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What could be current cash flow situation, making some assumptions of course? Forgive me if I don’t go anywhere near that one! There is unsold gold too that could add.
Must be getting a return from Kakuyu by now to contribute too whatever it amounts to. Early indications are that as of Jan RNS they were ready to ‘source’ a drill rig. To start sourcing would be premature without any confidence that it would soon be receiving cash flow as March presentation states, “project economics must generate free cash flow within 3 months of start up and sufficient income to fund step out exploration.”
Also at that time, they were pre stripping and a 185t bulk sample had been sent to Kabwe refinery. As of the March company presentation it clearly states that an agreement has been ‘reached’ with the refinery to treat and sell the ore.
I'd rather sit on this for a year (v reluctantly) and build up some good cash reserves rather than even consider a raise at anything like this level. I personally don't believe Colin would consider a raise in xtr with manica coming on. That long expected copper price rise could be kicking in by 2024 as well.
Empress recently quoted an annual $1.6m from manica in their presentation or $47.5 million gross from the operation giving us something in the order of $7.6m. I think that works out at a run rate of 60+ kg gold per month in 23 on average.
if we are sat with $7m in the bank this time next year with maybe 9.5k or 10k copper that's not such a bad place to be. If its considered worth it to invest money in BR do it then I guess.
If manica did indeed start knocking out close to 100kg per month by end of 23 our cash will be significantly higher of course.
I would be very p off if there was a raise under 6p and for more than 5% dilution. LTH have been here long enough and should not be funding, via dilution, a big pay off for the next cohort buying in.
We've paid our dues.
That said, I am fairly sure next drilling will be done via FB income and that is why CB is not saying much atm. We are in hold and wait situation until FB income starts to come in significant amount - probably by Q4 2023.
I purposefully said 'pretty clear' on my view on the strategy here more than very clear, howezap.. as the thought of a raise whenever in the future is always a possibility, granted.. BUT, I'd be angry/gutted with CB if he undertook a market raise for further Bushranger development at anything under 3.5p Howezap.. and I think he just wouldn't do a raise at anything under 2.5p... in 2023 at least .... and with AIM market on its knees generally and the s/p currently way off 3p, the next phase of Bushranger drilling will all be from Treasury is my best guess.. half from treasury and half from raise had crossed my mind.. but a smaller next phase drill there from Treasury only is the best route imho..
(There may be another Bushranger drill phase after that granted.. or there may not .. the funding of that i'll not concern myself with as too many other variables on the more immediate h2 23 in h1 24 horizon)
The signs from this really lean period of BR news recently could point to the potential there is still financing overhang to move BR toward the AA option. While there is still a lack of any real volumes of shares being shifted across the markets, the need for funding is going to be very difficult to pull off without too much dilution if they can’t draw in new money with any positive news releases now to lift the share price with more importantly, seeing it sustained for any period.
Confidence in the market has got to return first imo.
Not being economic as a reason for not reporting, I would say is not a fair assumption. Companies can end up producing a number of pre feasibility studies on the way to achieving a ‘desirable’ economic model. With Xtract confirming there will already be an optimisation phase anyway, and with infilling and both resources open ended on strike there is ample opportunity to achieve the necessary positive outcome.
The hopefull and more obvious scenario is of course further work can all be done from treasury and so are building cash reserves to have funds in place up front to cover all the contractual obligations when ready. As per phase 2. Potentially split with resource optimisation firstly, followed by resource upgrade and study later.
Agree NtM although I’m predicting ‘25 the later it presumes this year.
Frustrating as it may be, until CB has a clear view on when there might be very approx. 2m USD surplus funds sitting on xtr's books, he sees no point in even starting the process of planning the next phase of Bushranger drilling, is my view
(The strategy of xtr doing a next phase Bushranger drill when affordable from Africa Project income remains a pretty clear one in my mind, the timing of that next drill phase a little - but not a lot - less clear)
So while building out the cash kitty is in early train, it will be 'at best' mid q3 2023 before CB has has a decent view on revenue to xtr run rate from fairbride thru q4 2023 on into 2024 .... and only then of soon after - eg later q3 or early q4 even - would he see it appropriate to even start planning the next phase of Bushranger drilling...
(How he manages news flow around Bushranger .. eg economic assessment study already done but not released ... pre concentration preliminary investigation .. revising economic assessment off back of this ...etc.. is 'unfortunate' imho: CB clearly manages xtr 'newsflow' FAR more in an as he sees fit fashion than in a when available/full disclosure fashion ..
So, 'best' case in my mind next phase Bushranger drilling starts late 2023.... but it might easily be in 2024 either..
Generally, sure I'm unhappy with where we're at in various senses here; the pace of progress generally has been and remains slow, of course... but the s/p is my biggest annoyance here now, and even including CB's Bulls**t, I still think it should be 2p minimum now...
But I do have a fairly clear view on the strategy here.. and, off the back of that view, a sale of Bushranger later in 24 would be very pleasing to me .. .. I don't see it earlier than that, and I can see it later that that (and the eventual sale price could be anything between 15m USD and 100m USD in my mind)
Towards finishing on a high note, I'm genuinely excited by fairbride revenue to xtr in second half 23 and all 24 and all 25 and all 26 .. etc.. and for that alone I do not think it's fair and reasonable that this s/p is under 2p around now
Last year the AGM was allowed to be held later than rules stated ( in August) due to the knock on affect of Covid . An AGM has to be held within 6 months of the end of the accounting period - which is 31 Dec for Xtract. So the AGM will need to held by 30 June.
We must have at least 3 weeks notice so I would think we will get AGM calling notice on Monday or Tuesday and the AGM will probably be held on Friday 30 June (latest possible date).
End of year results for 2022 will probably be released end of June or slightly before.
