The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Hi howezap - CB has not been consistent with his messaging re the buy back clause and we are all confused and have had many a debate on the matter as a result!
Yes, as Lucky has suggested, pressing CB at the AGM for some next steps (even if they can't give timelines) would he appreciated.
I do share that same rationale steve, just picking apart CB’s comments. welcome back btw.
We, or some, or I’m maybe getting tied in knots with what’s actually required to trigger the DtM. As was part the case with the 2mt option in the agreement. I think CB has inadvertently maybe given us a bum steer in some of his podcast comments in how they have been interpreted.
End of day you can only evaluate what’s put in front of you to guide your research in trying to get a grip on what’s in needed to be done going forward.
That’s a good plan lucky for AGM please report back any clarity on the dtm, Stevem does make sense.
What financer would even look at the project with the AA buy back clause still in play? It is like putting out an invitation to tender, whilst disclosing that bids will only be considered after a preferred supplier has given first refusal. Errr... do one!
I am not an expert in any of this but I cannot imagine a team of professional miners/explorers, and their legal advisors, signing up to a clause that couldn't be trigger as soon as the first of the engineering studies (the PEA) is complete and the project is ready to move towards a PFS and more detailed mine planning. But what do I know.
Thanks Howezap,sorry for late reply, I've not been at home for the last 24 hrs
I would like a clear and definitive path from Colin at the AGM, no BS this time. What's the plan Colin?
>>Didn't iceberg say it is discounted 50%?
Yes, a buyer will only pay for what is in the JORC and inferred is discounted.
On recollection CB also said that a PFS is not a prerequisite for a sale. But a straight sale is not the immediate objective. The hurdle is to trigger the buy back to get a decision from AA first and foremost.
A PEA or similar assessment could well be then an adequate supporting study that simply means “ we are heading toward financing” and not a genuine attempt to secure it.
The ‘decision to mine’ term in the agreement is ridiculously vague and has clearly had CB in the past uncertain of what it actually means!
So I've been reading you can't use inferred in a PFS financial study.
Didn't iceberg say it is discounted 50%?
Maybe australia is different?
This is because the completion of a PFS is the minimum prerequisite for the conversion of mineral resources to mineral reserves. This also means that the economic analysis in the PFS cannot include inferred mineral resources.
Issuers will often make statements about a mineral project that does not have mineral reserves which suggest that an economic analysis of some nature has been conducted. If the project does not have a mineral reserve estimate and there is disclosure of economics of any sort, the regulator strict view is that this is a PEA and a technical report may be triggered. These statements could include anticipated production rates, capital or operating costs, mine life or projected cash flows of a project. A PEA need not be a formal study.
Examples of disclosure that could be seen to be a PEA and trigger a technical report include:
“We will likely produce 200,000 oz. silver/month in 2014”
“Capital costs will be in the range of $50 – $100 million”
“Mine life will be 10 – 11 years”
“We expect to generate $20 million in revenue”
“IRR of approximately 30%”
Therefore, it is important that issuers monitor their public disclosure of the economics of their projects in press releases, investor presentations, social media, websites or other continuous disclosure documents so as to not inadvertently trigger a technical report by making such statements if there is no technical report to back up such statements.
Aeris 6 jul >>There is no clear path / stages to go through to enable the Board to take a Decision to Mine,
I agree Aeris, although, they ‘have’ made the DtM and the awaited mining study may well be the supporting study that AA will make a decision on, implied by the big man in the latest podcast. I think what is not so clear are comments he has made previously “that AA will want to see the hard numbers” and that “they want to see we are heading toward financing! “
At the end of the day the mining study once returned will still be low level with its technical and economic assessments still insufficient to support estimation of Ore Reserves or to provide ‘assurance’ of an economic development case.
If a financier uses xtract’s own internal valuation, it will naturally have value aligned to heightened expectations, so they may prefer to have value defined by Valmin that will base it on prevailing market conditions. But without ore reserves I don’t see how a financier will even be able to value it for purpose.
Maybe the goal posts have moved since, or they are giving some of that NPV away to third party funding. Or am clueless twot way off the mark. 🤷
"The coming lithium, copper bull market will be ‘frightening’"
“But when the world normalises, the commitments that every government has made, every big business, every car company on net zero and transmission of energy holy hell … the structural bull market coming – in copper, zinc, lithium, cobalt, nickel to a degree, rare earths – is just frightening.”
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/the-coming-lithium-copper-bull-market-will-be-frightening-20230707-p5dmi7
Good morning Jezzo you asked the other day,
> Can anyone see a figure in $ what XTR have received in actual cash ?
23% of the profit is ??
>>Xtract will be reporting production and gold price statistics for Fair Bride on a quarterly basis with Xtract's 23% net profit share to be included in its annual and interim financial accounts.
???????!
???????
Fair enough Gixxer.. we all have to have a view to play the game.. and everyone entitled to their opinion..etc ..
And there is absolutely no doubt that CB has A LOT to answer for in the way he guided on Bushranger previously
PS : If this doesn't get past 2p this summer, I'm going to change from: The Birdsh_2_t factor.. to The Birdsh_x2_t factor btw !!
Would be nice to see a little re-rate but I'm not so sure that will happen in the near term - After all the bluster from Bird RE: BR I think the market has become very wary of him.
I feel it will take a few more RNSs highlighting regular income before this moves.
OFC, I'd be a happy man if we see a re-rate in the short term, I've still had enough of Bird and want out.
Copper inventory is so low now. Normally the inventory is replenished in the summer, but it doesn't seem to be materialising.
I don't think it will take much to send it rocketing.
I know many are worried of global recession, but people still need energy, green energy and EVs.
There are many countries like India, with rapid population growth and the want for modern tech.
They are currently thriving from cheap Russian energy.
Whatever reasons potential/ investors have at this stage that may or may not be causing some reluctance to buy, or current holders that are deciding to rebalance such as JS, could well cause some initial suppression in the share price.
Could be like a coiled spring, the result could be a very volatile share price, which could easily spike again once FOMO kicks in, but this time off the back of genuine price sensitive good news. ( hopefully good 😊)
NicetoMichu…..
Well something has to give. We all know the assets are worth something and even producing.
After yesterdays RNS it's very hard for me to understand people selling around these levels... eg john Swan yesterday and more selling today.... which is, so far, putting some breaks on a rally here.
(I guess there might be an element of distain/contempt towards CB from size holders whose mark to market has been hammered in the last year here, in any selling anywhere around these levels.. day traders always have some sort of impact, but their turn would be very small at this time, so they're not really a thing versus any sort of buying around this level, I'd guess.. )
I still expect this to get back to 2p + soon enough.. and as mentioned by others - eg Howzap - there may be another - good news - RNS to come ahead of AGM - eg around pre concentration down the Bush..- to help too..
2p may be incidental for plenty, granted.. but it's a start back at least..
In the round, this s/p is just too cheap versus fundamentals by most any definition, and even including the Birdsh_2_t factor, I'm expecting this rally to have legs.. and I might easily add a tranche or two more as it goes..
IMHO & DYOR
Yep, I forgot to do the forex calculation to £ !
13p approx with today's exchange rate and 1 billion share in issue. Depends on any more dilution from option etc.
Lucky520 > "Don't know what NPV will be, but I am looking for approximately $500m with a sale price of a third."
that would be around 17p a share wouldn't it ?
*and if its not that
Colin said the majors want 25% over Lif of mine.
And I imagine they won't use more than $4 LB copper. So that's what I'm looking for in the new economical model and if it is that, then I expect more drilling.
Don't know what NPV will be, but I am looking for approximately $500m with a sale price of a third.