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No, not me :)
or Steve 4077 :)
CB: ?
12-Jan-23 10:32:15 1.78 1,000,000 Buy* 1.70 1.80 17.80k
It’s probably best for now to let ‘Actions speak more than words’
Everyone has done the maths with if buts and maybes factored it in. I’m pretty sure there’s talk in the background and plans being thrashed out hence the radio silence from CB so to speak. Any potential investors/partners would want to keep potential certainty under the radar whilst negotiating any form of deal. Likewise XTR need to be restrained from making claims/finds. There’s enough information released last year to let investors/partners to do their own research.
As for SP more is always better!!!
Around $8986.5 mt. Could it reach $10k this year and give the boost to help get the company sold?
Ref Ascot seem to remember up to 200ppm being mentioned in one podcast saying higher than at cadia
Sorry Racecourse and Ascot
Query, but the Bushranger resource and CuEq has not taken into account Molybedenum as I read it. Was there any indication of how much there is in Racecourse and Bushranger? Noting that price of this has doubled since Nov and sits I believe at around 70k dollar a tonne. Moly typically associated with Cu porphyries. Is there value also still to be attributed to this? DYOR.
Sadly I think there are a fair few that would take 6p and run.
They'd be far better off, or any company for that matter, putting an an offer that would have to go to SH vote. Who would say no to 6p ATM?!?
Majors buy success, at present there are only the resource statements to quantify contained copper and rock mass. The mining/financial study will show potential viability and recommend what’s required to maximise that potential from additional targeted drilling to open pitable areas that will follow. It will be ‘after’ this necessary phase that the project will go to pre feasibility that AA or any major is very likely they will want to see first before making any considerations.
"Have you ever thought or factored in the sp is lower now than June last year. So AA don’t need talk to us they can actually buy XTR outright."
In theory yes, but if they started to buy up shares in a hostile takeover the sp would start to rocket. They may end up with the 90% to force the sale but what would the sp be just before they reached that threshold !
If we just focus on RC near surface copper that's 192M x 0.33% so 0.63mt
just up the road at Newcrest cadia another mine had a PFS (November) and they used $7700 POC in their model . Using very conservative 1.5% inground value that works out at 6p valuation full diluted or 7p at current 856M issue.
Thats with very pessimistic POC and in ground value and ignoring all of FB and other Bushranger areas
I would think it highly likely that a major will want, at the very least, the RC mineralisation at near surface . I think it more likely we will be doing a very limited p3 infill drill campaign as guided by the financial model to give more definition to certain areas. I would be very surprised if CB did a full P3 campaign in new areas.
CB could not have been clearer in interviews that he would not be doing a full P3 - so that may be a good reason to think he will :)
If so then mid 2024 for the sale imho....but then again, POC maybe even higher then so maybe that would be sensible?
(PS I still think Newcrest will by the buyer due to big presence in the area with cadia being similar system)
Billy, yes, this point has been bought up before but I remember CB saying that major miners (interesting phrase) do not buy tiddlers. Not sure why. Seems like a good business plan but there you are.
Have you ever thought or factored in the sp is lower now than June last year. So AA don’t need talk to us they can actually buy XTR outright. Obviously clauses in past contracts may restrict such a move but nonetheless it can happen.
Times ticking for all concerned.
My personal view of the future here is based on the last RNS. We have around 0.75 MT of Cu at a grade of 0.33% plus 0.5 MT of lesser grades. There's Ascot which is open in most direction plus prospective Cu at a number of anomalies including Footrot which is yet to convince me that it has legs. Plus of course the African income. I think the business plan must surely show that BR is economic as the .33% grade material alone is worth almost $7 billion at current Cu prices.
This will go one of two directions. Either AA will think that under the existing economic environment that they want to have access to this resource or they will pass. The first option means the quick payback that so many of us are looking for. The second option means the resource is open to offers but I can't imagine Colin will leave it there. More likely he will start a phase 3 financed via Africa to expand Ascot and dip his toes into the untested anomalies. This route will take longer but is eventually more profitable.
Just my opinion/view.
"So what's on the horizon that's going to turn around the sentiment here?"
Not aware of any imminent news but if poc keeps climbing that may bring more buys is
Higher poc more chance the financial model will be economic.
A depressing slide no doubt. So what's on the horizon that's going to turn around the sentiment here?
"I think most who were going to sell have sold and most who wanted to buy have done so. This means very little volume. "
I would go along with that, although there is probably a continuous supply of sellers over time as funds are needed elsewhere, patience runs out, etc. Buyers will be existing holders topping up at crazy low levels. But the overall picture is very low volume.
