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Btw Dani and for clarity..
I agree with your main point that FB production will keep increasing and that the SP will appreciate .
I've made those points many times before.........but you may have also missed those posts of mine as well :)
Dani
" I am very surprised you have not commented on XTR stellar result at Manica YE 22."
That's wrong. I did that a few times right after the results were released.
"You say investors are waiting for Fairbride income to materialise - well it already has materialised but it's not yet reported "
That doesnt make any sense. Unless £ and $ are reported we have no idea what it is so it can't affect SP.
Explicitly it stated in the RNS "Sales and Income ex Fairbride"
No one has any idea what the £ and $ will be unless its reported. And it hasnt been yet.
So we have no idea what the income is or indeed actual profit is. You repeatedly making those figures up won't help either !
" bit more studying RNS's may make all the difference !"
You do irony so well Dani :)
Come ti pare, Dani :)
How mining companies are using MR bulk ore sorting plants:
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=NextOre%E2%80%99s+MR+technology&rls=com.microsoft:en-GB:%7Breferrer:source%3F%7D&rlz=1I7ADFA_en&sxsrf=APwXEdc-5sn-Dqa-mGUTu5uMOsM9bECx-w:1683660693133&source=lnms&tbm=vid&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjG_6Ts_Oj-AhVJiVwKHRgnDoMQ_AUoA3oECAEQBQ&biw=1920&bih=961&dpr=1#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:79785c04,vid:_Gk4ejQGG3A
Whilst adding emojis to LSE they appear to have disabled direct web links.
A company called NextOre produce an on-conveyor MR analyser bulk ore sorter which is the tech trialled at Cadia and a big mine in Chile. This could possibly be what xtract are testing. Interestingly, it has been successfully trialed by scanning chalcopyrite copper ore grade which is far more weakly magnetic than BR’s waste material!
>>>…..allows for the grade of high throughput ore to be measured at industry-leading accuracies and at speed. Due to the high speed of the technology, the integrative system is able to perform the analysis, computation and physical diversion of waste ores down to one second intervals allowing for fast diversion.
NextOre’s MR technology is the culmination of decades of research and development by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), with the division spun out from the organisation in 2017. Since then, NextOre has gone on to demonstrate the technology’s viability across the globe.
"once again approaching AGM time with no progress at BR in the last 9 months. "
I suspect this is because CB has had to "park" this project until we start getting the FB money in. Not a lot he can do that doesnt require some sort of payment to someone.
I don't think we will be accumulating the necessary funds from FB to do more drilling until Q4 as it ramps up (although we will be getting some into Xtract now no doubt) .
Phase 3 will have to happen in some fashion (albeit more limited than PH1 and 2). I can't see that starting until Q4 or even Q1 next neat year. We then have the drilling, assays and re assessment of results and re assessment of economic model.
My estimate of Bushranger sale next year may be a tad optimistic ! It may well be 2 years away but the good news is that copper will be much higher in 18 months to 2 years, so no doubt worth the wait imho.
Sounds about right from what I can remember of last August. Issue is we are once again approaching AGM time with no progress at BR in the last 9 months. The 789 lashes are starting to hurt, Colin...
Dani, think is up to 6 weeks for approvals but can’t be sure. As for costs it’s just guesswork at the moment. But as was recently mentioned by Littlewing regarding only a resource with economics that work for Xtract needs to be provided to trigger the AA option. This post from a ‘previously’ respected member that attended last years AGM and reported back, supports that theory, so further drilling may not be overly extensive.
>>>I asked quite a few questions on the strategy. In principle it seems to be:
1) Announce RC decision to mine based on 500mt (ish) using a model with a copper price in the region of $8500. Total contained not specified but we can probably assume around 1.5mt. The intention seems to be to get the AA decision out of the way early. Colin expects copper price to reach 15,000, so (reading between the lines) it seems to me they want to announce this model while we are below 2mt and the copper price is low in order to get a 'no' from Anglo. I asked if getting Anglo out of the way could backfire as it removes the shield of that agreement and allows a lowball bid for the company. Colin stated that junior miners don't suffer hostile takeover attempts. The only example he could think of was SOLG and that was due to conflict within the company.
2) Phase 3 will follow the above (which is interesting as they assume there will be a phase 3) and will cover more definition on RC higher grade area to improve the IRR, further drilling at Ascot and NW of RC, which they now seem to think is actually open again. This will happen sequentially, not all at once.
3) Start talking to various majors who are more likely interested because they already have a presence in the area (Newcrest?). Again reading between the lines, it sounds like informal contacts may have already happened. Colin made it clear that when a deal happens, it can happen quickly.
Based on the above, the 2mt seems to be a moot point because it will become irrelevant once AA reject (or accept) the decision to mine trigger. This seems to be a coherent strategy with defined steps. It could be a relatively quick deal if Anglo trigger the buyback on the decision to mine, or maybe 6-12 months for a different buyer. Colin made it clear there would be no JV. Whether people will be happy with that strategy will depend on their time horizon and prior expectations, but given the current market cap I will probably add as funds become available.
Apparently emoji are available? 😁
This helps massively when trying to decipher what colins trying to say to the shareholders.......🐂💩
Hi Dani yes is a possibility that I was thinking, as phase 3 optimisation drilling is not dependant on the outcome of pre-concentration study. Recommendation of drill targets have already been identified by Optimal in their interim report to xtract. So in ‘theory’ applications could be sent. You never know!
Is highly unlikely anything would be done now though, until after the full updated mining study is released as will be a key decision point to finalise those next steps.
Question is ‘who’ will fund them next steps to a feasibility study?
From treasury, shareholders or third party funding?
