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The big spread
I got in the car today and straight away ‘the gambler’ was playing on the radio.
I’m looking forward to next Friday, hopefully I’ll be able to stay until the end and maybe go for a drink with some afterwards!
Hi Pinocchio
Time will tell on Q2, for what it’s worth my estimate of Q2 is as follows (pre tax, I doubt we will pay CIT at 32% due to losses/allowances etc but I don’t want to guess what the ETR will be)
Production 201kg = 6462oz
Price 1925oz
Revenue = $12.4m
Prod tax = $0.8m
Opex 800oz = $5.2m
Net profit = $6.5m
XTR share = $1.5m or around £1.2m
What are you expecting?
Cheers James
Hi Howezap
I think you are maybe over complicating this, Ma is using 700/Oz in her calculations of Q1 margins which I am stating is wrong the RNS shows 1185/Oz.
Going forward of course the Op cost is subjective, but again from the most recent information we have (from RNS) is 800/Oz C1 (we know the agreement with MMP is based on cash costs). So again this seems like the logical point to based Q2 and forward estimates on?
Cheers
James
Hi James
op costs are of course variable, so are always going to be subjective leading up to audited results. They will no doubt be in that range reported though. It would be good to discuss if any reductions in costs could come from wether increasing actual throughput or increasing head grades as the lower grade stockpiles are finishing and are into the decent hard rock.
I can understand a reduction in costs could come from increased efficiency as the operation matures but by just how much will be seen.
Guy
HI All,
Just for comparison, I was recently reading a book about the geology of Cornwall where it listed all of the geological resources that have been extracted from Cornwall throughout history. To my surpsise it quoted a figure of 1 million tons of copper having been mined since Roman times. So, that would mean that BR+ Ascot together, based on the limited drilling so far conducted contain 30% more recoverable copper than all the copper ever removed from Cornwall. A county much famed for its copper mines (amongst other metals).
Question: does that make Cornwall a tier 4 county?
Howezap
What’s subjective about the Q1 Opex cost, it’s in the RNS?
Cheers
James
Thanks for your time and effort Ma in giving your forecasts for revenues, of which you have every right to use CB comments to support you figures. Also appreciate the challenges to those AISC figures that are still subjective until confirmed.
The ‘important’ thing is to keep quality dialogue going to continually stir up interest to observers in showcasing the main asset and pointing out the obvious in what makes xtract attractive right now.
Ma is top of the class for that ✅
Pinocchio, re your 4 tier dog comment you believe BR to be.
Im not challenging your opinion, but can I just ask what you are basing it on?
Not got the cash to try, not just yet...
Can get quote to sell 1m shares today, not seen that for a while
The spread is over 17% upward ask went from 1.8 to 2p bid stayed at 1.70
Mid price is 1.85
It was up by 9% without a trade
MM's trying to instigate a spike.
Up 14% this morning!!
Ma
It tells you the Opex costs in the RNS for Q1, the only uncertainty in the 1185/Oz is wether it includes production taxes.
For Q2 forward, 800/Oz C1 is the cost shown in the 2022 annual reports so seems a good place to start with any forecast (my understanding is C1 don’t include production taxes).
Regards
James
" so I can't understand why Colin would give incorrect information to shareholders ESPECIALLY since there seems to be lots of uncertainty amongst shareholders. "
SMIRK....
Am I missing something the Q1 production update had Opex costs at $1,185/oz so I’m baffled why posters are using 700/Oz in Q1?
The annual report states plant C1 costs are 800/Oz (which I understand are pre production tax), so think this is a reasonable estimate for steady state production.
Fair play to you Ma Baker.. you've done some very good analysis on Fairbride gold revenues recently.. much appreciated !
( And I'll say nice things about you only going forward now )
This shows that, on fundamentals, there's clearly plenty of opportunity for this s/p to rally decently/strongly thru the rest of summer... and beyond....
IMHO & DYOR
Lovely Twinkle.
Will CB be showing these figures at the AGM ?
They need to be official to have an effect on the company fundamentals
Jezzoooooooooo
Someone expecting news
Hi there,
I may have this wrong but I think your calculation for nett profit margin ((2,264,956 - 958,098) / (2,264,956)) ×100 actually adds up to 57.7% rather than 42.3%.
Will
SP: more Pathetic than Stratospheric ! ! !
Dani... "Nett profit Margin is 42.3%"
How much of that reaches the XTR bank account ? We hold shares in XTR not the subsidiary.
That's cleared it up an absolute treat . Thank you.
Not sure if this has been posted before
empressroyalty.com/site/assets/fi…
This got to 2.3p a few months back when we had an early view on good monthly revenue soon coming from manica hard rock gold.. we now have plenty more clarity on that, including in RNS.. so I was expecting/hoping for a rally to 2.5p ish + thru this summer.. still am .. but such rallies happen in their own way / shape / form ... and nothing is guaranteed.. not least as the CB annoyance factor is an obvious counter to the strong fundamentals here .. and short term traders will always have some impact, and that growing incrementally as a rally grows....