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These are just about OK results. Not bad or good.
Take away points imho
FB is ramping-up and " Preliminary mining contractor gold production from Fair Bride deposit of 123.68kg for Q1 2023, equivalent to 3,976 ounces"
As production increases from April in manica due to better weather we should be at circa 70kg a month by Q2. imho
"Now that the Fair Bride operation has settled and the capital investment has been completed, we plan from the 2nd Quarter (i.e., the three months ending 30 June 2023) to report quarterly on Fair Bride's operation and financial results."
Still no indication of actual income from FB. I assume that will be reported next quarter?
BE and GF look like they should keep on for some time in a steady state way.
Sold a lot of previously unsold Gold. How much more do we have left??
As CB said FB will add much more than alluvial loss, so massive net gain coming with substantial increase in income probably by Q2 OR Q3 latest.
i wonder if he will do interview or just keep his head down for now?
Value of Explorator share of gold produced US$462,292
revenue to Explorator from gold sales and other income for the Period amounted to US$740,280
Think they sold some of their banked gold.
Also a change in reporting going back to quarterly, Now that the Fair Bride operation has settled and the capital investment has been completed, we plan from the 2nd Quarter (i.e., the three months ending 30 June 2023) to report quarterly on Fair Bride's operation and financial results."
Up over 200k on last quarter
· Combined attributable revenue to Explorator from gold sales and other income for the Period amounted to US$740,280
Two things which obviously affect us hugely. Gold and copper prices. I've just posted on telegram and thought I'd share here.
1) gold price is over 2k an ounce. Looking very strong. Our income is directly impacted by a strong gold price. Can we advertise this strength, Colin?
2) Copper price based on supply and demand. Demand currently iffy due to manufacturing downturn in US and uncertainty in China. However, supply issues make for some interesting reading.
I looked into the LME stock reports on their website. They are free to access in excel format.
Current inventory around the world in LME warehouse: 66k tonnes.
3 months ago: 88k tonnes.
6 months ago: 136k tonnes
9 months ago: 136k tonnes
1 year ago: 96k tonnes
18 months ago: 212k tonnes
2 years ago: 150k tonnes
The signs of a dwindling supply are clear. Just need an upturn in demand and hey presto. Boom.
I think that understanding is probably correct as Fair Bride is obviously a completely separate area compared to Guy Fawkes and Boa Esperanza, and they were not in the semi-annually comment and can't be seen to be anything to do with Fair Bride??
Andrew4444
You're probably correct, it's always been a complicated set up over there and just when you remember the new parameters they change !
Jezzo
RNS said
"We anticipate that the financial results from Fair Bride, where we have a 23 per cent. net profit share will initially be reported semi-annually."
My understanding was that that the semi-annually reporting period was referring specifically to production at FB only and not the alluvial and small HR?? Those other two production streams are more manica in general. If it was for ALL production then I would have thought the word "Manica" would have been used and not Fair bride??
Well, that's my understanding. I guess we'll know which interpretation is correct soon enough.
I thought he'd moved results to bi-annual so he only has get off his **** twice a year not 4 times a year.
"When can we expect next set of production updates please?"
Imminently :)
Last quarter release was 9 Jan so if its as late as that then it should be tomorrow (just before Easter). If not then it will be after Easter which means they will be latest ever release - circa 3.5 months after period ended.
If they were good they would be released by now so I'm expecting them to be average at best ie circa 50 to 60 kg for the period. Anything less than 50KG will be disappointing imho.
Alluvial production is running down but small Hard rock seems to be increasing so most of the production may well be down to small HR??
When can we expect next set of production updates please?
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/15702565/is-a-copper-rally-on-the-horizon
So we hope, howezap.
Awaiting Manica production numbers.
I do have a gripe with CB to show I’m not being deliberately biased, and that being with this remark when he was defending against BB sceptics like myself at the time, that majors would want to see some measured resource.
CB- “Majors come in when there is reasonable geological justification to assume that you’ve got a big mass of rock that contains a lot of metal.”
That would be true for deposits where the mineralisation type is more predictable to be of consistent grade and thickness. And was the reason why kalumbila only sold for $165m for a loosely inferred 1.5b ton resource.
But it is a false claim for a low grade porphyry deposit, and certainly for one that is bound by targets set within the confines of a buy back agreement where the recipient wants to see the hard numbers that can only be supported by a probable/proven mineral reserve, as it recently transpired.
But at the end of the day, ton for ton BR will command greater value than kalumbila did, due to having a PFS so it will be worth the extra wait.
what Colin actually said in an interview was that if we were still here (with Bushranger) by then (end of 2022) that he (quite frankly) wouldn't have done his job right.