So that leads onto to the question of ‘urgency’ in which a schedule of works can be programmed.
Digging deeper it does appear to look more favourable toward the success of BOS sensor ability to be more effective, detecting the waste material for rejection in BR’s pyrite/pyrrhotite/chalcopyrite mineralisation. Although, Identifying the ‘mineralised’ rock for sorting can not be ruled out as is dependant, on if dissemination is not too finely interspersed. As fine grained minerals can be difficult for BOS to detect. BOS heavily relies on the variability in grade of the ore and waste together. It requires large batches of waste and low grade material across the width of the conveyor and of over a metre or so to be effective for rejection.
So if for example it’s accepted that the magnetic properties of the waste rock is what will make the tech amenable from sensors using magnetic resonance. (Chalcopyrite is far less magnetic than pyrite and pyrrhotite) The effectiveness of BOS is dependant on how the material for rejection is present in such a way that it can be separated effectively in the large bulk sorting batches, and how well the sensor can detect it with sufficient accuracy and precision (called repeatability).
Which leads to another advantage the particular ore type at BR may lend itself to. ‘Another’ pre-concentration technique that could also be incorporated is at the mining face itself, where grade control drilling can direct ‘selective blasting’. A pre-concentration technique that involves using less explosive energy in those higher waste sections to produce a courser fragmentation more suitable to be crushed down to a consistent sortable size, for that waste material to then be more effectively identified for rejection whereas normally a much higher blasting energy is used across all ore for a finer fragmentation as it all goes to the crusher and on for processing, unlike a BOS model that only sends the pre-concentrated ore for processing.
There is fair to good potential it seems with BR’s mineralogy. BOS though is not seen as a golden ticket by a long chalk, but it can be, under the right conditions!
Was checking in on the NSW Titles portal (TMS) for signs of any new drill hole permit applications. Can’t see any open cases but came across a site audit report that was done in may last year at BR when hole54 was being drilled.
Gives a bit of insight into how environmentally sensitive they are with their mining regulations in NSW
https://www.resourcesregulator.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-03/audit-report-prospectore.pdf
LW
thats a fair point but re 40KG but we are now out of the rainy season and still increasing production.
I cant see it being 80kg at max production, but I thing it will be 60 kg by q4. If POG stays above $2K which it looks like doing - thats a lot of FCF to Xtract.
Ntm
If this share wasnt called Xtract and with the info we have re manica , albeit from a third party, I would agree that the sp should be higher, and move quicker
But legacy issues are no doubt holding the sp appreciation back. I doubt we will get another RNS quarterly update until late July / early August re manica. So I doubt the market will respond until official RNS news re income. That news will have to confirm £ and $ and for all the good info Empress are telling us re production, they can't convert that in actual bottom line profit for xtract. So I'm not sure that Empress updates are going to be the driver for sp appreciation. But I agree the indications are good.
Obviously that is all regards manica production, as that was the question, so if we get any good news on Bushranger re pre-concentration then SP may appreciate quickly after that news - which could be in a weeks time or months away !
"Just wondering when the markets will realise the real position at Xtract through the Manica income"
In interviews CB claimed the monthly share to XTR would be 80-100kg. Empress figures show around 40kg (from Q1 2023 production). The markets have probably already realised the "real" position.
The reads across from Empress commentary re Manica 'Ard should not be underestimated, imho Andrew.. So i'm somewhat more bullish than you on the potential speed of s/p appreciation opportunities here off the back of short term Manica 'ard informal commentary from one or both of two angles..
And I'll stick with my previous guess that if Bushranger pre concentration study feedback is 'favourable' then CB will give some form of announcement on this on its own in a - later in - May RNS... (and my guess is the pre concentration study feedback will be 'favourable' )
Altogether, I can see a path as to how this s/p can get to 2.5 p + within q2, 2023 .. but it requires good Manica 'ard progress noted by Empress and or CB in May or June, AND a 'favourable' pre concentration Bush study outcome announcement in May (or June)
"Just wondering when the markets will realise the real position at Xtract through the Manica income."
When we get actual £ or $ profit stated in an RNS. Not from CB in an interview.
So starting in about 3 months time imho
Spot on guys, BOS would be the game changer, and see the most potential for BR’s more complex mineralised, low grade high tonnages.
Pre concentration is not new with its economic and environmental benefits, but modern BOS is still in early stages so there simply isn’t the raw data available to draw conclusions from. To determine if bulk ore sorting is the most suitable pre-concentration technique, the 4 drill core samples will have undergone lab trials on a chosen sensor. There are many types to choose from to be suitable, of which must be able to detect either the valuable metal, a proxy for a particular metal or a gangue mineral for rejection.
As BR mineralisation is in association pyrite/pyrrhotite, considered gangue or waste material. It’s metallic/magnetic properties could also be suitable for rejection with potentially more than one sensor type being used in an array on the sorter.
Gixxer, Yes, I believe you are correct. There are multiple ore separation techniques that have to be tried multiplied by the different ore samples that were used to find the best average overall solution for the particular ore characteristics at BR. Definitely not a modelling issue - maybe a bit of stats.
Expecting a result in the next week, but I am the gullible type (assuming the results are published).
I believe it's more than just number crunching Jezz. I think there is actual physical testing of the material from the drilling to show what % of the copper can be recovered.
Possible they are also employing more than one separation methodology.
How long can a study such as this one take ?
We already have the drill results, isn't it a matter of inputting the info into a computer programme ?
Surely it's an automated system, not one you input every piece of data manually ?
Asking for a friend........
>> scaremonger and say if it’s not released it must be bad
Apart from the known fact it's the standard MO for Bird HZ