolster its economy will improve demand for metals.
Copper for delivery in March rose 2.3% on the Comex market in New York, touching $3.91 per pound, or $8,602 per tonne.
The most-traded February copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.5% to 65,060 yuan ($9,460.25) a tonne.
Economists and analysts believe policymakers in China will roll out more support measures to stimulate demand this year, as part of Beijing’s overall goal to bolster the $17 trillion economy after a sharp covid-induced downturn.
The probable modest demand recovery in the property sector will propel the demand for industrial metals.
The sentiment was also buoyed by news that China will reopen on Sunday, welcoming international travelers and returning residents without the need to quarantine for the first time since 2020.
China’s southern manufacturing hub of Guangzhou plans 1,722 projects in 2023 worth more than 6.5 trillion yuan ($945 billion), state media CCTV reported on Thursday.
On the output front, Chile’s total copper production fell 6.9% in November to 449,000 tonnes, government body Cochilco said on Thursday.
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-rises-on-china-led-demand-hopes/
"So from our research into the breed, given patience and time..I’m certain he will eventually bring us the happiness we crave and satisfaction in choosing him. But also for not deciding to pick up a mongrel just because he was going cheap."
Just for the avoidance of doubt, are you referring to the doggy or CB here ? Thanks
Brilliant analogy Andrew very funny end, I compare being invested in Xtract with Colin Bird at the helm to getting my pedigree working ****er Spaniel pup.
I often think what the hell was I thinking at the time when I picked him up. He too, can send me through every emotion from joy, frustration, anger and disappointment. All within one day! But ultimately, we love our over exuberant pup and could not give up on him, even though sometimes I feel I could strangle him!
So from our research into the breed, given patience and time..I’m certain he will eventually bring us the happiness we crave and satisfaction in choosing him. But also for not deciding to pick up a mongrel just because he was going cheap.
deceptively deceptive = deliberately deceptive
Actually my typo may have been more accurate :)
LW
What you seem to be saying (or questioning) is whether we will get to the end of the pathway at all and will CB deliver value?
Anyone who doesnt think CB will deliver may be right and we may have been sold a pup.
My own view is that he will deliver success and we don't know if that success will be 10p 20p 30p or yes even 40p, as the POC will determine that. I'm still sticking by 10p to 15p as my realistic buy-out expectation, but if sentiment turns here then we may get an unrealistic expectation which could drive the sp to an unrealistic high - but a high that some LTH may take advantage of :)
I stand by my repeated criticism of CB of giving aspirations rather than realistic forward guidance and by being "deceptively deceptive", - but I still think he will deliver a SP in double figures, at least, hence why I was happy to add more recently. FB income and the rise in POC (be it this year or next) will ensure a substantial sp rise IMHO
My analogy here is that CB has told us the train journey is 2 hours, non-stop and in first class. In reality, it takes 2 days in third class, 10 changes, we have to catch a replacement bus service and cycle and walk some of the way ourselves :)
But we do eventually get to our destination ! (Albeit now having mental health issues and suffering from a form of PTSD :))
As the "pathway to success" changes over time (which clearly happens with XTR), then the degree of shareholder value realisation changes. The early stated aims of a project has shareholder value in there, but the concern here now is that by the time the pathway has evolved, the value for shareholders diminishes. Hopes for the SP of 40p gradually become nailed on 20p which becomes somewhere between 15-20p etc. My own hope became 10p which even that is now out of date. That pinned hope on Fairbride supporting 5p of that 10p. We will have to see what FB delivers in the real world but it doesn't look like the market sees it supporting a SP of 5p. As the pathway changes it brings scope for optimism in the short term which can be accompanied by spikes of varying levels. This seems the most likely way of getting some return. I gambled on trusting Colin to finally deliver something for shareholders via BR but it looks like my heart over ruled my head. It seems some can benefit from the way Colin choses to operate, but buying his shares as a PI isn't amongst those who do.
Andrew >>BR can still be viable (i think it will) but the pathway to that viability may not be the way CB has implied.
That is really on point, the irony is, although is still obviously arguable, if investors and the market were only subject to official RNS and company presentations to evaluate BR in particular , maybe with just the occasional podcast to ‘educate’ at key points throughout and ‘without’ the constant podcasts and over optimism. The market would ‘not’ have been under any illusion and potentially have seen a far less bumpy ride and now hold a stronger investor base and market cap in comparison at this stage.
