Xtract Share Chat (XTR)

Andrew444,

True it could happen.

But there hard evidence in nearby and it same area for underground.

Hello News,

I am not sure we can say that Bushranger is "more of a copper project with associated gold " until gold grades have been verified by the lab.

Certainly our copper grades are much better than those of BODA, but gold grades could well be comprable as they were not comprehensively tested before and are thought to increase with depth - Now almost 1000m as opposed to the previously executed shallow drills. A decent Au grade could increase the Cu equivalent to a level well above that of BODA.
Fact is that there is everything to play for at Bushranger, CB has stated that it is set to be a major play and he is visibly excited by the current prospects - and that is certainly something special for a 77 year old with many decades of experience in the industry...
Everything is adding up to BR being a very special discovery IMO, and I, too, am excited about the next few weeks.

ATB.

"ALKANE RESOURCES
confirms LARGE-SCALE BODA potential with re-orientated drilling
returning broad H I G H GRADE gold copper zones."-Proactive Investors.com.au 18 Dec 2020.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/alkane-resources confirms-large-scale-boda-potential-with-reorientated-drilling-returning-broad-high-grade-gold-copper-zones-936904.html

Quote:
"KSDD028 returned ---------832 METRES grading ---0. 3 8 g/t GOLD & 0. 17% cu COPPER."

"Other diamond holes also producing broad, HIGH GRADE RESULTS including ---366.8m
----0. 2 7 g/ t GOLD & 0 . 1 1 % cu COPPER."

"BODA is a landmark porphyry gold copper system which the co believes has the potential to be a LARGE TIER-1 GOLD-COPPER project."

Dimension given earlier in another article: BODA 1,000m strike [gone to 1,100m now+], 450m width & 1,000m depth.

vs

XTR RACECOURSE-BUSHRANGER, NSW, OZ

Per Colin Bird, Executive Chairman, XTR, Bushranger @ Share-Talk interview, Fri, 22 Jan 2021
--XRF Hole 1, Racecourse : -----0.5% Cu - 0. 6% Cu COPPER.

JORC 71Mt @0.44% cu copper

Dimension: 1,000m strike x 1,000m depth x 250m width although larger as it goes deeper.
XTR GEO MODELLING: Brownish green 0.3% cu , Lighter Green 0.4% cu & Darker Green 0.5% cu from RNS and actual drilling results [historic] to illustrate the color codes.

STRAITS RESOURCES in 2006 Final Report A/cs: [ASX ANN/RNS, Prelim Final Rep 31.12.06]
"Exploration work by Straits DEFINED the RACECOURSE prospect, a LARGE MINERALISED UNIFORM SYSSTEM over OVER 1.5KM X 1KM with the potential to be a LARGE COPPER MINE. Drilling has DEFINED A LARGE CHOCOPYRITE COPPER SYSTEM with associated zinc and gold with VERY CONSISTENT GRADE from surface. Mineralisation identified has a gentle westward plunge that increase in THICKNESS WITH DEPTH." Straits $982m revenues per this a/c.

TOODAY, ASX bought Bushranger from Straits
They said they did IP etc and stated 1,000m STRIKE. Also said that no drill beyond 350m.

XTR - stated 1,000m strike x 250m width & 1,000m DEPTH.
So, there may be more as Straits said {?] but it may not have been tested via IP etc by Tooday?

COLIN BIRD INTERVIEW @12.1.21 @SHARE-TALK
"BUSHRANGER VS BODA: PRETTY MUCH THE SAME -BETTER."

COLIN BIRD INTERVIEW@20.1.21 @SHARE-TALK
After 940m of mineralisation at XTR Bushranger:
"1,100M -CONFIDENT BIGGER: CADIA RIDGEWAY, NORTH PARKES."
[Cadia Ridgeway is the next doorish neighbour to Bushranger & North Parkes is in the same Lachlan Fold Transfer Zone, NSW, Australia].

My Comment:
Whilst the detailed results at BODA re: KSD0028 as above may show higher inclusive intersection grades, NEVERTHELESS THE FINAL OVER 832m = 0.38 g/t gold & 0.17% cu copper.
BODA is MORE a GOLD project whilst BUSHRANGER - RACECOURSE IS MORE A COPPER project with associated gold.

