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Andrew444,. I don't know why you bother. She has never understood that the 23% is profit and not 23% of the value of the gold sold.
At least she is no longer repeating her valuation of Fairbride at £12 per share that was her considered view some time ago.
Blimeyori my avg is 4.5p any Hope here the Next 2 years?
Dani
I've already given you a comprehensive breakdown of my calcs on 16 Jan 2023 at 20:10. That was the second time I have done that and dont want to clog the BB up with another long post.
The "three times "comment by CB was some time ago and that was x3 income from FB per month against alluvial income. If so, that again confirms your income prediction is far too high and more consistent with my FB prediction.
There is nothing more I or anyone else can say to show that your figures are far too optimistic, so I will leave it there. May be you will start to understand more when FB income settles down by Q3 and is broadly what I have said.
So sorry, we are not on the same page.. or even on the same book...or even in the same library. If we were in the same Library I would be by the "factual reading "area and you would be reading at the fiction area :)
Share of the year by end of 2023!
One can but hope!
1.4p was the bottom? Will xtr return to 4/5p the Next 24 months?
Well played, NtM, well played! With a nice little 12% rise before lunch and a 4 day weekend ahead of us, the timing is almost perfect. Bring on 2p!
For what its worth....MMs will take 1.25M at 1.53p atm
They want shares.
….and we have one of the top 10 potential copper mines on top of this , with money coming in to fund more exploration
Just past the first minute CB states the figures are BEGINNING to look very impressive. That indicates or confirms to me that a lot more is expected. Nice podcast
PS : As today is the beginning of a new tax year, and in case ben 'owell has his finger on another trigger :
I wouldn't like to be out of this in the 23/24 tax year !!
In case Ben 'owell has his finger on the trigger, I'm going early :
I wouldn't like to be out of this over the w/e !
As it's a four day weekend instead of two I'll allow myself say again:
I wouldn't like to be out of this over the w/e !!
That - impressive - podcast re iterated in my mind that CB has excellent Strategic Orientation .. and while his timing may be off 'a bit', as a rule .. off the back of this strategic orientation, the stable of existing resource assets is strong here and the future looks - very - bright for Xtract resources
IMHO & DYOR
I am intrigued by Colin's comments about this little copper mine in the two interviews.
He seems to downplay it at times, claiming it's a tiny operation offering 18 months worth of operations but then at other times he says it's very promising and states they have 2.4km of strike.
Questions I would like answered:
1. He confirms to Zak that they completed drilling to the north. Will we see assays for that drilling or is that XRF style figures?
2. He confirms to the Roast chaps that it is already producing. When will this be reported?
3. The roasties try and pin him down on a forward projection for Kakuye, 5k tonnes /year for 10 years. His answer is "We're not building the future on Kakuye. It's one relatively small mine of many. We're looking at building a central plant ourselves."
Let's unpick those sentences. Colin avoided any kind of estimate about how big it is. "One of many"? Currently you have one mine in Zambia on the website - please stick to the question of how big it might be. It's not helpful to start talking of other acquisitions. As always, Colin's answers throw up more questions than answers. How long will this plant take to build? How much will it cost?
This news today was positive. Gold production is on the up. Kakuye sounds promising but we have literally no idea what's there apart from Colin saying there's 2.4km of strike. I do wish going forward we could interview him with closed questions and he can only answer with a yes or no or a figure.
My 17 Jan post..............
Further to the discussion re FB income.
Using a more consensus view, and some may say more realistic, if you look at two upper and low case scenarios we get (imho) a reasonable idea of what to expect.
Assuming margin is 40% (most seem to agree) and we get 23% of that:
Pessimistic view:
POG $1700
65KG month
That works out at $328K a month = £270K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Optimistic view:
POG $2000
100KG month
That works out at $592K a month = £485K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs
Average of the two upper and lower bands is £375K a month
I think circa £350K a month (+ or - £50K) is a very realistic assumption on level of income from FB when we are at full production - probably some time in Q2
https://audioboom.com/posts/8276536-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr
Dani
Interview just out. He confirms FB income at 2min 30 sec
He must have missed your posts as he is talking about $350K to $400K a month profit.
What have I been saying for the last 18 months? £300K to £400K (£) FCF
Check my posts if you like. I've been consistent with this profit and it appears CB agrees with :)
''I would rather take guidance from Colin than unsubstantiated comments on this BB.''
I believe you're 5 days late with that line, Ma B !
"So you see Andrew4444
This is where I got my info from..... straight from the horses mouth - Colin Bird !!!"
If CB said that, then it must be true. Why would anyone doubt what he says :)
Btw I think most on here are fed up with Colin's forward projections and Dani quoting Colin from yesteryear adds nothing to the conversation nor does it add credence to her outlandish claims.
The figures in the RNS today of 124% increase in Q4 and 56% increase in Q1 for Hard rock at Fair bride are confirmed figures from an RNS. Everything else is hot air. The increase is welcome, if not quite as much as some would like or predict.
Fair play to CB for today giving the Fairbride colour I /we badly wanted to understand around now.
Andrew's post is a very good / balanced one imho.
And it's all about looking forward with enthusiasm from here, I clearly now believe
I agree there's a good to very good chance that 70kg per month from FB is doable by May or June (and there's GF and BE adding a bit more again too, hopefully)
Including FB getting to onging 70kgs ish pm - and hopefully more again into the future too - putting to bed any thoughts of a need for a 2023 placing for further Bushranger drilling, it should also make crystal clear to all that Africa Gold revenue alone is indeed worth between 2p and 5 p a share here .... which will make any s/p anywhere in the 1.5p to 2p range feel like a good buying opportunity for plenty sitting on sideline here, I'd hope
(xtr might/would be buyers would have to believe that putting say 2m USD of upcoming Africa Gold revenue into Bush/Ascot drilling is worthwhile too granted .. but plenty will, I believe)
So I'm now hoping for a rally to 2p-2.5p range here this quarter.
IMHO & DYOR
On a positive note, hard rock from fair bride increased
124% from 35.31kg to 79.15kg in Q4 of 2022
56% from 79.15kg to 123.68kg in Q1 of 2023. (in the wet season!)
I think the increase is a positive, especially as it's still ramping up and was delayed for a while.
Another 50% increase in Q2 would be lovely.
MaBaker... could you point me to any rns or media presentation that gives us 30kg gold monthly ?
MaBaker... do you still believe FB will give us £12m annually ?
Interview is on its way.... so no heads down.... but surely there is a point missed here....
The production (might) be much higher now than these Quarter results indicate. Would expect/hope that ramping up meant that the average for this Qtr can only be used as indicative.
I'm fine with this rns. Time for the recovery now.
If I was CB I would keep my head down.
As for RNS it was good I wouldn't say bad but could do better! Oh yes forgot how much unsold gold do we left. Shows we are not stupid and despereate to sell it all at once and waited for higher price.
GL