I'm not kicking the missed timescales.... although they present a massive target for kicking.... but I dont see any point in trying to suggest he was telling us anything other than we were looking for a quick sale in 2022.
Going back to the April target set at the beginning of ‘22. Colin never actually said to sell it then, what he actually said was to be in the position to approach Anglo with 2mt and a conceptual pit that works for the decision to mine. Although that was obviously wishful thinking on both fronts anyway as we now know they want to see a PFS. It’s certainly debatable wether Colin actually believed 2mt was realistic and a concept study was going to be adequate.
All the ramping was certainly in the interests of the existing shareholders where potential further dilution was concerned at the time in all honesty. But above all, as it was then, and still is, a genuine importance to get the buy back mechanism triggered to be free from the agreement one way or another. That is the biggest hurdle.
I’m happy with how it has been played overall, understanding what I know now, as long as there is a viable project at the end of it which can get to that point with ideally no more dilution, or if so, by a minimal amount then CB will have done his job.
Hopefully at a low point here , both in terms of interest and share price. Patience of Job required.
Agree.
No posts for 3 days on telegrams and the same on here.
Everyone has taken their positions. We've been here for 3 years +. Manica has been working up to full capacity for almost as long as I can remember. Havieron will be in at full operational speed before Manica at this rate.
Colin keeps on banging on about the incoming upturn in copper price on twitter. Doesn't matter if you a) Don't make progress in your projects b) Don't give honest and accurate projections and estimations for your projects ("gift wrapped for AA by April '22!") c) Reduce the annual reporting of income from 4 times a year to bi-annually
Lots to be frustrated about here despite the incredibly favourable headwinds that could be coming our way. Could go very well indeed if Colin plays his cards right. My worry is his eyes are off the ball or his definition of "death by a thousand lashes" is different from mine. By my reckoning we're on about 750 already...
Come on CB give us something to liven up the SP! Its Zzzzz boring
Anyone wondered why there is a NSR (Net Smelter Return) royalty to AA if the project is eventually sold onto a third party, considering the ore at BR is oxide. Higher grade sulphides are sold on and sent for smelter to be refined, whereas low grade oxides are processed by leaching and refined by electrolysis potentially on site, if there is a plant developed to do so.
The NSR is the net revenue from the sale less refining and transportation costs. The term is named so, due to the fact most of the time, mining output sold, requires further processing by smelters.
Low grade ores though, are not economic enough to be smeltered. But can be economic by leaching as uses far less energy, with capital costs being much less too.
Just passing the time
When Colin has been vague it usually means the correct interpretation is the one that least suits the shareholders.
CB has left it nice and vague for both views to be correct. I think on balance it means June / July but I accept that may be wrong.
For clarity I dont think this will be going over 2.5p until FB results have been released - be that April or in circa 3 months time.
I raised that question here then Andrew .. and noted then it could be interpreted six months from Oct 22 ( although you could equally/more so even be right, no doubt.. and I was livid then if he meant end June/early July... and ditto now.. I've defended him plenty before but that would be my biggest annoyance with him yet.. and I've had plenty of annoyance with him before )
NtM
If you are right about the April update then you may be right about getting to 2.5p earlier. The reason why I said 3 months before 2.5 p, is because we were told in the 9 Jan RNS that....
"We anticipate that the financial results from Fair Bride, where we have a 23 per cent. net profit share will initially be reported semi-annually."
To me that implies another 3 months wait before next update??
i'm going to get ba+lsy here/now Andrew and offer that I feel there's a good chance we'll get a Fairbride progress update sometime in April and it will show solid to good progression month on month over recent months and while still a ways to go to get to where it can get to on a monthly run rate basis, people will be reasurred and a somewhat meaningful re rate will occur.. and that get us towards that 2.5p sometime in April ..
(I may be completely wrong of course.. but you've gotta have a view.. and that's my latest one )
imho & dyor
I'd like to think we might get back there earlier than that, Andrew. But, you seem pretty accurate with your timelines, or rather Colin seems woefully inaccurate so you might be right.
Jokes aside, one thing in our favour is that this has the ability to move up sharpish on reasonable volume. We moved up from 2p to 8p on 200 (?) trades a day in less than a week in 2021. Slightly different scenario if we rise this time, in that the majority of shareholders are underwater, and I would wager mostly in the 3.5/4-6p zone. I.e. shares are in sticky hands, looking to recoup losses, rather than make a quick buck. Therefore, we could move up quickly as we go through the ranges from 1.5-2, then 2-3p, and onwards from there.
All of this is dependent on Colin giving us the news (possibly the hardest part of all this conjecture). All IMO. GLA and hope the weekend is pleasant.
p.s. Apologies NtM - will let you go ahead when people actually do need to be in this over the weekend ;)