THE ABOVE RESULTS ARE FROM THE BODA-ALKANE RNS and THE ABOVE IS
CONSIDERED HIGH-GRADE FOR LACHLAN FOLD, NSW, AUSTRALIA.

For perspective of ACTUAL RESULT

'I'm concerned that if we build up the grade potential too much, then a reasonable grade would be treated as a failure and perhaps result in a sell-off'

I believe some posters said that happened in GGP some time ago? Never been in their so I could be wrong.

I would be surprised if average Cu is much more than current 0.44% already discovered.

I may be wrong and hope I am..in the right way !

I wouldn't get over-optimistic on the grades, or it might seem disappointing when it is actually fine in reality.

Porphyry grades tends to be quite low. Anything above 0.3% would be fine and anything above 0.5% would be very good. Its about volume rather than grade. I'm concerned that if we build up the grade potential too much, then a reasonable grade would be treated as a failure and perhaps result in a sell-off.

I'm as excited as everyone else here but lets set our expectations based on other porphyries, especially those nearby.

Looking at the link in Dave85's post (very informative), it shows the significant effect the % cut-of Cu point is.

It says:

'The resource tonnage and contained copper increases rapidly as the cut-off grade is reduced. The economic cut-off grade derived from the Scoping Study is 0.20% copper and 0.15% copper at copper prices of US$7,500/t and US$10,000/t, respectively. '

Looking at the table in the link, there is a 50% increase in contained copper when the cut-off point is reduced from 0.3 to 0.2%

The current 310,000 tonnes of contained copper that we have already identified from Prospect Ore drilling (71Mt x 0.44%) is at 0.3% cut off. So if that is increased by 50% we already have 0.5Mt (using 0.2% cut-off).

In the scoping study 0.2% was used IF POC was at $7500. It seems reasonable to use this figure as POC is $8000 now.

I think it reasonable to assume that the extra depth we have drilled (and possible greater width identified tbc), should give us a very good chance of meeting 2Mt if AA use 0.2% cut-off .

And at current POC I dont see why they wont.

The only people uncertain are those thinking why o why didn’t I top up on Friday!!!

@Dave85
Not sure i follow all the numbers but really appreciate your thoughts here and does add well to the discussions.
So from your estimated figures i think they represent a lower range of values without any JV to increase asset in ground values - that a fair comment ?
ARB Shorn

Also if they didn’t believe the grades weren’t going to be good they certainly wouldn’t be drilling extra holes now would they!!! They know they have hit the jackpot here imho

I wonder if CB would consider a Joint Venture approach ?

ThePunter1... correct in that $8000/ton is not wjhat XTR will get. Valuations I believe will be in the range of between 1% - 5% of the contained tonnage. So 2m tons would be say 2% of 2m x $8000 if $8000 is the correct figure. 2% of $16,000,000,000 ? so $320m ?

Not sure where you get uncertainty from?? The only thing I see is a sure thing and nailed on blue!

Once set up, Block caving mining uses conveyors, along long tunnels to take the ore to surface, often such mines then continue to tunnel from this deposit to next from the original tunnel, the set up costs are big, 500m and up, these mines often process 60 to 120,000 tons of ore per day, and are set up to extract the minerals that are present, be it Copper, Au, Ag, Mb, Pb, or whatever, and the different spurs beneath ground can target different minerals dependent on the what minerals the ore mass contains.
But once set up the extraction costs are low compared to other underground mining techniques.

And so clusters can be mined very efficiently too.
DYOR and good luck all.

What's the uncertainty tomorrow, I'm pretty certain as to what's happening at XTR. If you are referring to the uncertainty of the grades well we can only wait and see, going by CB interviews and information released I'd imagine them to be fairly decent and not disappointing. Seems as though placing is being churned and we are ready to rock and roll for the news incoming. I see this going higher in anticipation of results, imo.

5.6

so given the major uncertainty tomorrow, what's everyone's predictions on open tomorrow?

Ella10

My understanding is AA don’t have an option to buy Footrot. Option just relates to Racecourse. May be wrong so others will correct if so.

I dont think you can use the $8000 spot price of copper for calculating valuation. We dont know the finer details of the buy back agreement but I doubt fair market valuation will be $8000 spot. Dont forget that AA have to get it out of the ground and will want to make a profit on it. If they cannot make a profit there is no point them buying it.

