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This share price is as much about the potential positive african cash flow as anything else right now.
A good prognosis on Manica income of a few £100ks per month by year end would make a massive difference.
One thing for sure there seems to be a lot of work to be done to prove the 2mt - as far as I can see holes 5 and 6 didn't really add much to that prospect - but the second drilling programme, surveys and 3d modelling stand a very good chance of doing so - given time and probably some more money than already raised - so it is really all about Manica. If thats a year away then yes a raise pretty likely at some point, so that news will be pivotal - the delay isn't encouraging tbh
I would like to think that the annual report has been delayed so that it can contain a comprehensive update on all fronts, including several revenue streams that are now on line, but I have been known to be over-optimistic in the past, so it could simply be because the lock-downs in Africa have brought everything to a halt...
After the last raise there were a couple of good estimates made that put us out of cash by early 2022 im sure...... but of course they assumed African spend and ignored African revenue.
My feeling is any raise decision would be made at the back end of the year depending upon Fairbride production..... I hesitate to suggest Guy Fawkes or even tailings processing can be included here as I've been expecting to hear about production from both for 6 months now....
Jwoz,
I can't add a lot to the discussion but I do agree it would be good to know where we are at cash wise and expenditure wise on Bushranger. I suspect alluvials will have added cost in terms of overheads. There was also mention of the fact that the core prep at Racecourse was working out quite expensive. The senior geo budget had been $160k so I imagine the site/licence overheads and salaries for 12 months are probably close to $1m. I'm not sure how much work would be involved in any reports to be submitted to gain approval for drilling. Add to that AEM and IP surveys, mine study and 20km of drilling core prep and assay results... I think we could get through a few million quite quickly.
i didnt get vibe Africa was sucking away at funding, but of course I may be wrong.
Drilling paid up front would kill it for sure... however its a net : net I suppose.
we either have money in bank, 21m MCAP and a massive drilling programme ahead which is exciting but needs paying for
or
we have pre paid drilling and have a 29m MCAP which could and should go one way only once the programmes forecasted results start to arrive
there was a bit of chat a while back (remember Ella being involved) around how much their bank was drained with phase 1 which was funded for the initial holes but the placing then helped them expand to the extra holes... i seem to remember it being concluded (speculatively) that there could be c3m left from the total they had to spend... using the indicative drill price per metre
guess work though.
am neither in the know nor an expert... hence fag packet comment.
seems we agree loosely on the sentiment I had here re where things are. which is encouraging (to quote big col)
leosayer... I missed out at 3.375 (only just though) ;-)
L ...3.375 ;)
I thought CB said he had to pay drill contractors in part advance to secure services due to high demand? I may be wrong about that but that;s in the back of my mind.
The African assets would have taken a reasonable amount from the two placings and dont forget we are running at a loss as a company, so I would be surprised if we have got £5M left. This is why I think FB income before the end of the year, is important.
If we dont get any additional income by November I think we will get another raise.
If so, the good news is that CB will be ramping away in September /October driving the sp up !
It was it seems always the way with XTR that it is darkest before the dawn. The current SP will soon be forgotten as a new day starts. I know this is stupid to say this but I honestly believe the current buying opportunity that has presented itself could not have come at a better time as the news flow over the rest of the year will see the SP at many multiples of where we are at now. I will call 3.4p the bottom.
Hi Jwoz
I’m not disputing your logic as I agree there is POTENTIALLY serious money to made here.
However I would guess that cash is significantly less than £8.5m, maybe more like £5m. My number is no more accurate than yours as I don’t have inside knowledge obviously. But I assume things like IP surveys, expanded teams costs, open pit models, drilling in Eureka (plus open pit prep), plant in Kalengwa (CB said a small plant was being built in his interview this week, I have in my notes from the TW interview that a small plant would cost approx $1.1m).
Hopefully we get a up to date cash balance along with the annual results although I’m not holding my breath.
Cheers
James
good to see us up. i was thinking through some numbers this morning which i thought might be worth sharing.
following placings (5+5.5), after Phase 1 drilling, we have c£8.5m sat on our balance sheet in cash. call it £8m to be safe.
we have a MCAP of £29m at current level.
which when reconciled actually means our non cash MCAP is £21m. that's £21m for all the African portfolio of assets and every bit of revenue they already produce and the increase that will happen later this year and into the future. Along with the entire Bushranger asset - racecourse, footrot, etc - which includes everything we know already and what it could become.
£21m is absurd IMHO. and makes me very excited about what lies ahead after this "quiet before storm" period of lull and frustration passes and the summer for XTR really kicks off.
a Friday thought there for anyone who may benefit or be interested. am sure many know this already and also know a lot more.
again good luck to all. am gonna take a back seat chat wise for the ride but really appreciate everyone's insight and am looking forward to following this board over the summer as i get a lot of value from the contributors.