But …. the big question in that respect then would be, wether the fundraise for phase 2 would have seen far more dilution for shareholders? So a rampy, over saturated PR drive to increase exposure and increase market cap running up to a raise can of course be forgiven. But, a precedent is then set from then on! We can’t have it both ways, but that is not to say, PR could not have been handled better.
Overall, you sum up perfectly
>>That doesnt mean we wont get there in the end and that he wont deliver success - but not in the pathway he is implying.
Picked this up, courtesy of Datacheck, over on GLR post. I do not have a twitter account so cannot verify.
"I hear that over on Twitter the Sunday Roast gents are going to Zambia/RSA end of this month to view some GLR, XTR and JLP assets, Colin with them. Colin won't be visiting Zambia for no reason or to just provide a tour guide service."
E&OE
"But, on wether BR is going to be viable,it is not a fair comment to suggest that CB’s is “giving his aspirations for and best case scenarios"
This is conflating two issues.
BR can still be viable (i think it will) but the pathway to that viability may not be the way CB has implied. He can be giving aspirations re the pathway to viability. Such as saying...
CB - “We get the conceptual study back and then we’ll go to pre feasibility.” and
" The model will be completed by April, May latest (stated earlier in 2022)
"Fairbride going into production has seen eventual success."
Fairbride is the perfect example of this. Yes, It has got into production and been a success, but its not happened in the way or time scale that CB stated. CB gave aspirational and best case scenarios which clearly didnt happen re FB and he is doing the same again re Bushranger.
That doesnt mean we wont get there in the end and that he wont deliver success - but not in the pathway he is implying.
Operational success maybe but perhaps not success in terms of realising value by way of SP increase and MktCap. XTR has probably spent near enough what it hopes to get back in Manica overall.
Your advice is good advice Andrew, CB’s reputation is only as good as his last success. And being in a very risky sector for explorers and investors alike, where any real project success is very often so few and far between. That success is even harder to come by within a particular company. So his reputation is easily questionable, as well as his interview style of over egging targets and timescales that has eventually done more harm than good.
But, on wether BR is going to be viable,it is not a fair comment to suggest that CB’s is “giving his aspirations for and best case scenarios, which are ‘unlikely’ to happen.” Now both resource statements are out with the relevant grades and tonnages that have significantly reduced how speculative the economic evaluation ‘could’ look.
Fairbride going into production has seen eventual success.
Over the last few years CB has made many bold statements and also ones that appear very encouraging. In nearly all cases the results have not matched the rhetoric.
I would caution anyone in trying to find hidden clues or pointers in anything CB says in interviews. He is giving his aspirations and best case scenarios which are unlikely to happen as he implies.
Please see his previous comments in interviews over the last 5 years for supporting evidence !
I also think something that CB had said in a recent podcast was obviously not overlooked, but the implications of what he had said and why he would have even said it, i think has missed point.
CB - “We get the conceptual study back and then we’ll go to pre feasibility.”
That is a bold statement to make when the updated conceptual mining study is not complete yet, as is currently having Ascot integrated into the economic assessment.
JORC resource updates generally coincide with a subsequent study and these are key project decision points to understand what to do next. The economic assessment in the study that is being produced at the moment will only determine if the project has ‘potential’ to be economically viable.
So for CB to already imply it will go to PFS must indicate they already have a good idea or know, of BR’s potential economic viability.
Did feel it was a more casual comment, and maybe not even an intentional one.
So in essence of why he said it it could be very encouraging.
ZeroMatrix: Yes, I know. I try to ignore them too. I try to get an idea from the sell and buy prices but even that doesn't always help.
Cygnus, I've come to realise over the years that trying to gauge the market by looking at trades is close to futile! But I still do it and have been bemused by the string of trades at 1.8p today. Your post only added to that bemusement, but nice to hear they are not all sells!
Just had a top up at 1.8 p which has registered as a sell. There are many 'sells' at this price so I suspect there's been a fair amount of buying today. The sells recorded here are not reflected by the static SP.
On another matter, the last RNS stated that there were around 0.75 MT of copper at a grade of 0.33%. Although not what we were expecting/hoping for, that's still a lot of copper in a top notch mining country and even then it's not in the middle of nowhere. It's just down the road from Sydney. Even if nothing else is added to the resource, this is still an attractive asset. Just need a little more patience....