Thanks CE et al
Just checked RNS and interview for next hole depths
RNS - at least 4 further holes of about 700m length
Interview - orientation of next hole has changed and Colin mentions 6, 7, 800m holes.

The RNS mentions Racecourse rather than licence EL5574 when talking about the buyback. If we get to 2mt on Racecourse then will they split the licence, will they get footrot for free or will we have footrot quantified to some degree before we let them get their mitts near it?

The AA clause gives them the definite right to buy back at more than 2m t. We have no choice in that if we hit 2m t but of course at fair value that would presumably be a big number.
But they don’t have to buy it (eg other better projects on the horizon) . Likewise they could make an offer to buy back the property at any point even next week, just like any other company could.

I suppose it’s also a bit of an “egg on face” clause , AA wouldn’t want another major mining this to make billions if they sold it for a couple of million.

Big thanks for the estimates complete with quantification, ultimately necessary (however ballpark) to attempt value/potential value assessment before explicitly stated (eg rns'd) to a then much more 'level playing field' of market participants.

Many ways of coming up with educated judgements, imo.

My conservative estimates (what I'm basing my expectations on, above this - personal nice suprise, below this - personally slightly less than current thoughts).

From this link and various company rns & presentations....

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:IhTL-bv65wcJ:https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload%3Fid%3DtuE7JrfFgm%252FOGe3kZXCYEW%252F2TEVf4Ai%252Fzw311o9YkqsjTevSSYocXApvbUamxg5J3z8ubI5McZuzod3LAIw3yeEjZA%253D%253D+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk?=uk

We had 27.6mt go to 52.5mt with cog change from 0.3 to 0.2%Cu.

Previous work (the latest pre xtr) 'expanded resource' to 71.4mt @ 0.44%Cu via 0.3 cut off.

Now looks quite likely xtr could 2.5x the 'expanded resource' tonnage-wise (guesstimate based on 940m mineralised interval on first attempt & previous widening with depth).

So 178mt, applying same ratio of tonnage gain from same cog reduction (0.3 down to 0.2), ratio being 1.9.

Maybe looking at 178 x 1.9 = 338mt at, averages of, say 0.38% cu (previous grade reduction with depth) and 0.1g/t au (slight grade increase with depth).

Giving CuEq of
Cu 338m x 0.0038 = 1.285mt
Au (338m x 0.1)/31.1 = 1.086m oz x 1900 (pog) = 2b usd / 8000 (poc) = 258kt CuEq
1.285 + 258 = ~1.5mt contained CuEq.

Not far off, surprises to upside on grade/s or spot metal price/s shift or increased width or including Ag or further reduce cog to 0.15% = decent chance, imo, of AA buy option trigger - just from racecourse.

If not - 1.5m x 8k = in ground value of 12b sold at 1.5% (consevative) in ground value 180m usd/131m gbp.

Could realistically happen within 12 - 18 months.

131m / 730m = 17.8p

If so - 2m x 8k = in ground value of 16b sold at 2% (less conservative) in ground value 320m usd/233m gbp.

233m / 730m = 31.9p

++ all other Co assets including rest of bushranger (footrot/Southern prospects), and what CB could achieve with a chunck of that cash (50m say).

Understand & accept if/that some think this is pointless but I don't.

Think I'll hang on to mine for a while see what comes to pass.

AIMO ATB

...“ If a "Decision to Mine" is taken by ProspectOre prior to the identification of 2 million tons of contained Cu equivalent, Anglo also have an opportunity to exercise the buy-back. Anglo have a once-only opportunity to exercise the 80% buy-back whether the opportunity comes through the discovery of 2 million tons of contained Cu equivalent or a decision to mine.”

Ref: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/bushranger-copper-gold-project-australia-o7u71uhdwbdy9b9.html

If we assume a total strike length of 1000m then 200m diameter is equivalent to an average width of 30m, 300m diameter is an average width of 71m 400m diameter is an average width of125m and 500m diameter is an average width of 196m...

Hello Ella,

Using diameters was the easiest way to.calculate ot
It is the area that is important rather than the shape so a diameter of 300m is equivalent to a strike that is 100m wide by 700m long or 200m wide by 350m long etc.

@CaveatEmptor
Also , say the avg diameter is 300m @ 0.9% => 1.8m, and no AA buy back triggered - what does that mean ?
A great asset worth a lot to the wider market ?
ATB Shorn