With this in mind I would not expect MMs to be paying this much attention. They make their money on the spread of buys/sells that they are contracted to facilitate. Look at the volumes, and the overall value of traded shares. This is NOT a money spinner for MMs currently. There are more lucrative stocks out there to play with. My guess is XTR is largely looked after by a Market Maker's (all of them) computer programme rather than wasting a real person's time at present.
i broadly agree with that Andrew.. but would also add that there has been a wall of selling here in the last 9 months.. - 7 p ish to 1.75 p ish speaks for itself - and in that window MM's may ongoingly have had a bit more stock on their books for a bit longer than they'd have liked and so have again and again forced the s/p down - or sometimes widened the spread to give them more margin to compensate etc - just to dump it..
(MM's can, in the round, lose money too as they're technically at risk.. for as short a time as they possibly can be granted.. but sometimes that's longer than they'd like ..and they'll dump some at a loss somertimes too.. obviously they make profits from the spread generally to counteract this too.. and recripocally to losing a bit in the crash here , may have made a bit in the rise that preceeded it.. etc.. but an MM(s) could have, altogether, recorded a loss for the year on their books from providing Market Making services in xtr in 2022 for eg )
IMHO nad happy to stand corrected
My view on the reasons for the continuing sp fall is a lot more simpler than some explanations.
I think most who were going to sell have sold and most who wanted to buy have done so. This means very little volume. MMs are not making any money with this level of volume so are trying to create volume by dropping the sp and either spooking weak hands to sell, or encouraging those still in / new investors to buy at perceived "bargain" prices.
There are loads of important things to remember about Aim, such as short term time horizon that many investors have, lack of scrutiny compared to main market , but the main thing to remember , imho, is that the MMs decide the sp. Its not calculated by some algorithm so that's why we often have the sp down when there are more buys than sells. Or a massive spike in sp on no news to get away a placing.
MMs are taking this down to generate volume. The sp does not reflect the future prospects but its a tool the MMs can use for their own benefit to make money by increasing volume.
Of course AIMHO
ps Conspiracy theories around MM's are significantly over egged generally imho..
(MM's have obligations to continue to make a market even when share prices are ongoingly falling off a cliff.. eg AIM generally in 2022.. and have to find the other side of the trade in the market to come off that risk , so it can be brutal sometimes for them too... and sure they'll smash the price down in certain situations..for eg just to find buyers somewhere asap, against a wall of selling)
Happy to stand corrected on any of my understandings/perspectives here:
I believe shorting for such very small market caps is very rare indeed Howzap; The stock would have to be sourced from a stock borrow lending desk to allow shorting.... and that would require an II/Hedge fund who is long xtr to allow their Custodian/Prime Broker to offer the stock for lending towards shorting.. and then too, an II or Hedge Fund to want to take up this offer and short.. and for such a 'tiddler' market cap nobody is generally interested in participating on either side of that equation
Also if there was any sort of remotely meaningful shorts on here, it would be recorded by market short tracking services and someone who subscribes for access to such would comment on that here
PS; what's marked as a buy or sell on the xtr share tade tracker icon above for eg is a bit of a joke.. its a system generated guess on whether price might be a buy or a sell around a moving bid /offer spread, and is notoriously inaccurate
Hi NtM
>>>To me, this s/p decimation feels more and more about CB's credibility than the assets here, alas
?Had considered this too but as has been commented on throughout the s/p decline, the sells against buys doesn’t reflect a big sell off. There is a post over on the dark side about the stock being shorted. What do you reckon?
>>>…..MM's use XTR as their personal money box . Spiking the Share price so they can short XTR for as long as they want without a care what production figures are and yes XTR are a gold producer as well as an exploration company with a Market Cap of just over £15m . Doesn't sound logical when you tot up the assets , revenue producing fair brides , 100% wholly owned prospect , in Mozambique does it . Alas , to a shorter it would though especially if that shorter wanted the Market Cap to go as low as possible believing the MM's will give clues as to when to close their short ..... :-)
I've seen it all before and thankfully made a fair bit keeping an eye on the assets rather than Market Cap which is determined by the MM's
Amazing that as POC ticks on up xtr ticks on down.. and that tick on down from an already extraodinarily low MC, imho
Sub 15 m gbp market cap for all xtrs assets is incredible to me... not least with decent and strongly growing African Assets revenue here thru 2023 and well beyond.
To me, this s/p decimation feels more and more about CB's credibility than the assets here, alas
(If not about that, another way I could explain it is that the market perceives Bushranger to be worth zero currently, and on top of that another say 2m ish gbp of this years revenue will be spent on drilling at it in 2023 and it will be worth zero after that too.... For the record I would strongly disagree with the market on any such view, and my very bad case scenario on Bushranger is a sell on for 10m gbp plus to a small /mid cap explorer)