I would imagine CB will be releasing some good news before AGM (Fairbride income figures?) to try and appease the Shareholders. If he doesnt then he's in for a rough ride as I think it will be very acrimonious !
Butlerman, my view appears to be pretty similar to you. I live in hope we have something on our hands here and with the money coming in (to be confirmed?) from Manica, there is hope still (it's the hope that kills you?) for BR to be turned into a viable proposition for a major, possibly AA or another.
I appreciate the effort to get to the AGM, if you can make it. I'm grateful to all who try and hold Colin to account in a sensible way rather than celebrating a falling share price (!) I went to the last one and asked about Eureka - as long as BR doesn't go the way of that project! Completely fallen off the radar and website!
BenH. I will be looking out for the RNS announcing the AGM date. (Last year the AGM was late Aug) If nothing has changed regarding BR by then, I will make every effort to attend the AGM to quiz Colin. I am sitting on a very substantial paper loss, as I must admit I believed Colin with his ‘10p SP offer, I’d tell them where to stick it’, ‘this is a tier 1 find’, the ‘LoM will mean it’s being mined well past when we’ve gone’ etc. I do feel let down, albeit that the decision to invest so much was mine and mine alone. I’m just hoping that BR will eventually be sold, and I live in hope that I will get some of my money back. So, I’ll try to attend this year’s AGM. I’d love to see a large shareholder gathering.
Butlerman, completely agree.
This is why there absolutely has to be a huge amount of pressure applied at the AGM, from multiple shareholders.
Colin will obviously claim otherwise, but there has been a complete 180 in terms of focus on BR, progress, interview frequency, statements RE 2 MT or even decision to mine. He cannot be allowed to say it's been business as usual. The SP indicates that would be a lie and the lack of interviews indicate that would be a lie.
I would like him to be pressed and pressed again for a strategy for BR, a timeline and a project plan as it were to bring about shareholder value.
His words at the last AGM meant diddly squat and we are sitting 70% down with no progress in a year. He has done nothing at BR apart from organise a couple reports...
The silence is deafening. No update on the concentration results, nor the economic study that these would further inform. No new drilling announced, or applications seen on the Australian authority website. Colin quiet on Xtract in interviews. Not what I’d expect if we working on further proving up the resources. So, what’s going on? A non-economic prospect that quietly slips into the background, whist Xtract concentrates on developing Manica? Or discussions/ negotiations with potential buyers or JV’s on BR going on in the background that can’t be publicised? I am hoping for the latter, but I do fear the former.
The sale of BR would never be announced at this SP, you'd know it was coming though, as the SP would suddenly, inexplicably, shoot up to 5p the day before the announcement.
Howezap
It’s not dreamy at all that’s how it works. If however said warrants were 1p and below this would be a drag on sp and weighty it down.
However I this situation we have warrants 9 fold SP. So your observations are correct and we would all love that.
However this becomes harder to achieve the closer we get to expiration date if warrants. Said warrants expiration date can be extended for special circumstances. Obviously you have to have SP above set price.
>>Has been pointed out that the 8.5p and 10p warrants
Should say 5.6p and 8.5p warrants btw. ( that haven’t expired yet) 🤦♂️
Da
If I understand uk warrants correctly, they can only be exercised on the expiry date. So unless the share price exceeds the strike price of the warrants or very close to it (?) they may not all be taken up if any as is no obligation to. I still consider £4m+ for resource optimisation and upgrade, further metallurgy and bulk BOS testing (if compatible) and cost of the pre feasibility study. ( not cheap)
Means well and truly kissing goodbye to sub 1p tho unless it’s a quick dip, wham bam thank you Ma’m to significantly average down before heading off north. This time round will be off the back of far better fundamentals to support a higher mc.
Now there’s a dreamy scenario to think about over the weekend.
What's your plan for the future if your 1p actually happens Ma ?
Campaign for 0.5p ?
If the SP drops to 1p it won't stop there, I'd wait a while.
Hoping for a 30% drop in the SP is like turkeys voting for Xmas.
Has been pointed out that the 8.5p and 10p warrants for a potential £4m were subject to approval at the ‘21 AGM in late October so interestingly they may still play a part in the next push.
Hopefully with a decent economic evaluation to come from RC pit model, confirmed, meaningful income from Fairbride and some positive signs of global economic growth as a tail wind. There is plenty to work with in a new PR drive, is s big ask but have all seen how market can react, with sometimes the most innocuous news having a profound effect on buying pressure.
Xtract shares are likely traded automatically using algorithmic trading, which are designed to act in a particular way and under specific market conditions to continually create liquidity.
There must be some human oversight you would think.
Roggy, not a clue what you said but lmfao :)
"I wonder what reasons you attribute to the other numerous similar drops over recent months"
Over the last 2 months, more days than not there has been same number of buys as sells but sp has gone down. If you looked at total buys v sells over those 2 months there has not been a sell off but just low volume and when that happens MMs will keep taking it down to create volume.
We have not had any bad news over last 2 months, just low volume - most days. As soon as we got a bit of volume ask went up.
It's bad enough to wait interminably for news about this lemon that a lot of us have invested in but the merda che
scrive mamma fornaia e veramente insopportabile! Compra un milione o cento di xtr e smettila di rompere le balle e vaffan...o
A4444 re
More buys than sells and down circa 5%
Due to very low volume MMs took this down this morning to generate volume imo.
No reason for the 6% drop against those trades
I wonder what reasons you attribute to the other numerous similar drops over recent months
I think MA B is obviously stone mad, Spice Spice baby
What's your investment per 1p increment Ma Twinkler ?
Who did you have in mind ? ;)
"on the stairwell " yes that was me asking if i could get a BJ for £10 , LMFAO.